PREXEL — AI_BUILDOUT · Issue No. 60 (daily)

Period: 2026-10-30 → 2026-10-30

Context hash: a8efc2f23f0a4b4b0208f5d18102ac3607ac96d0162f6053c8c43d576f3b9daa

Published Changes in This Issue Period

Open patterns

• FOUNDRY_VS_SEMICONDUCTOR_MARKET_DIVERGENCE — conflict across Capital markets + Supply chain; open since 17 Oct.

Evidence and call changes

• Semiconductors vs S&P 500: ▼ Bearish — semiconductor equity leadership relative to the broad US market (Near term); New evidence; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-10-30T04:24:50.817779+00:00.
• CLO BBB vs AAA tranches: ◆ Mixed — marginal risk appetite in the AI buildout's securitized-debt channel (Near term); New evidence; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-10-30T04:24:50.817779+00:00.
• AI-complex correlation regime: ◆ Mixed — single-narrative fragility of the US-listed AI-buildout complex (Medium term); Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-10-30T04:24:50.817779+00:00.
• High-yield vs investment-grade credit: ▼ Bearish — public-credit risk appetite relevant to AI-buildout financing (Near term); New evidence; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-10-30T04:24:50.817779+00:00.
• Equal-weight vs cap-weight S&P: ▲ Bullish — US equity breadth relative to capitalization-weighted equities (Near term); New evidence; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-10-30T04:24:50.817779+00:00.
• Nasdaq 100 vs S&P 500: ▼ Bearish — mega-cap concentration in US equities (Near term); New evidence; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-10-30T04:24:50.817779+00:00.
• Utilities vs S&P 500: ▲ Bullish — utilities repricing relative to the broad market (Near term); New evidence; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-10-30T04:24:50.817779+00:00.
• VIX term structure: ▲ Bullish — near-term public-market risk appetite (Near term); New evidence; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-10-30T04:24:50.817779+00:00.
• Implied OpenAI valuation: ⊘ No read — market-implied OpenAI IPO valuation (Near term); Evidence revised; cause unclassified. Published 2026-10-30T04:24:50.817779+00:00.
• Data-centre landlords vs S&P 500: ▲ Bullish — listed data-centre landlord pricing relative to the broad market (Near term); New evidence; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-10-30T04:24:50.817779+00:00.
• Hyperscalers vs S&P 500: ▼ Bearish — public-market pricing of the hyperscaler cohort relative to the broad market (Near term); New evidence; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-10-30T04:24:50.817779+00:00.
• Neoclouds vs S&P 500: ▼ Bearish — public-market pricing of the neocloud cohort relative to the broad market (Near term); New evidence; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-10-30T04:24:50.817779+00:00.
• AI power names vs S&P 500: ▼ Bearish — public-market pricing of the AI-power cohort relative to the broad market (Near term); Source correction; New evidence; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-10-30T04:24:50.817779+00:00.
• Inference demand — OpenRouter: ▲ Bullish — OpenRouter public-app inference activity (Near term); Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-10-30T04:24:50.817779+00:00.
• Inference demand concentration: ◆ Mixed — durability of routed inference demand (Near term); Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-10-30T04:24:50.817779+00:00.
• Inference price cuts (like-for-like): ▼ Bearish — like-for-like inference pricing for compute sellers (Near term); Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-10-30T04:24:50.817779+00:00.
• Effective inference price: ▼ Bearish — inference unit economics for compute sellers (Near term); Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-10-30T04:24:50.817779+00:00.
• Open-weights token share: ▼ Bearish — substitution pressure on closed-model pricing power (Near term); Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-10-30T04:24:50.817779+00:00.
• CAISO day-ahead power prices: ◆ Mixed — California data-centre siting economics at day-ahead power prices (Near term); Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-10-30T04:24:50.817779+00:00.
• CAISO implied heat rate: ◆ Mixed — California data-centre power economics net of fuel (Near term); Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-10-30T04:24:50.817779+00:00.
• PJM load-growth difference: ▼ Bearish — PJM load-growth difference versus CISO/ERCO (Near term); Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-10-30T04:24:50.817779+00:00.
• Dominion total electricity demand: ▲ Bullish — Dominion total electricity demand (Near term); Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-10-30T04:24:50.817779+00:00.
• N. Virginia power basis: ◆ Mixed — Northern Virginia data-centre power economics (Near term); Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-10-30T04:24:50.817779+00:00.
• Nuclear fuel cycle vs S&P 500: ▼ Bearish — public-market pricing of the long-duration nuclear power cohort relative to the broad market (Near term); New evidence; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-10-30T04:24:50.817779+00:00.
• PJM day-ahead vs real-time prices: ◆ Mixed — PJM real-time power-price premium over day-ahead (Near term); Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-10-30T04:24:50.817779+00:00.
• BDCs vs investment-grade credit: ▼ Bearish — listed BDC pricing relative to investment-grade credit (Near term); New evidence; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-10-30T04:24:50.817779+00:00.

Today in Brief

• Recorded changed reads: 26 chart-local read(s); comparison coverage is stated in the published briefing above.
• Current evidence coverage: 30 usable / 21 no read — 10 bullish, 12 bearish, 8 mixed. These are coverage counts, not an aggregate market signal.
• Open cross-domain events: 1
• Filed capital-structure candidates (trailing 90d): 7
• Forced-flow events (trailing 30d): 0
• Open monitored opportunities: 0

Cross-Domain Events

Open

Recently resolved (trailing 14d)

Forced Flows & Opportunities

No forced-flow events fired in the trailing 30 days.

No open opportunities.

No opportunities settled in the trailing 30 days.

Filed Capital-Structure Developments

2 confirmed fact(s), 4 awaiting review, and 1 rejected match(es). Pending candidates are not confirmed transactions.

• NVIDIA · Purchase obligations total: 366000000000.00 USD; disclosed 2026-08-26; as of 2026-07-26.
• NVIDIA · Debt issuance: 25000000000.00 USD; disclosed 2026-06-15; as of 2026-06-18.
• Review queue: ORACLE — Capex commitment; MICROSOFT — Capex commitment; MICROSOFT — Debt refinancing maturity; MICROSOFT — Capex commitment.

Full filing links, excerpts, reviewer facts, and methodology are in the appendix.

Evidence Appendix — All Directional Observations

B200 vs H100 rental price — ⊘ No read

• subject: frontier-vs-installed-base GPU rental pricing
• chart: compute_b200_h100
• horizon: Near term
• data through: 2026-10-29
• why no read: No qualifying data yet.
• reasons: provider population incomplete; not enough ratio history yet
• data quality: advertised prices, not closed deals; provider coverage is incomplete; affected population measures are unavailable; single source or empty

GPU rental availability — ⊘ No read

• subject: GPU rental-provider pricing power
• chart: compute_availability
• horizon: Near term
• data through: 2026-10-29
• why no read: No qualifying data yet.
• reasons: availability unavailable; provider population incomplete
• data quality: advertised prices, not closed deals; provider coverage is incomplete; affected population measures are unavailable; single source or empty

GPU marketplace depth — ⊘ No read

• subject: GPU rental lessor pricing power
• chart: compute_gpu_depth
• horizon: Near term
• data through: 2026-10-29
• why no read: No qualifying data yet.
• reasons: not enough marketplace history yet; provider population incomplete
• data quality: advertised prices, not closed deals; provider coverage is incomplete; affected population measures are unavailable; single marketplace panel; single source or empty

GPU resale values — ⊘ No read

• subject: GPU asset residual values
• chart: compute_residual_value
• horizon: Medium term
• data through: 2026-10-29
• why no read: No qualifying data yet.
• reasons: secondary-market data not yet available
• data quality: source not yet wired

GPU spot vs contract pricing — ⊘ No read

• subject: near-term GPU rental pricing
• chart: compute_spot_contract
• horizon: Near term
• data through: 2026-10-29
• why no read: No qualifying data yet.
• reasons: provider population incomplete; not enough term-structure history yet
• data quality: advertised prices, not closed deals; provider coverage is incomplete; affected population measures are unavailable; single source or empty

H100 spot rental price — ⊘ No read

• subject: H100 rental-provider pricing power
• chart: compute_h100_spot
• horizon: Near term
• data through: 2026-10-29
• why no read: No qualifying data yet.
• reasons: provider population incomplete; spot-price trend not yet available
• data quality: advertised prices, not closed deals; provider coverage is incomplete; affected population measures are unavailable; single source or empty

Inference demand — OpenRouter — ▲ Bullish

• subject: OpenRouter public-app inference activity
• chart: compute_inference_demand
• domain: Compute
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-10-29 / 2026-10-30 04:21:03+00:00
• interpretation: Up 2.4% over the last seven snapshots.
• evidence: Seven-snapshot token-activity change: 2.38%.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: The activity trend crossing the opposite 2% threshold.
• data quality: token counts differ across models; public apps only; rolling 30-day window; source records not yet linked
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': False, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 2.0, 'unit': '%', 'value': 2.380200912117192, 'window': 'seven_snapshots'}, 'band_pct': 2.0, 'token_change_7d_pct': 2.380200912117192, 'top_n': 100, 'total_requests': 3610466901, 'total_tokens': 259724529807029}

Inference demand concentration — ◆ Mixed

• subject: durability of routed inference demand
• chart: compute_demand_concentration
• domain: Compute
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-10-29 / 2026-10-30 04:21:04+00:00
• interpretation: Top-10 app concentration is inside its registered 14-day band.
• evidence: Fourteen-day concentration change: +0.13pp.; Top-10 apps' share of top-100 attributed tokens: 80.1%.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: The 14-day top-10 concentration change crosses the opposite 1.5-point band.
• data quality: public apps only; rolling 30-day window; source records not yet linked
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': False, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 1.5, 'unit': 'pp', 'value': 0.13064397221407376, 'window': 'change_14d'}, 'band_pp': 1.5, 'top10_app_token_share': 80.05885354064877, 'top10_share_change_14d_pp': 0.13064397221407376}

Inference price cuts (like-for-like) — ▼ Bearish

• subject: like-for-like inference pricing for compute sellers
• chart: compute_price_cuts
• domain: Compute
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-10-29 / 2026-10-30 04:21:04+00:00
• interpretation: Catalog prices on the fixed model basket are falling through their band — true price cuts, mix shift excluded, are eroding per-token seller economics.
• evidence: Cut/raise events vs the prior catalog snapshot: 12 cuts, 8 raises.; Fixed-basket price at prior-day token weights: $0.639/Mtok.; Seven-day like-for-like change: -5.01%.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: The 7-day like-for-like fixed-basket price change crosses the opposite 3% band.
• data quality: fixed basket, prior-day token weights; a single router's traffic; source records not yet linked
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': False, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 3.0, 'unit': '%', 'value': -5.005440751775458, 'window': 'change_7d'}, 'band_pct': 3.0, 'fixed_basket_model_count': 345, 'fixed_basket_price_usd_mtok': 0.638875031310887, 'like_for_like_change_7d_pct': -5.005440751775458, 'price_cut_model_count': 12, 'price_raise_model_count': 8}

