Bitcoin Daily Brief · 2026-11-11 · at least 24 hours delayed
Bitcoin ETF withdrawals shrink, but FBTC adds to the drag
Evidence cutoff: 2026-11-11 06:00:00 UTC
Report saved: 2026-11-11 06:05:09 UTC
Editorial saved: 2026-11-11 06:05:44 UTC
IBIT redemptions eased, while withdrawals from FBTC left the other funds collectively negative rather than offsetting the largest fund.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs reported net withdrawals of $95 million in the latest session, down from $201 million previously. The smaller withdrawal eases the immediate drain through this channel, but extends the outflow streak to 4 consecutive reported sessions; it is not renewed demand.
IBIT accounted for $78.2 million of withdrawals and FBTC another $36.8 million, partly offset by $20.0 million of subscriptions to MSBT. Unlike the previous session, funds outside IBIT were collectively negative. The improvement therefore reflects smaller IBIT redemptions, not broader subscriptions. Reported zeros elsewhere remain unconfirmed, limiting conclusions about participation.
Net withdrawals over 7 calendar days still total $1.06 billion. The next completed ETF reporting session provides the immediate test: a net inflow would end the withdrawal streak. Confirmed subscriptions across several funds would strengthen the case for improving demand beyond relief from fewer redemptions.
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Signals can share inputs; counts are not independent confirmations. Sources, units and observation times must be checked in the underlying evidence.
Macro conditions
Coverage: available. Comparable with the previous endpoint.
- US M2 +5.7% year-on-year · money supply expands — bullish
- Nexus stress index 0.17 · subdued market strain — bullish
- US 10-year real yield 2.66% · a high hurdle for risk assets — bearish
- Dollar index/proxy +0.62% · 24h · dollar firms — bearish
- Economic surprise: US Core CPI m/m · +50% versus consensus — neutral
ETF demand
Coverage: available. Comparable with the previous endpoint.
- ETF flow acceleration strengthens by $1019M versus three days earlier · session 2026-11-10 — bullish
- 33% of active funds flow against the aggregate direction · session 2026-11-10 — bullish
- ETF outflows across 4 consecutive observed sessions · session 2026-11-10 — bearish
- ETF net outflow $1064M · 7 calendar days · session 2026-11-10 — bearish
- IBIT accounts for 58% of absolute fund flows · ETFs net outflow · session 2026-11-10 — bearish
Price structure
Coverage: available. Comparable with the previous endpoint.
- Price tests the pivot · latest close rose — bullish
- Hidden bearish divergence · price lower high, RSI higher high — bearish
- Trend aligned downward · price -1.0% versus EMA200; EMA20 below EMA50 — bearish
- MACD histogram -370.8955 · momentum below the signal line — bearish
- Classic Ichimoku · price below cloud — bearish
- Break-of-structure bearish · close broke 76264 — bearish
- Weekly Crypto Ichimoku · below cloud — bearish
Prediction markets
Coverage: available. Comparable with the previous endpoint.
- Selected contract Up probability 82% · upper band — bullish
- 4 research-shortlisted wallets observed across 1 daily BTC contract — informational
On-chain valuation
Coverage: available. Comparable with the previous endpoint.
- MVRV-Z 0.65 · bottom watch — bullish
- Reserve Risk 0.000550 · bottom watch, deep value — bullish
- Stablecoin/BTC market-cap ratio 16.6% · upper band — bullish
- Tracked-exchange net inflow $428M · 7d — bearish
Positioning
Coverage: available. Comparable with the previous endpoint.
- DVOL 39.4 · subdued 30-day implied volatility — bullish
- Signed delta-weighted OI -10652 · put-side delta outweighs calls — bullish
- Accounts lean long · long/short ratio 2.79 — bearish
Sentiment
Coverage: available. Comparable with the previous endpoint.
- F&G 29/100 · fear holds the mood — bullish
Coverage and historical checks
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