Effective inference price — ▼ Bearish

• subject: inference unit economics for compute sellers
• chart: compute_inference_price
• domain: Compute
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-10-29 / 2026-10-30 04:21:04+00:00
• interpretation: The effective inference price is falling through its band — per-token seller economics are eroding.
• evidence: Seven-day effective-price change: -11.93%.; Token-weighted effective price: $0.633/Mtok.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: The 7-day effective-price change crosses the opposite 8% band.
• data quality: a panel, not a census; a single router's traffic; source records not yet linked; token-weighted blend across models
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': False, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 8.0, 'unit': '%', 'value': -11.933054198041715, 'window': 'change_7d'}, 'band_pct': 8.0, 'effective_price_change_7d_pct': -11.933054198041715, 'effective_price_usd_mtok': 0.6332552559521732, 'matched_model_count': 345, 'total_standard_tokens': 179888925383182, 'unmatched_token_share': 3.635351687203082}

Model launch cadence — ▲ Bullish

• subject: frontier-model supply cadence
• chart: compute_model_launches
• domain: Compute
• horizon: Medium term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-01 / 2026-10-29 04:18:06+00:00
• interpretation: New-model listings are running ahead of their trailing baseline — frontier-model supply cadence is accelerating.
• evidence: Prior twelve-month baseline: 19.9 listings/month.; Relative change: +154.4%.; Trailing three complete months: 152 new listings (50.7/month).
• conflicting evidence: Retroactive months undercount models delisted before the first catalog snapshot, which biases the trailing-vs-baseline comparison toward acceleration.
• What would change this call: The trailing-3-month listing rate crosses the opposite 25% band versus the prior-12-month baseline.
• data quality: a single router's traffic; source records not yet linked; retroactive series — survivorship-biased
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': False, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 25.0, 'unit': '%', 'value': 154.3933054393305, 'window': 'rate_3mo_vs_prior_12mo'}, 'band_rel_pct': 25.0, 'baseline_12mo_rate': 19.916666666666668, 'listing_rate_change_pct': 154.3933054393305, 'newest_complete_month': '2026-09-01', 'trailing_3mo_listings': 152, 'trailing_3mo_rate': 50.666666666666664}

Open-weights token share — ▼ Bearish

• subject: substitution pressure on closed-model pricing power
• chart: compute_openweights_share
• domain: Compute
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-10-29 / 2026-10-30 04:21:04+00:00
• interpretation: The open-weights token share is rising through its band — substitution pressure on closed-model pricing power is building.
• evidence: Fourteen-day share change: +9.82pp.; Open-weights share of routed standard tokens: 71.4%.
• conflicting evidence: The Chinese-lab token share moved the opposite way over the same window (-2.40pp).
• What would change this call: The 14-day open-weights share change crosses the opposite 2-point band.
• data quality: a panel, not a census; a single router's traffic; source records not yet linked
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': False, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 2.0, 'unit': 'pp', 'value': 9.81821932952505, 'window': 'change_14d'}, 'band_pp': 2.0, 'chinese_lab_share_change_14d_pp': -2.4004359462861657, 'chinese_lab_token_share': 69.11249129295167, 'matched_model_count': 345, 'openweights_share_change_14d_pp': 9.81821932952505, 'openweights_token_share': 71.4191561940725}

TSMC monthly revenue — ▲ Bullish

• subject: leading foundry demand represented by TSMC monthly revenue
• chart: supply_tsmc_revenue
• domain: Supply chain
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-10-29 / 2026-10-16 16:00:00+00:00
• interpretation: Up 54.6% over the last year.
• evidence: tsmc_revenue published year-on-year growth: 54.65%.
• conflicting evidence: Month-on-month growth has the opposite sign at -0.57%.
• What would change this call: Year-over-year growth crossing zero.
• data quality: source publication time unverified
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'mom_pct': -0.5726315925897248, 'source_period': '2026-09-01', 'value': 511857399000.0, 'yoy_pct': 54.64861207105231}

Korean chip exports — ⊘ No read

• subject: Korean semiconductor export demand
• chart: supply_korea_semiconductor_exports
• horizon: Near term
• data through: 2026-10-29
• why no read: No qualifying data yet.
• reasons: monthly growth figure not yet available
• data quality: none

CAISO day-ahead power prices — ◆ Mixed

• subject: California data-centre siting economics at day-ahead power prices
• chart: power_lmp_caiso
• domain: Power
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-10-29 / 2026-10-30 04:21:05+00:00
• interpretation: California day-ahead power prices are tracking their prior two-week average.
• evidence: CAISO NP15 DA 7-day average $46.62/MWh vs prior 14-day $46.85/MWh (-0.5%)
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: The seven-day average day-ahead price re-crosses the registered ±15% band versus the prior fourteen-day average.
• data quality: secondary AI region — proxy read; source records not yet linked
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': True, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 15.0, 'unit': '%', 'value': -0.5059697037878629, 'window': 'mean_7d_vs_prior_14d'}, 'band_pct': 15.0, 'caiso_da_7d_avg_usd_mwh': 46.61541886904762, 'caiso_da_prior_14d_avg_usd_mwh': 46.85247821428572, 'caiso_da_trend_pct': -0.5059697037878629}

CAISO implied heat rate — ◆ Mixed

• subject: California data-centre power economics net of fuel
• chart: power_heat_rate_caiso
• domain: Power
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-10-29 / 2026-10-30 04:21:05+00:00
• interpretation: The CAISO implied heat rate is tracking its prior two-week average.
• evidence: CAISO NP15 DA implied heat rate 7-day average 17.08 MMBtu/MWh vs prior 14-day 14.92 (+14.4%)
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: The seven-day average implied heat rate re-crosses the registered ±15% band versus the prior fourteen-day average.
• data quality: Henry Hub gas proxy, not local basis; latest gas print lags the power print; secondary AI region — proxy read; source records not yet linked
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': True, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 15.0, 'unit': '%', 'value': 14.43783569496246, 'window': 'mean_7d_vs_prior_14d'}, 'band_pct': 15.0, 'caiso_heat_rate_7d_avg': 17.078028953308813, 'caiso_heat_rate_prior_14d_avg': 14.923411343457088, 'caiso_heat_rate_trend_pct': 14.43783569496246, 'gas_print_max_lag_days': 2}

PJM load-growth difference — ▼ Bearish

• subject: PJM load-growth difference versus CISO/ERCO
• chart: power_dc_load_premium
• domain: Power
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-10-29 / 2026-10-30 00:56:45+00:00
• interpretation: PJM total load growth is below the CISO/ERCO regional mean by more than the registered band.
• evidence: PJM 7-day mean weather-blind YoY +1.21% vs control mean +2.77% (gap -1.56pp)
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: The seven-day mean PJM-minus-control YoY growth gap re-crosses the registered ±1.5-point band.
• data quality: regional comparison; causes of the difference are not identified; source records not yet linked; weather-blind same-week YoY method
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': True, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 1.5, 'unit': 'pp', 'value': -1.561725268898661, 'window': 'yoy_gap_7d_mean'}, 'band_pp': 1.5, 'ciso_load_yoy_7d_pct': -0.08428368659745344, 'dc_load_premium_pp': -1.561725268898661, 'erco_load_yoy_7d_pct': 5.624121626466443, 'pjm_load_yoy_7d_pct': 1.2081937010358337}

Dominion total electricity demand — ▲ Bullish

• subject: Dominion total electricity demand
• chart: power_load_nova
• domain: Power
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-10-29 / 2026-10-30 04:21:05+00:00
• interpretation: Dominion total electricity demand is growing versus the same week last year, above the registered band.
• evidence: Dominion-zone 7-day mean weather-blind YoY +8.34% (n=5)
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: The seven-day mean weather-blind year-over-year growth re-crosses the registered ±3% band.
• data quality: total regional demand; data-centre consumption is not isolated; source records not yet linked; weather-blind same-week YoY method
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': True, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 3.0, 'unit': '%', 'value': 8.342540079448327, 'window': 'yoy_7d_mean'}, 'band_pct': 3.0, 'nova_load_yoy_7d_pct': 8.342540079448327, 'nova_load_yoy_window_obs': 5}

N. Virginia power basis — ◆ Mixed

• subject: Northern Virginia data-centre power economics
• chart: power_basis_nova
• domain: Power
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-10-29 / 2026-10-30 04:21:05+00:00
• interpretation: Dominion-zone congestion is not unusually elevated.
• evidence: Dominion versus Western Hub basis z=-0.307
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: The basis z-score falls below the registered congestion threshold.
• data quality: descriptive z not calibrated; source records not yet linked
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'baseline_n': 53, 'dc_basis_z': -0.3074720684381828, 'z_min_observations': 30}

Nuclear fuel cycle vs S&P 500 — ▼ Bearish

• subject: public-market pricing of the long-duration nuclear power cohort relative to the broad market
• chart: power_nuclear_spx
• domain: Power
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-10-29 / 2026-10-30 04:23:22+00:00
• interpretation: Down 10.9% over the last 30 days.
• evidence: 30-day relative-price change: -10.94%.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: A 30-day move through the opposite 2.0% threshold.
• data quality: correlation, not exposure evidence; price action, not fundamentals
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': False, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 2.0, 'unit': '%', 'value': -10.942260771984024, 'window': 'change_30d'}, 'band_pct': 2.0, 'change_30d_pct': -10.942260771984024, 'components': ['BWXT.US', 'CCJ.US', 'GSPC.INDX', 'LEU.US', 'OKLO.US', 'URNM.US'], 'series': 'BASKET_NUCLEAR_SPX', 'source_lineage': {'adjustment_snapshots': {'BWXT.US': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 188, 'epoch_values_hash': '7d29af074c1c533e0e740a108a14256fd46a9e35708efe3a4f898efe056e0c82', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-08-19', 'history_values_hash': '0c9516491be2824456c31c014e703759f9795cf0a63ca4168dfce7fe75c31af1', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-08-19', 'row_count': 552, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': '9db22d377a28a05fe4eb9fcc07bba3d6302a2b4a82ade509cb5d7fc77c98281c', 'symbol': 'BWXT.US'}, 'CCJ.US': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 188, 'epoch_values_hash': 'd5f48feac2d2db5042b012a28f7da522e44d329fcb0cfbfabe74f28221c4690f', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-08-19', 'history_values_hash': '55fd735f9477745261abcb389d2bf8692fa280c0e3e2ce379d286fa173e57a64', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-08-19', 'row_count': 552, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': '872e988769c82ebbc4094eb21e54131f74acca729363aff413c784d24d283594', 'symbol': 'CCJ.US'}, 'GSPC.INDX': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 188, 'epoch_values_hash': '7a2cd028562996315825f91508cf1cb1114df3240ec6bcf713cc590c151f48da', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-08-19', 'history_values_hash': '185868c62fa3e5f5764390b9dca056e7a098a5b34979c93a9f225616e7c694e1', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-08-19', 'row_count': 552, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': 'ad3ee42031dd5acc3309819de9b4f38ab779bb368e6eb3f764999f4d6f6130b1', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, 'LEU.US': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 188, 'epoch_values_hash': 'a443e3b122b0f97dd8ce3ecf16f20673eace653746a699b20214552a98e2cbf9', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-08-19', 'history_values_hash': '98554e7c97c5a06b606a8abf0b72bee761042ec9028caa4ed5a38ca12643b899', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-08-19', 'row_count': 552, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': 'a0d695c9a0ee1a6bcbf4a23d2f80d3a38cdfbcebba6f0ae99536f3653ac9362f', 'symbol': 'LEU.US'}, 'OKLO.US': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 188, 'epoch_values_hash': '1bc402a4dcd05a031033a1bd4ee9f956db3c3ae33dcc7692d7eb6c0bd14f10e3', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-08-19', 'history_values_hash': 'e02f4259db6297bd15384fe518496ba13365d6d044c1b6871f8481dcb93e8ed4', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-08-19', 'row_count': 552, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': '9b3f3fbf8871f09c59b59b3d6111296064e6017cd0623716c9ef3ec7a7541d15', 'symbol': 'OKLO.US'}, 'URNM.US': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 188, 'epoch_values_hash': 'deaacccc2afa40ba0dc67c1c685b5eec748b954baedc5be41af7112f4f0b012a', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-08-19', 'history_values_hash': 'fdc27ac8217910a395c5fe9f264190613901e96c35664b478953e01cdc42a8bf', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-08-19', 'row_count': 552, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': '07e581a912075896cd93507810bbb4abe00aa73a95ecb00b5cac1f1e05eb119e', 'symbol': 'URNM.US'}}, 'comparison_date': '2026-09-29', 'definition': {'captured_outputs': ['value', 'change_30d_pct'], 'denominator': ['GSPC.INDX'], 'derivation_version': 'dependency_clocks_and_adjustment_batches_v3', 'minimum_denominator': 1, 'minimum_numerator': 3, 'numerator': ['CCJ.US', 'LEU.US', 'OKLO.US', 'BWXT.US', 'URNM.US'], 'rebase': True, 'rebase_epoch': '2026-02-02'}, 'first_observed_at': '2026-10-30 04:23:30.173000+00:00', 'inputs': {'comparison': [{'as_of': '2026-09-29', 'reference': 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'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:b1d44d71ac8df19c587470e3fe274aec79c9d15bf14b9679a3a3dd03ac187f36:93f3711098bad0a38f65f186ae4e778032a3461d05cac4e25ca56d7b0ace511b', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-10-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:bf2bc5cf764a03a6b79730947f9cfe092fba3f2ff0fb3b2a9a736ad77cc5ffe2:d039923589f3eeb1048ae627d18b29527217f6a1639e72e89c049c5d508ab9f8', 'symbol': 'LEU.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-10-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:24054be22d252b0760b7c71207931ba4d6e092761553bd57f50db13266219482:8868697a48188bc4be45cdabfc9b3014b55bd26b380368d4a3d92ce59fc07b71', 'symbol': 'OKLO.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-10-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:7852627f5553bd1bbe4ffb0d22a116abd93ea5967f4d241d74fe7a90b8aadb70:36ca97e5c971d5f5a64d4ee3874ec0b223bc59872766253fd30787ab10b8d53c', 'symbol': 'URNM.US'}], 'rebase': [{'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 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'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:d41391feee78b1d017c0c52d46974cb781b52bb16d9c22309e57ebc90cc13706:5a4ac18ae747f192cb8a6dac5abed8280b1e5faec2edd1206a976a7d2ec7ffbf', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:f1a4182dd33837140a1c078a21e9e113541580f17a60fc01e9e79c7607b64a7f:67d6ae2583ac46d6a752c21704d1d8cea3f46d1d3d53156cb047df471150fb24', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:f37cf4be570ed6b975614fc8ada57a0e02e2a79ffa05630b7d6cb96cc70d5daa:9804a4346e4bccd6e98114662ea577fda8bce7b38569879c634cd6e336301771'], 'transform_version': 'market-series-lineage-2026-09-20-v2'}, 'value': 50.04856455861278}

PJM electricity demand — ⊘ No read

• subject: PJM electricity demand
• chart: power_load_pjm
• horizon: Near term
• data through: 2026-10-29
• why no read: PJM load z-score is withheld: the 28-day weekday baseline has at most four observations.
• reasons: weekday-baseline rule withheld: four observations cannot support this statistical read
• data quality: insufficient z sample; total regional demand; data-centre consumption is not isolated; weekday baseline; weather effects not isolated

PJM day-ahead vs real-time prices — ◆ Mixed

• subject: PJM real-time power-price premium over day-ahead
• chart: power_da_rt_spread
• domain: Power
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-10-29 / 2026-10-30 04:21:05+00:00
• interpretation: The real-time minus day-ahead power-price spread is not unusually elevated.
• evidence: Seven-day DA/RT spread bias z=0.217
• conflicting evidence: A price spread does not measure a load forecast error; supply outages, congestion and fuel costs can also change it.
• What would change this call: The spread-bias z-score falls below the registered threshold.
• data quality: descriptive z not calibrated; price spread not load forecast error; source records not yet linked; weekly mean scaled by daily spread std
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'baseline_n': 41, 'current_window_days': 7, 'current_window_min_observations': 3, 'current_window_n': 6, 'da_rt_spread_bias': 23.300114381944443, 'da_rt_spread_bias_z': 0.21736987030635052, 'z_min_observations': 30}

Data-centre power capacity delivery — ⊘ No read

• subject: AI data-centre capacity delivery
• chart: power_capacity_delivery
• horizon: Structural
• data through: 2026-10-29
• why no read: Capacity filings not yet wired in.
• reasons: capacity filings not yet wired in
• data quality: data plane not yet built

Colo asking rents — N. Virginia — ◆ Mixed

• subject: landlord pricing power in Northern Virginia colocation
• chart: colo_asking_rates
• domain: Colocation
• horizon: Quarterly
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-06-30 / 2026-08-27 00:00:00+00:00
• interpretation: Asking rents at $212.50/kW-month and holding steady.
• evidence: CBRE H1 2026 Figure 5 quotes $190-$235/kW/month for 250-500 kW requirements. Calculated midpoint: (190+235)/2 = 212.5, unchanged from the cited Q1 range. The chapter states overall rents held steady; larger deployment tiers are not substituted.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: The next market report showing the metric moving the other way.
• data quality: dated public research; not a continuous feed
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'direction': 'unchanged', 'market': 'Northern Virginia', 'metric': 'asking_rent_midpoint_usd_kw_month', 'prior_value': 212.5, 'source_url': 'https://www.cbre.com/insights/books/north-america-data-center-trends-h1-2026/northern-virginia-data-center-market', 'unit': 'usd_per_kw_month', 'value': 212.5}

Colo capacity delivered — N. Virginia — ▲ Bullish

• subject: delivered wholesale colocation capacity in Northern Virginia
• chart: colo_capacity_delivery
• domain: Colocation
• horizon: Quarterly
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-06-30 / 2026-08-27 00:00:00+00:00
• interpretation: 1,016 MW added year over year and rising.
• evidence: CBRE H1 2026 overview Figure 1 (Wholesale Primary Market Fundamentals), Northern Virginia row, Inventory Y-o-Y Change (MW): +1,016.4. This is the annual inventory addition ending 30 June 2026, not the 467.6 MW half-year net absorption or the chapter’s 18-month delivery total. The table reports inventory of 4,496.5 MW; its embedded publisher figure is https://e.infogram.com/69f04b2e-aa60-4094-9cc1-caeb3cb6cf28. No prior annual-addition comparator is asserted.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: The next market report showing the metric moving the other way.
• data quality: dated public research; not a continuous feed
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'direction': 'increased', 'market': 'Northern Virginia', 'metric': 'inventory_added_yoy_mw', 'prior_value': None, 'source_url': 'https://www.cbre.com/insights/books/north-america-data-center-trends-h1-2026', 'unit': 'mw', 'value': 1016.4}

Data-centre landlords vs S&P 500 — ▲ Bullish

• subject: listed data-centre landlord pricing relative to the broad market
• chart: colo_public_landlords_spx
• domain: Colocation
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-10-29 / 2026-10-30 04:23:22+00:00
• interpretation: Up 3.3% over the last 30 days.
• evidence: 30-day relative-price change: 3.31%.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: A 30-day move through the opposite 2.0% threshold.
• data quality: price action, not fundamentals
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': False, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 2.0, 'unit': '%', 'value': 3.3110426029325124, 'window': 'change_30d'}, 'band_pct': 2.0, 'change_30d_pct': 3.3110426029325124, 'components': ['DLR.US', 'EQIX.US', 'GSPC.INDX', 'IRM.US'], 'series': 'BASKET_COLO_SPX', 'source_lineage': {'adjustment_snapshots': {'DLR.US': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 188, 'epoch_values_hash': '802414bd992bfef9372941e513f51e27a70e936fb9ce85a10e0a457ae5a87e00', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-08-19', 'history_values_hash': '7e8c1e25e6d5b64b5d5b879d85d67cd9dbfdd52eb60f8164afb2e88a7747ac9f', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-08-19', 'row_count': 552, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': 'f64d0e14db434aa24a77cc05fa41988a23c07b023711f66d951f60bde7c5eb0a', 'symbol': 'DLR.US'}, 'EQIX.US': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 188, 'epoch_values_hash': '371f0329a2615a76c2c9c7e9007f65badce6f2a174a20daa24f5e3f8d12d652d', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-08-19', 'history_values_hash': 'c4f897238ff60ce8d2b5f856cf2230f35db843533910b75dfb580ad618a0f1d5', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-08-19', 'row_count': 552, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': 'c03b9cb2b84c9bed98be84f5e97348a4f679c3047c5ecf7df78ca6dd512e74e8', 'symbol': 'EQIX.US'}, 'GSPC.INDX': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 188, 'epoch_values_hash': '7a2cd028562996315825f91508cf1cb1114df3240ec6bcf713cc590c151f48da', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-08-19', 'history_values_hash': '185868c62fa3e5f5764390b9dca056e7a098a5b34979c93a9f225616e7c694e1', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-08-19', 'row_count': 552, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': 'ad3ee42031dd5acc3309819de9b4f38ab779bb368e6eb3f764999f4d6f6130b1', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, 'IRM.US': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 188, 'epoch_values_hash': 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'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:b5d57baf89d2da92cd5f50bfadb24831acb0f137cd43b0f712fac56b03b8372c:69c3417a467de8ecfed127a75bd2d4c2bd4fca7ec7115f9f6c1d8d05d0de5beb', 'symbol': 'DLR.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:1377877efac5e953c98552fc21de9a2304f3e4046bbb3a415fc30f95e430fd27:28d1430a9e099edc1f938e86b8fd0841c29c677662ed68855315dbade6413801', 'symbol': 'EQIX.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:37c8aa7ac6b4efe8f712d054e60015892eba399bb48c49475fada083e78046e9:6252a191562cab5c1abada109c8ce4f4edfc2d2f4e5c2e16f832b833dcbd8b36', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:d570d74257c71a85a6b9bf66addf9b56be0f273d313c65ac1e68a08db0e5bf52:a7a4e9babf75a695f0f8859ac29b397e7e27360e927b37c8148afed06b3b4690', 'symbol': 'IRM.US'}], 'current': [{'as_of': '2026-10-29', 'reference': 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'market-series-lineage-2026-09-20-v2'}, 'value': 113.96257737141636}

Colo vacancy — N. Virginia — ▲ Bullish

• subject: landlord pricing power in Northern Virginia colocation
• chart: colo_vacancy
• domain: Colocation
• horizon: Quarterly
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-06-30 / 2026-08-27 00:00:00+00:00
• interpretation: Vacancy at 0.24% and falling.
• evidence: CBRE H1 2026 Northern Virginia chapter states that vacancy fell to 0.24%. Period ends 30 June 2026; this is a dated vacancy snapshot. No precise prior vacancy is supplied in this chapter.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: The next market report showing the metric moving the other way.
• data quality: dated public research; not a continuous feed
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'direction': 'decreased', 'market': 'Northern Virginia', 'metric': 'vacancy_pct', 'prior_value': None, 'source_url': 'https://www.cbre.com/insights/books/north-america-data-center-trends-h1-2026/northern-virginia-data-center-market', 'unit': 'pct', 'value': 0.24}

Hyperscalers vs S&P 500 — ▼ Bearish

• subject: public-market pricing of the hyperscaler cohort relative to the broad market
• chart: exposure_hyperscaler_spx
• domain: Listed cohorts
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-10-29 / 2026-10-30 04:23:22+00:00
• interpretation: Down 6.0% over the last 30 days.
• evidence: 30-day relative-price change: -5.98%.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: A 30-day move through the opposite 2.0% threshold.
• data quality: correlation, not exposure evidence; price action, not fundamentals
• metrics:
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'epoch_values_hash': '0fbd9ccb6030fa8f0064640b986fe08f721d30a80103fdc4023e9c755b56d64e', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-08-19', 'history_values_hash': '2c63bdd18e6c73b0abab92f20d407ccf03ea0021fc247d736ed60fb3f54bdc4e', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-08-19', 'row_count': 552, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': '75c6f18edbd77688c0cadc02de6a6ba47b9b615c73f435dabc42eec00bf88ac0', 'symbol': 'META.US'}, 'MSFT.US': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 188, 'epoch_values_hash': '808b3f9f80a6876be259df9f6fed242d9d8b6110eee600170748f3ae2443123a', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-08-19', 'history_values_hash': '80692349a7931019bd7625821ba4b111f4cc667e1216906ae91641a1394752a4', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-08-19', 'row_count': 552, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': '512a75afb9274d9216ff63d15cbb499792f5c548e53ff8667a2c7c8ccc9c2c67', 'symbol': 'MSFT.US'}, 'ORCL.US': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 188, 'epoch_values_hash': 'e2f2ffc699d7cb55382a178d246923d0c4648004c971efabd49cfe01f170633d', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-08-19', 'history_values_hash': '03fd1f804dda32acad360790ecf5816cad18f985365da62994c026d6929362aa', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-08-19', 'row_count': 552, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': '718bdf1218a007e3b938a63bb69da07d189e75c699c90908f4c918a08996ce6c', 'symbol': 'ORCL.US'}}, 'comparison_date': '2026-09-29', 'definition': {'captured_outputs': ['value', 'change_30d_pct'], 'denominator': ['GSPC.INDX'], 'derivation_version': 'dependency_clocks_and_adjustment_batches_v3', 'minimum_denominator': 1, 'minimum_numerator': 4, 'numerator': ['MSFT.US', 'GOOGL.US', 'AMZN.US', 'META.US', 'ORCL.US'], 'rebase': True, 'rebase_epoch': '2026-02-02'}, 'first_observed_at': '2026-10-30 04:23:30.173000+00:00', 'inputs': {'comparison': [{'as_of': '2026-09-29', 'reference': 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'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:c6dd35bab12405072e1ee4c809b2582635ede4a2958d339b53c54053bc9b0674:3a7db43cb9fea9507ccca85f826df21b1c3c7d21b9244902f201843b518e9b33', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:dc28341626172c653b04be7a63f6b32435996026f39228bb3872cfd12fa790ad:80b05aa388cad438521f07597ed1817a3ab2e1c166752c5f24b1954dcc05c7b4', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:e7695425f938247fad43f2bc75a79a6e64c6e826ea40731e8ad59d3a0ea1c81a:7bb254575d49ab0117c039b77a24b06c8f70ee88e89aac45fc428a8db7f44869'], 'transform_version': 'market-series-lineage-2026-09-20-v2'}, 'value': 87.807821874428}

Neoclouds vs S&P 500 — ▼ Bearish

• subject: public-market pricing of the neocloud cohort relative to the broad market
• chart: exposure_neocloud_spx
• domain: Listed cohorts
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-10-29 / 2026-10-30 04:23:22+00:00
• interpretation: Down 29.1% over the last 30 days.
• evidence: 30-day relative-price change: -29.14%.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: A 30-day move through the opposite 2.0% threshold.
• data quality: correlation, not exposure evidence; price action, not fundamentals
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': False, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 2.0, 'unit': '%', 'value': -29.13520054467982, 'window': 'change_30d'}, 'band_pct': 2.0, 'change_30d_pct': -29.13520054467982, 'components': ['APLD.US', 'CRWV.US', 'GSPC.INDX', 'IREN.US', 'NBIS.US'], 'series': 'BASKET_NEOCLOUD_SPX', 'source_lineage': {'adjustment_snapshots': {'APLD.US': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 188, 'epoch_values_hash': 'c0706de67232f62b309b5a9e66925a4f2735752600f89925a6a986be95af6671', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-08-19', 'history_values_hash': 'c1d1a88c51ce84fbba7b99fb95f338ed36552214d306b7fabfa5d1893a340355', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-08-19', 'row_count': 552, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': 'a5d04b9a8d88340a53eea148ffa3a973d8f9d1bb3c25d0330f282ee30d5608fb', 'symbol': 'APLD.US'}, 'CRWV.US': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 188, 'epoch_values_hash': '1b04b2ccae23830966f5bf920cdcedf2988a829e700017b000383e0d0aff405c', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2025-03-28', 'history_values_hash': '7c0a7f282edb464d26ebecb3e52ece13b37c532de23d87fb8751484e156f7e92', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-10-30', 'row_count': 400, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': '8612f50e2432d1e3faf60bc0be50dac8b5ac2cc502c36d3f9ec68369d3d815b1', 'symbol': 'CRWV.US'}, 'GSPC.INDX': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 188, 'epoch_values_hash': '7a2cd028562996315825f91508cf1cb1114df3240ec6bcf713cc590c151f48da', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-08-19', 'history_values_hash': '185868c62fa3e5f5764390b9dca056e7a098a5b34979c93a9f225616e7c694e1', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-08-19', 'row_count': 552, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': 'ad3ee42031dd5acc3309819de9b4f38ab779bb368e6eb3f764999f4d6f6130b1', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, 'IREN.US': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 188, 'epoch_values_hash': '9f092eabedf68820902c8ca86feda5897afc440e8522ac7dd87437a18ed0ae5b', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-08-19', 'history_values_hash': 'c7ec48bb231f906983d73c68ae8ca90154ccdb4b269f87e4a205063badad4f22', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-08-19', 'row_count': 552, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': '62d600176b474807d233d6523533bf8f780d4677698046ffbf9cf5567208c247', 'symbol': 'IREN.US'}, 'NBIS.US': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 188, 'epoch_values_hash': '0b36bf4a4c2a16a157cc77c04f493b75342ae90829d39149e68659f7c3b8af57', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-10-21', 'history_values_hash': 'bca6a4ce837c17f713bb0504cad74389154902f30b3c0d461e9966bf66e7164c', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-10-21', 'row_count': 508, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': '15f019ad238b16bf3c1f184166c44dca28eeab34a60729a6760b38eb300c4d14', 'symbol': 'NBIS.US'}}, 'comparison_date': '2026-09-29', 'definition': {'captured_outputs': ['value', 'change_30d_pct'], 'denominator': ['GSPC.INDX'], 'derivation_version': 'dependency_clocks_and_adjustment_batches_v3', 'minimum_denominator': 1, 'minimum_numerator': 3, 'numerator': ['CRWV.US', 'NBIS.US', 'IREN.US', 'APLD.US'], 'rebase': True, 'rebase_epoch': '2026-02-02'}, 'first_observed_at': '2026-10-30 04:23:30.173000+00:00', 'inputs': {'comparison': [{'as_of': '2026-09-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:ee24e180377250429d31a215d380185d63bf41630c40e19027c4383d10e4ce54:5d2fa9f8f6fcc9f35d89b59f2b679e877ecd5f132457f3cf590b395872397dd7', 'symbol': 'APLD.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:f5f1ec20c9ca50da8329bee67d0d32c99dd2b9149c5cb7ce23eb3909ba402a56:5acbe5126a14df25e38d0af656c89dfd089915541e6bb845864f2f0d5aae44ff', 'symbol': 'CRWV.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-29', 'reference': 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AI power names vs S&P 500 — ▼ Bearish

• subject: public-market pricing of the AI-power cohort relative to the broad market
• chart: exposure_power_spx
• domain: Listed cohorts
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-10-29 / 2026-10-30 04:23:22+00:00
• interpretation: Down 2.8% over the last 30 days.
• evidence: 30-day relative-price change: -2.77%.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: A 30-day move through the opposite 2.0% threshold.
• data quality: correlation, not exposure evidence; price action, not fundamentals
• metrics:
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'epoch_values_hash': '7a2cd028562996315825f91508cf1cb1114df3240ec6bcf713cc590c151f48da', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-08-19', 'history_values_hash': '185868c62fa3e5f5764390b9dca056e7a098a5b34979c93a9f225616e7c694e1', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-08-19', 'row_count': 552, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': 'ad3ee42031dd5acc3309819de9b4f38ab779bb368e6eb3f764999f4d6f6130b1', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, 'PWR.US': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 188, 'epoch_values_hash': '047d86aeb60c5b274a8c109c53913b500b7dc0df4911f1ac2d66b5a2ce763202', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-08-19', 'history_values_hash': '496407b61016de9f628295121feb81f1df662ee288821222d28c4a298885eab0', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-08-19', 'row_count': 552, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': '9348747be9fe061f2c99c9a8b689c9065108ad1db24fa7254687946162b24de1', 'symbol': 'PWR.US'}, 'TLN.US': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 188, 'epoch_values_hash': '29b598b7a37b61836ee173205ee138e26ac1925cf01fa780897ab4918bda17a1', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-08-19', 'history_values_hash': 'ab183af25e4df0ff58a583a2e2d0323728198606fadcb527adea22d5a2104d56', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-08-19', 'row_count': 552, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': 'cbf60df65ce2886d013c4ba940c2ef4adf948d4921bfae929cdf28c4ee2a4507', 'symbol': 'TLN.US'}, 'VST.US': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 188, 'epoch_values_hash': '5f68b74bea4c4a77d10e65c2e23ae9af6f05d97326337601e0c8adfeace9545e', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-08-19', 'history_values_hash': '805140e0417e1119bd11516674ad7c93c349178f2ae1d489cdd0b3c1252c9d81', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-08-19', 'row_count': 552, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': '9d405ea3fbeaafeb2970a4e64bbe9df404144e082ff46e45ae551cf0de0a499c', 'symbol': 'VST.US'}}, 'comparison_date': '2026-09-29', 'definition': {'captured_outputs': ['value', 'change_30d_pct'], 'denominator': ['GSPC.INDX'], 'derivation_version': 'dependency_clocks_and_adjustment_batches_v3', 'minimum_denominator': 1, 'minimum_numerator': 4, 'numerator': ['VST.US', 'CEG.US', 'TLN.US', 'GEV.US', 'ETN.US', 'PWR.US'], 'rebase': True, 'rebase_epoch': '2026-02-02'}, 'first_observed_at': '2026-10-30 04:23:30.173000+00:00', 'inputs': {'comparison': [{'as_of': '2026-09-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:660e67d3a60e0761382703bd46700f222e541da4019aceadcc48263489122400:3735d08b79d38ecdcf63b7f9e8df0495d7d069dfc71e35757954a4952c547fa0', 'symbol': 'CEG.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:d7958554b774482c36320e01ec34dac40860d1d2fb6ce80776909fbc5a8f1fcc:6cdf85f63cd0af8aed2ccd4c1471a1a52feded316036b20b83a6d4eadf9a1a97', 'symbol': 'ETN.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-29', 'reference': 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Semiconductors vs S&P 500 — ▼ Bearish

• subject: semiconductor equity leadership relative to the broad US market
• chart: capital_sox_spx
• domain: Capital markets
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-10-29 / 2026-10-30 04:23:22+00:00
• interpretation: Down 9.4% over the last 30 days.
• evidence: 30-day relative-price change: -9.38%.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: A 30-day move through the opposite 2.0% threshold.
• data quality: price action, not fundamentals
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': False, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 2.0, 'unit': '%', 'value': -9.382140893235736, 'window': 'change_30d'}, 'band_pct': 2.0, 'change_30d_pct': -9.382140893235736, 'components': ['GSPC.INDX', 'SOX.INDX'], 'series': 'RATIO_SOX_SPX', 'source_lineage': {'adjustment_snapshots': {'GSPC.INDX': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 188, 'epoch_values_hash': '7a2cd028562996315825f91508cf1cb1114df3240ec6bcf713cc590c151f48da', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-08-19', 'history_values_hash': '185868c62fa3e5f5764390b9dca056e7a098a5b34979c93a9f225616e7c694e1', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-08-19', 'row_count': 552, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': 'ad3ee42031dd5acc3309819de9b4f38ab779bb368e6eb3f764999f4d6f6130b1', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, 'SOX.INDX': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 188, 'epoch_values_hash': '600718de3b5ba0e218c448a146f082d353c9a2bebdec0f1735f860c13514bf2c', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-08-19', 'history_values_hash': 'f053160cf9e3ad6cdc1b51a8e2a471cca9e5e418354bead81bfb8838a8c19e73', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-08-19', 'row_count': 552, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': 'a607084f4b922190e7646cc4b861bbe41d9eccc8b2f90133a4c42508e01fda93', 'symbol': 'SOX.INDX'}}, 'comparison_date': '2026-09-29', 'definition': {'captured_outputs': ['value', 'change_30d_pct'], 'denominator': ['GSPC.INDX'], 'derivation_version': 'dependency_clocks_and_adjustment_batches_v3', 'minimum_denominator': 1, 'minimum_numerator': 1, 'numerator': ['SOX.INDX'], 'rebase': True, 'rebase_epoch': '2026-02-02'}, 'first_observed_at': '2026-10-30 04:23:30.173000+00:00', 'inputs': {'comparison': [{'as_of': '2026-09-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:37c8aa7ac6b4efe8f712d054e60015892eba399bb48c49475fada083e78046e9:6252a191562cab5c1abada109c8ce4f4edfc2d2f4e5c2e16f832b833dcbd8b36', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:c10c9445596f63272de2421e351214508776fba69a21625abdeddab708f14b45:5c684ec0ea24744b43276d814fb013ca82622b9eab7fbe0cbe7a9c2ea37e6ca5', 'symbol': 'SOX.INDX'}], 'current': [{'as_of': '2026-10-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:b1d44d71ac8df19c587470e3fe274aec79c9d15bf14b9679a3a3dd03ac187f36:93f3711098bad0a38f65f186ae4e778032a3461d05cac4e25ca56d7b0ace511b', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-10-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:b55ac2a54587aba539b884857a8a92417bd101ff5dca1b53c9dff9ea5feb1eb1:de011a02753b43c72067a782f1a75ba11e688542b9dfc00bcb4ced4d4d3420a0', 'symbol': 'SOX.INDX'}], 'rebase': [{'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:24d6cc3fd802e900c9aec4f2d6f1c7d219c3b1ac2343bd82f0afcf1a9ebe8ec9:4e2d09918e537df65173169bc4aa2456acf27f164b729b17bc93418e7e4873f6', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:9e21494c0d9216cc88d47bf9daa6d6d9ae7ec805a1faca727f2c85c671eb5ea9:f59477aecb4eb8af675ae210e88501832f6289d153f1cad72d0376cc97a8fc1b', 'symbol': 'SOX.INDX'}]}, 'price_convention': 'adjusted_close_only', 'schema_version': 1, 'source_refs': ['aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:24d6cc3fd802e900c9aec4f2d6f1c7d219c3b1ac2343bd82f0afcf1a9ebe8ec9:4e2d09918e537df65173169bc4aa2456acf27f164b729b17bc93418e7e4873f6', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:37c8aa7ac6b4efe8f712d054e60015892eba399bb48c49475fada083e78046e9:6252a191562cab5c1abada109c8ce4f4edfc2d2f4e5c2e16f832b833dcbd8b36', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:9e21494c0d9216cc88d47bf9daa6d6d9ae7ec805a1faca727f2c85c671eb5ea9:f59477aecb4eb8af675ae210e88501832f6289d153f1cad72d0376cc97a8fc1b', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:b1d44d71ac8df19c587470e3fe274aec79c9d15bf14b9679a3a3dd03ac187f36:93f3711098bad0a38f65f186ae4e778032a3461d05cac4e25ca56d7b0ace511b', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:b55ac2a54587aba539b884857a8a92417bd101ff5dca1b53c9dff9ea5feb1eb1:de011a02753b43c72067a782f1a75ba11e688542b9dfc00bcb4ced4d4d3420a0', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:c10c9445596f63272de2421e351214508776fba69a21625abdeddab708f14b45:5c684ec0ea24744b43276d814fb013ca82622b9eab7fbe0cbe7a9c2ea37e6ca5'], 'transform_version': 'market-series-lineage-2026-09-20-v2'}, 'value': 127.9525255721505}

CLO BBB vs AAA tranches — ◆ Mixed

• subject: marginal risk appetite in the AI buildout's securitized-debt channel
• chart: capital_jbbb_jaaa
• domain: Capital markets
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-10-29 / 2026-10-30 04:23:22+00:00
• interpretation: Down 1.0% over the last 30 days.
• evidence: 30-day relative-price change: -0.99%.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: A 30-day move through the opposite 1.0% threshold.
• data quality: price action, not fundamentals
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': False, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 1.0, 'unit': '%', 'value': -0.9939973449951789, 'window': 'change_30d'}, 'band_pct': 1.0, 'change_30d_pct': -0.9939973449951789, 'components': ['JAAA.US', 'JBBB.US'], 'series': 'RATIO_JBBB_JAAA', 'source_lineage': {'adjustment_snapshots': {'JAAA.US': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 188, 'epoch_values_hash': 'ae898f60aed8a6d664f85945f05b10dfbd57d754a7ed7f65d617b7f8bd1564e7', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-08-19', 'history_values_hash': 'a8a34cebcf6a4958a05c30cb719e7c8a007d4abde638915f35cb42153da6bda1', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-08-19', 'row_count': 552, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': '53f7f31a570b537cd4df9fee08c96c5158329606a88cb40161c7c90f7bba935d', 'symbol': 'JAAA.US'}, 'JBBB.US': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 188, 'epoch_values_hash': '024ddc9a8ebdcce1309aa4f08c6367c5d704b394537eda7620301dfebd03c59c', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-08-19', 'history_values_hash': '3e8ac069147289330caf651a003b61a88f5a68884a88392964302da7faedce0d', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-08-19', 'row_count': 552, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': '60d1cc63504702a46c27bfd122fe6b0ffa7c37b6d1849e8802fd2b44ae4322c4', 'symbol': 'JBBB.US'}}, 'comparison_date': '2026-09-29', 'definition': {'captured_outputs': ['value', 'change_30d_pct'], 'denominator': ['JAAA.US'], 'derivation_version': 'dependency_clocks_and_adjustment_batches_v3', 'minimum_denominator': 1, 'minimum_numerator': 1, 'numerator': ['JBBB.US'], 'rebase': True, 'rebase_epoch': '2026-02-02'}, 'first_observed_at': '2026-10-30 04:23:30.173000+00:00', 'inputs': {'comparison': [{'as_of': '2026-09-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:24152a1467c13a690820d0ddc3c8fd12e68e169393e0c63571a1a8a4028674b3:bd4e690f234e1707eb8ac387b11c092a3d1190a319a5e6819e4b273f62119be8', 'symbol': 'JAAA.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:9ab3bc2c1577acd8c16bfdb93b1856efb66da3d64d423797decacad75472e6ec:5ac6970f4e0675e0755d39ba41c58d86de435aec4002fa8ee67de8c741954688', 'symbol': 'JBBB.US'}], 'current': [{'as_of': '2026-10-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:731e52a3baf7adf8b4af9d406b86cc6b863c2f3a1ab6dd12dc13de737f9e23c0:efa53f9d5eaff8408aaf626edd9657588a12ff93c3d675a7d00433c180025a04', 'symbol': 'JAAA.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-10-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:4bf914708dee75b930cbfa9e2f2ecac9c5f5db477b5a6d8d06760604e15d323f:ad925a99f39bdd49d59f40356a8c39705da9fbfa64dfca607b92d3d5fc69ce61', 'symbol': 'JBBB.US'}], 'rebase': [{'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:2e15f309b66c47214d26f11d6b748b73129d7908e06f0c45f600a63cd8fda3a8:ec9ad42f575bfa61b7130b23f76ff32b30d50f8d3965db1fc813e6d3417a8d47', 'symbol': 'JAAA.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:2c66b1ee4c0ac66ada787b1ba99b8717a1443125beb6df11204f99f0a9088ff8:2cb0efe603f9ad24638198e0b55dcd0b3de83d2a9397de8821a61af127657903', 'symbol': 'JBBB.US'}]}, 'price_convention': 'adjusted_close_only', 'schema_version': 1, 'source_refs': ['aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:24152a1467c13a690820d0ddc3c8fd12e68e169393e0c63571a1a8a4028674b3:bd4e690f234e1707eb8ac387b11c092a3d1190a319a5e6819e4b273f62119be8', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:2c66b1ee4c0ac66ada787b1ba99b8717a1443125beb6df11204f99f0a9088ff8:2cb0efe603f9ad24638198e0b55dcd0b3de83d2a9397de8821a61af127657903', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:2e15f309b66c47214d26f11d6b748b73129d7908e06f0c45f600a63cd8fda3a8:ec9ad42f575bfa61b7130b23f76ff32b30d50f8d3965db1fc813e6d3417a8d47', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:4bf914708dee75b930cbfa9e2f2ecac9c5f5db477b5a6d8d06760604e15d323f:ad925a99f39bdd49d59f40356a8c39705da9fbfa64dfca607b92d3d5fc69ce61', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:731e52a3baf7adf8b4af9d406b86cc6b863c2f3a1ab6dd12dc13de737f9e23c0:efa53f9d5eaff8408aaf626edd9657588a12ff93c3d675a7d00433c180025a04', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:9ab3bc2c1577acd8c16bfdb93b1856efb66da3d64d423797decacad75472e6ec:5ac6970f4e0675e0755d39ba41c58d86de435aec4002fa8ee67de8c741954688'], 'transform_version': 'market-series-lineage-2026-09-20-v2'}, 'value': 98.64677693182975}

AI-complex correlation regime — ◆ Mixed

• subject: single-narrative fragility of the US-listed AI-buildout complex
• chart: capital_correlation_regime
• domain: Capital markets
• horizon: Medium term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-10-29 / 2026-10-30 04:23:22+00:00
• interpretation: Median pairwise correlation is inside its registered 20th-80th percentile range.
• evidence: 63-day median pairwise correlation: 0.275.; Two-year own-history percentile: 70.1.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: The 63-day median pairwise correlation's two-year percentile crosses the opposite registered 20th/80th threshold.
• data quality: price action, not fundamentals; excludes stocks whose price history is under review; source records not yet linked; US-listed cohort only
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'corr_percentile_2y': 70.14314928425358, 'high_percentile_threshold': 80.0, 'low_percentile_threshold': 20.0, 'median_pairwise_corr_63d': 0.2751567542995996, 'pair_count': 16836, 'symbol_count': 184}

High-yield vs investment-grade credit — ▼ Bearish

• subject: public-credit risk appetite relevant to AI-buildout financing
• chart: capital_hyg_lqd
• domain: Capital markets
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-10-29 / 2026-10-30 04:23:22+00:00
• interpretation: Down 1.4% over the last 30 days.
• evidence: 30-day relative-price change: -1.44%.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: A 30-day move through the opposite 1.0% threshold.
• data quality: price action, not fundamentals
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': False, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 1.0, 'unit': '%', 'value': -1.4440527859601038, 'window': 'change_30d'}, 'band_pct': 1.0, 'change_30d_pct': -1.4440527859601038, 'components': ['HYG.US', 'LQD.US'], 'series': 'RATIO_HYG_LQD', 'source_lineage': {'adjustment_snapshots': {'HYG.US': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 188, 'epoch_values_hash': '1312ac2edb399d64a0617fa12cb09a009bf8a859206e6d396877ea8b00ca8fec', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-08-19', 'history_values_hash': '94ecad963d758af01bcd37e823bc413b6b34878aa4aa808e20ab0611e74b14e8', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-08-19', 'row_count': 552, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': 'd3cade1879b7f9e932d8f13099e6cd11d99084564084dc112cb9e9e7733c4c1c', 'symbol': 'HYG.US'}, 'LQD.US': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 188, 'epoch_values_hash': 'fdfe4ce17034895d1164b1c36ad49b18f31d625387e3230c0cccc7b34736de8f', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-08-19', 'history_values_hash': 'd208f9974a419a0f42b0287133a6857b6a0c2b494216d7404563336b453ed7e5', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-08-19', 'row_count': 552, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': '08c77d7e0c818f5092fc48cdfef2866404d448897e12c4985027ac87d5b03e95', 'symbol': 'LQD.US'}}, 'comparison_date': '2026-09-29', 'definition': {'captured_outputs': ['value', 'change_30d_pct'], 'denominator': ['LQD.US'], 'derivation_version': 'dependency_clocks_and_adjustment_batches_v3', 'minimum_denominator': 1, 'minimum_numerator': 1, 'numerator': ['HYG.US'], 'rebase': True, 'rebase_epoch': '2026-02-02'}, 'first_observed_at': '2026-10-30 04:23:30.173000+00:00', 'inputs': {'comparison': [{'as_of': '2026-09-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:1034f3e823934c4562b5aa240e742e9c7faea931e32d6046a0e7d2830f0381a8:9202e447db5f9d652ed6d33868c19af37271858cf30f4f96be7702b586076a04', 'symbol': 'HYG.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:7905cff0321bb229f71f70d3a10574b7302046902be11e839717fb15e1fa3cc0:72521a1ccf0264c5666cb5b1a62eff4ac4ef77dea8f3084bbebdaa3dfe929a1c', 'symbol': 'LQD.US'}], 'current': [{'as_of': '2026-10-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:e52a1ac518ecfc17dceecec4e478919be032a584ed4c8b9c6816dbe77cc9ac0f:97e32b5c214e174bd459f411471b2a0bf2ee3e4f7dd127f85ec3757adbb36d4e', 'symbol': 'HYG.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-10-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:154dab30e2d45698dddc2d7eacf564dc1f2a7c758df72ab5503a86e666ad329e:aa98dd9937df57c54edf41823f74f97176ca13b98eba971e4f1282d491a3e381', 'symbol': 'LQD.US'}], 'rebase': [{'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:6e346584f09679db57f37d39cc10874bfbd07a804b8ffe020d276e6e1b77a169:f6ed2ebb7c4c651ff06b15e8f203cdf1468f68c34ed0147d11e2515eb5cad2ea', 'symbol': 'HYG.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:0a3b24d21584e6fbca681b743e988893b825186b4045fce1fe649b2f5c4a58ec:4ecff585168251b7814866594b53e93875d222e2e25ba4da69c09e48125fe528', 'symbol': 'LQD.US'}]}, 'price_convention': 'adjusted_close_only', 'schema_version': 1, 'source_refs': ['aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:0a3b24d21584e6fbca681b743e988893b825186b4045fce1fe649b2f5c4a58ec:4ecff585168251b7814866594b53e93875d222e2e25ba4da69c09e48125fe528', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:1034f3e823934c4562b5aa240e742e9c7faea931e32d6046a0e7d2830f0381a8:9202e447db5f9d652ed6d33868c19af37271858cf30f4f96be7702b586076a04', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:154dab30e2d45698dddc2d7eacf564dc1f2a7c758df72ab5503a86e666ad329e:aa98dd9937df57c54edf41823f74f97176ca13b98eba971e4f1282d491a3e381', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:6e346584f09679db57f37d39cc10874bfbd07a804b8ffe020d276e6e1b77a169:f6ed2ebb7c4c651ff06b15e8f203cdf1468f68c34ed0147d11e2515eb5cad2ea', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:7905cff0321bb229f71f70d3a10574b7302046902be11e839717fb15e1fa3cc0:72521a1ccf0264c5666cb5b1a62eff4ac4ef77dea8f3084bbebdaa3dfe929a1c', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:e52a1ac518ecfc17dceecec4e478919be032a584ed4c8b9c6816dbe77cc9ac0f:97e32b5c214e174bd459f411471b2a0bf2ee3e4f7dd127f85ec3757adbb36d4e'], 'transform_version': 'market-series-lineage-2026-09-20-v2'}, 'value': 102.23535054197892}

Equal-weight vs cap-weight S&P — ▲ Bullish

• subject: US equity breadth relative to capitalization-weighted equities
• chart: capital_rsp_spx
• domain: Capital markets
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-10-29 / 2026-10-30 04:23:22+00:00
• interpretation: Up 4.4% over the last 30 days.
• evidence: 30-day relative-price change: 4.36%.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: A 30-day move through the opposite 1.0% threshold.
• data quality: price action, not fundamentals
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': False, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 1.0, 'unit': '%', 'value': 4.356929821218114, 'window': 'change_30d'}, 'band_pct': 1.0, 'change_30d_pct': 4.356929821218114, 'components': ['GSPC.INDX', 'RSP.US'], 'series': 'RATIO_RSP_SPX', 'source_lineage': {'adjustment_snapshots': {'GSPC.INDX': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 188, 'epoch_values_hash': '7a2cd028562996315825f91508cf1cb1114df3240ec6bcf713cc590c151f48da', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-08-19', 'history_values_hash': '185868c62fa3e5f5764390b9dca056e7a098a5b34979c93a9f225616e7c694e1', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-08-19', 'row_count': 552, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': 'ad3ee42031dd5acc3309819de9b4f38ab779bb368e6eb3f764999f4d6f6130b1', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, 'RSP.US': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 188, 'epoch_values_hash': 'a3bec32f74a81cd5b9594be0fcd968a67a728af99b301e335c1e6ca99eb7c71a', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-08-19', 'history_values_hash': '098b7f9597322d00af7f27ea80f20c33e1307d30a07a1d150db4beb00a470335', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-08-19', 'row_count': 552, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': '94cb897260ba317fd29a096f5277fd658064ea479f61298e43b74c4733eeaeda', 'symbol': 'RSP.US'}}, 'comparison_date': '2026-09-29', 'definition': {'captured_outputs': ['value', 'change_30d_pct'], 'denominator': ['GSPC.INDX'], 'derivation_version': 'dependency_clocks_and_adjustment_batches_v3', 'minimum_denominator': 1, 'minimum_numerator': 1, 'numerator': ['RSP.US'], 'rebase': True, 'rebase_epoch': '2026-02-02'}, 'first_observed_at': '2026-10-30 04:23:30.173000+00:00', 'inputs': {'comparison': [{'as_of': '2026-09-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:37c8aa7ac6b4efe8f712d054e60015892eba399bb48c49475fada083e78046e9:6252a191562cab5c1abada109c8ce4f4edfc2d2f4e5c2e16f832b833dcbd8b36', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:689124865bf3b8178116947462ea18d84beb577ba0f24244afa1517e3819a274:38675ca83cba81be8c718d7dfb30b5371291162b9815045fe07059f7759eb1ba', 'symbol': 'RSP.US'}], 'current': [{'as_of': '2026-10-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:b1d44d71ac8df19c587470e3fe274aec79c9d15bf14b9679a3a3dd03ac187f36:93f3711098bad0a38f65f186ae4e778032a3461d05cac4e25ca56d7b0ace511b', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-10-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:668a8eef5f70063b1999e61580d123b1884b5b9f7b71d65f3876cc265e52007c:9fa0b0b057331fe16ea6d176f3c99909b9108890b8e28500c45379ab15438ae9', 'symbol': 'RSP.US'}], 'rebase': [{'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:24d6cc3fd802e900c9aec4f2d6f1c7d219c3b1ac2343bd82f0afcf1a9ebe8ec9:4e2d09918e537df65173169bc4aa2456acf27f164b729b17bc93418e7e4873f6', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:32a33e04daf4ec7d15af33db4f9763a417be031480323130da802017887e4137:87e83c00730a4eddc8dc1114b74ea1e147abb48312ba17c0fc7e19a1a196f5a6', 'symbol': 'RSP.US'}]}, 'price_convention': 'adjusted_close_only', 'schema_version': 1, 'source_refs': ['aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:24d6cc3fd802e900c9aec4f2d6f1c7d219c3b1ac2343bd82f0afcf1a9ebe8ec9:4e2d09918e537df65173169bc4aa2456acf27f164b729b17bc93418e7e4873f6', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:32a33e04daf4ec7d15af33db4f9763a417be031480323130da802017887e4137:87e83c00730a4eddc8dc1114b74ea1e147abb48312ba17c0fc7e19a1a196f5a6', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:37c8aa7ac6b4efe8f712d054e60015892eba399bb48c49475fada083e78046e9:6252a191562cab5c1abada109c8ce4f4edfc2d2f4e5c2e16f832b833dcbd8b36', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:668a8eef5f70063b1999e61580d123b1884b5b9f7b71d65f3876cc265e52007c:9fa0b0b057331fe16ea6d176f3c99909b9108890b8e28500c45379ab15438ae9', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:689124865bf3b8178116947462ea18d84beb577ba0f24244afa1517e3819a274:38675ca83cba81be8c718d7dfb30b5371291162b9815045fe07059f7759eb1ba', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:b1d44d71ac8df19c587470e3fe274aec79c9d15bf14b9679a3a3dd03ac187f36:93f3711098bad0a38f65f186ae4e778032a3461d05cac4e25ca56d7b0ace511b'], 'transform_version': 'market-series-lineage-2026-09-20-v2'}, 'value': 101.06277648703256}

Nasdaq 100 vs S&P 500 — ▼ Bearish

• subject: mega-cap concentration in US equities
• chart: capital_ndx_spx
• domain: Capital markets
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-10-29 / 2026-10-30 04:23:22+00:00
• interpretation: Down 3.7% over the last 30 days.
• evidence: 30-day relative-price change: -3.71%.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: A 30-day move through the opposite 1.0% threshold.
• data quality: price action, not fundamentals
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': False, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 1.0, 'unit': '%', 'value': -3.7098038631616426, 'window': 'change_30d'}, 'band_pct': 1.0, 'change_30d_pct': -3.7098038631616426, 'components': ['GSPC.INDX', 'NDX.INDX'], 'series': 'RATIO_NDX_SPX', 'source_lineage': {'adjustment_snapshots': {'GSPC.INDX': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 188, 'epoch_values_hash': '7a2cd028562996315825f91508cf1cb1114df3240ec6bcf713cc590c151f48da', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-08-19', 'history_values_hash': '185868c62fa3e5f5764390b9dca056e7a098a5b34979c93a9f225616e7c694e1', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-08-19', 'row_count': 552, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': 'ad3ee42031dd5acc3309819de9b4f38ab779bb368e6eb3f764999f4d6f6130b1', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, 'NDX.INDX': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 188, 'epoch_values_hash': '6838dcd9968671cdcf787099453b6ddb3fb636e533d2d1ed3e54c5b1c53806eb', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-08-19', 'history_values_hash': 'aeccb30f8c014e6b1d94d6a8a0c9c8f560c367d24b75e764fe4f2ed9129eafba', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-08-19', 'row_count': 552, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': '1fc393ec5829e0f01f148c7539c489113c20cf7d9b561c1f49181b46d7e1410f', 'symbol': 'NDX.INDX'}}, 'comparison_date': '2026-09-29', 'definition': {'captured_outputs': ['value', 'change_30d_pct'], 'denominator': ['GSPC.INDX'], 'derivation_version': 'dependency_clocks_and_adjustment_batches_v3', 'minimum_denominator': 1, 'minimum_numerator': 1, 'numerator': ['NDX.INDX'], 'rebase': True, 'rebase_epoch': '2026-02-02'}, 'first_observed_at': '2026-10-30 04:23:30.173000+00:00', 'inputs': {'comparison': [{'as_of': '2026-09-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:37c8aa7ac6b4efe8f712d054e60015892eba399bb48c49475fada083e78046e9:6252a191562cab5c1abada109c8ce4f4edfc2d2f4e5c2e16f832b833dcbd8b36', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:f8bf377efcc037c3cbc327bfb497702d38b175908e5aee363364b898ffd428fc:de8b066a6b42a35b53eb339127a221785889ff22016c0158a0f36b38aafabb98', 'symbol': 'NDX.INDX'}], 'current': [{'as_of': '2026-10-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:b1d44d71ac8df19c587470e3fe274aec79c9d15bf14b9679a3a3dd03ac187f36:93f3711098bad0a38f65f186ae4e778032a3461d05cac4e25ca56d7b0ace511b', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-10-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:f9c6f2bb8c89575e17521872f3fae94c46358df13bb1263445cc58ba3794cfa5:29902a6fc57380a627ccd68a51f97a6679d25ca531abfb8553017ee1ac592dc0', 'symbol': 'NDX.INDX'}], 'rebase': [{'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:24d6cc3fd802e900c9aec4f2d6f1c7d219c3b1ac2343bd82f0afcf1a9ebe8ec9:4e2d09918e537df65173169bc4aa2456acf27f164b729b17bc93418e7e4873f6', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:74ab11f549c57b87153f1adc16af098513c671888fcb759cd001e4703d4cf832:a7916013b8d94028a874e67a5306b5f972482230fa1d54e3efc06c980af442b1', 'symbol': 'NDX.INDX'}]}, 'price_convention': 'adjusted_close_only', 'schema_version': 1, 'source_refs': ['aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:24d6cc3fd802e900c9aec4f2d6f1c7d219c3b1ac2343bd82f0afcf1a9ebe8ec9:4e2d09918e537df65173169bc4aa2456acf27f164b729b17bc93418e7e4873f6', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:37c8aa7ac6b4efe8f712d054e60015892eba399bb48c49475fada083e78046e9:6252a191562cab5c1abada109c8ce4f4edfc2d2f4e5c2e16f832b833dcbd8b36', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:74ab11f549c57b87153f1adc16af098513c671888fcb759cd001e4703d4cf832:a7916013b8d94028a874e67a5306b5f972482230fa1d54e3efc06c980af442b1', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:b1d44d71ac8df19c587470e3fe274aec79c9d15bf14b9679a3a3dd03ac187f36:93f3711098bad0a38f65f186ae4e778032a3461d05cac4e25ca56d7b0ace511b', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:f8bf377efcc037c3cbc327bfb497702d38b175908e5aee363364b898ffd428fc:de8b066a6b42a35b53eb339127a221785889ff22016c0158a0f36b38aafabb98', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:f9c6f2bb8c89575e17521872f3fae94c46358df13bb1263445cc58ba3794cfa5:29902a6fc57380a627ccd68a51f97a6679d25ca531abfb8553017ee1ac592dc0'], 'transform_version': 'market-series-lineage-2026-09-20-v2'}, 'value': 103.227144127399}

Utilities vs S&P 500 — ▲ Bullish

• subject: utilities repricing relative to the broad market
• chart: capital_xlu_spx
• domain: Capital markets
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-10-29 / 2026-10-30 04:23:22+00:00
• interpretation: Up 7.9% over the last 30 days.
• evidence: 30-day relative-price change: 7.94%.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: A 30-day move through the opposite 1.5% threshold.
• data quality: price action, not fundamentals
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': False, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 1.5, 'unit': '%', 'value': 7.940378946015669, 'window': 'change_30d'}, 'band_pct': 1.5, 'change_30d_pct': 7.940378946015669, 'components': ['GSPC.INDX', 'XLU.US'], 'series': 'RATIO_XLU_SPX', 'source_lineage': {'adjustment_snapshots': {'GSPC.INDX': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 188, 'epoch_values_hash': '7a2cd028562996315825f91508cf1cb1114df3240ec6bcf713cc590c151f48da', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-08-19', 'history_values_hash': '185868c62fa3e5f5764390b9dca056e7a098a5b34979c93a9f225616e7c694e1', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-08-19', 'row_count': 552, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': 'ad3ee42031dd5acc3309819de9b4f38ab779bb368e6eb3f764999f4d6f6130b1', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, 'XLU.US': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 188, 'epoch_values_hash': '4dd0b6529da61df3f1b554530eae6e0adb71dbdaf851e6ff8e00ab264ad66ee9', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-08-19', 'history_values_hash': '2e44d51d4699d6a1d8524a51fd49051aca57d5d185cb622da437c1dc7394417a', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-08-19', 'row_count': 552, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': '8723e9c48ac47980dcd4ae00f38925175c3119b3f271627232d847bbd2f7a360', 'symbol': 'XLU.US'}}, 'comparison_date': '2026-09-29', 'definition': {'captured_outputs': ['value', 'change_30d_pct'], 'denominator': ['GSPC.INDX'], 'derivation_version': 'dependency_clocks_and_adjustment_batches_v3', 'minimum_denominator': 1, 'minimum_numerator': 1, 'numerator': ['XLU.US'], 'rebase': True, 'rebase_epoch': '2026-02-02'}, 'first_observed_at': '2026-10-30 04:23:30.173000+00:00', 'inputs': {'comparison': [{'as_of': '2026-09-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:37c8aa7ac6b4efe8f712d054e60015892eba399bb48c49475fada083e78046e9:6252a191562cab5c1abada109c8ce4f4edfc2d2f4e5c2e16f832b833dcbd8b36', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:c7350695149054c954f7b956e16a798d2a2dc8f197355b290beef2053b594e7b:1b4d04cac4ff66913040db3f29dc3c12bc57ab267a92398ca75cc87cd6832c26', 'symbol': 'XLU.US'}], 'current': [{'as_of': '2026-10-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:b1d44d71ac8df19c587470e3fe274aec79c9d15bf14b9679a3a3dd03ac187f36:93f3711098bad0a38f65f186ae4e778032a3461d05cac4e25ca56d7b0ace511b', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-10-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:46934726bce4a5186f7517fba714123667ec3a13dac913e97db8c0350df40009:217a79f81630a47ab9277c73c885ff8c523bb8715cd0cf12b05ad8d4039afbcc', 'symbol': 'XLU.US'}], 'rebase': [{'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:24d6cc3fd802e900c9aec4f2d6f1c7d219c3b1ac2343bd82f0afcf1a9ebe8ec9:4e2d09918e537df65173169bc4aa2456acf27f164b729b17bc93418e7e4873f6', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:cf6682e490cc8d57489ad055401b01d1e4552272f898b6199dc4b3f5f8035899:7825ede811dc3470dcac777ccefd4701a72e583e60191dbb7f79cd6f9583f48f', 'symbol': 'XLU.US'}]}, 'price_convention': 'adjusted_close_only', 'schema_version': 1, 'source_refs': ['aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:24d6cc3fd802e900c9aec4f2d6f1c7d219c3b1ac2343bd82f0afcf1a9ebe8ec9:4e2d09918e537df65173169bc4aa2456acf27f164b729b17bc93418e7e4873f6', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:37c8aa7ac6b4efe8f712d054e60015892eba399bb48c49475fada083e78046e9:6252a191562cab5c1abada109c8ce4f4edfc2d2f4e5c2e16f832b833dcbd8b36', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:46934726bce4a5186f7517fba714123667ec3a13dac913e97db8c0350df40009:217a79f81630a47ab9277c73c885ff8c523bb8715cd0cf12b05ad8d4039afbcc', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:b1d44d71ac8df19c587470e3fe274aec79c9d15bf14b9679a3a3dd03ac187f36:93f3711098bad0a38f65f186ae4e778032a3461d05cac4e25ca56d7b0ace511b', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:c7350695149054c954f7b956e16a798d2a2dc8f197355b290beef2053b594e7b:1b4d04cac4ff66913040db3f29dc3c12bc57ab267a92398ca75cc87cd6832c26', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:cf6682e490cc8d57489ad055401b01d1e4552272f898b6199dc4b3f5f8035899:7825ede811dc3470dcac777ccefd4701a72e583e60191dbb7f79cd6f9583f48f'], 'transform_version': 'market-series-lineage-2026-09-20-v2'}, 'value': 93.37614986174506}

VIX term structure — ▲ Bullish

• subject: near-term public-market risk appetite
• chart: capital_vix_term
• domain: Capital markets
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-10-29 / 2026-10-30 04:23:22+00:00
• interpretation: Front VIX at 0.89× the 3-month tenor.
• evidence: VIX/VIX3M: 0.888.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: The VIX term structure crossing the opposite 0.95/1.05 threshold.
• data quality: price action, not fundamentals
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'source_lineage': {'adjustment_snapshots': {'VIX.INDX': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 194, 'epoch_values_hash': '4ad72113c84d3b0659030318174d0e3a97c571fb016cd20764602defd35b0193', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-08-19', 'history_values_hash': '68ab6798bba9c8d80bd50b4e321aedddc4db11467487008650fb294415acd961', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-08-19', 'row_count': 571, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': 'd4fed7ff8f61620581c2627a3fe799c992ecca08387591c18dd8ca86dfc4ed50', 'symbol': 'VIX.INDX'}, 'VIX3M.INDX': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 193, 'epoch_values_hash': '2e8da33ce9d5b5797010bd75047f963c1d08a00a62812789108e05678c0ecfce', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-08-19', 'history_values_hash': '7ce1177178c8389df46a17f9f126204a6833b0a2d6c6d2b9279aa7726205e2d5', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-08-19', 'row_count': 563, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': 'e5f567290d5a428a48270c42f4f992d0ddd370dddaa9439a1c2454f64bf38bba', 'symbol': 'VIX3M.INDX'}}, 'comparison_date': '2026-09-29', 'definition': {'captured_outputs': ['value', 'change_30d_pct'], 'denominator': ['VIX3M.INDX'], 'derivation_version': 'dependency_clocks_and_adjustment_batches_v3', 'minimum_denominator': 1, 'minimum_numerator': 1, 'numerator': ['VIX.INDX'], 'rebase': False, 'rebase_epoch': None}, 'first_observed_at': '2026-10-30 04:23:30.173000+00:00', 'inputs': {'comparison': [{'as_of': '2026-09-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:358624e42702dbc05b0461a627388bf16acb24f50ae0c13611c713cc8ad6e0f5:00d3cb13dd8a28f9b0faa4de53fc89223613fb918f622a50c61d437a8b72bf70', 'symbol': 'VIX.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:9ab438787d2be460f8b2ff475fb39d3e573f9402c70c7a4783a1800b26a70347:d568e6fecc177884e3d434b7746131f04f9978fae92ee71e7e51e5c53ca6a68e', 'symbol': 'VIX3M.INDX'}], 'current': [{'as_of': '2026-10-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:dfb5938a21a654584e65399b0060c9786c1c34f80e8170ed4ccfd066f14b6b3f:95497b36325d028be1fb44e9e9e657a772d1e9d6e03f3c69d35a314d7a27f0b6', 'symbol': 'VIX.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-10-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:93286e018785ff4c80bdf9752ec3d8559334d0af3c4ae2010cd73118c05dd3c5:06748dd60fe2b9b4f8f3838b45b59ddffbd840b4a0adc3aac5d0a45322e4151d', 'symbol': 'VIX3M.INDX'}], 'rebase': []}, 'price_convention': 'adjusted_close_only', 'schema_version': 1, 'source_refs': ['aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:358624e42702dbc05b0461a627388bf16acb24f50ae0c13611c713cc8ad6e0f5:00d3cb13dd8a28f9b0faa4de53fc89223613fb918f622a50c61d437a8b72bf70', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:93286e018785ff4c80bdf9752ec3d8559334d0af3c4ae2010cd73118c05dd3c5:06748dd60fe2b9b4f8f3838b45b59ddffbd840b4a0adc3aac5d0a45322e4151d', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:9ab438787d2be460f8b2ff475fb39d3e573f9402c70c7a4783a1800b26a70347:d568e6fecc177884e3d434b7746131f04f9978fae92ee71e7e51e5c53ca6a68e', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:dfb5938a21a654584e65399b0060c9786c1c34f80e8170ed4ccfd066f14b6b3f:95497b36325d028be1fb44e9e9e657a772d1e9d6e03f3c69d35a314d7a27f0b6'], 'transform_version': 'market-series-lineage-2026-09-20-v2'}, 'vix_vix3m': 0.8879710893133711}

BDCs vs investment-grade credit — ▼ Bearish

• subject: listed BDC pricing relative to investment-grade credit
• chart: private_bdc_lqd
• domain: Private markets
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-10-29 / 2026-10-30 04:23:22+00:00
• interpretation: Down 3.0% over the last 30 days.
• evidence: 30-day relative-price change: -3.04%.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: A 30-day move through the opposite 1.5% threshold.
• data quality: price action, not fundamentals
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': False, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 1.5, 'unit': '%', 'value': -3.0426392341107444, 'window': 'change_30d'}, 'band_pct': 1.5, 'change_30d_pct': -3.0426392341107444, 'components': ['ARCC.US', 'BXSL.US', 'LQD.US', 'OBDC.US'], 'series': 'BASKET_BDC_LQD', 'source_lineage': {'adjustment_snapshots': {'ARCC.US': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 188, 'epoch_values_hash': '9d394e9f5fc86315b4d97ecc794c8aea01c7440816c2d9c41a0e0a2c6f8aef72', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-08-19', 'history_values_hash': '6f5440521df1bcd1835c070999114653a55ddf50784eece4ecd7e49c768a9ca7', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-08-19', 'row_count': 552, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': '523e8961142c867ab02338a8404fba42c93ce62fb1112c18faf2992b24dff83a', 'symbol': 'ARCC.US'}, 'BXSL.US': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 188, 'epoch_values_hash': '3f000f1fe11c818c5fa21ef0f330f89a750bff8915f5be2ecc4f5392d746faf5', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-08-19', 'history_values_hash': '8f0f2384c47ef5c06fd989247f6aee6e8bc0ac3e537b48ec248f81bef0e98c69', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-08-19', 'row_count': 552, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': '7f08b7a18a08f8c31a2771b9a7c52e88983306042382e0e332bc1d98f525d880', 'symbol': 'BXSL.US'}, 'LQD.US': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 188, 'epoch_values_hash': 'fdfe4ce17034895d1164b1c36ad49b18f31d625387e3230c0cccc7b34736de8f', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-08-19', 'history_values_hash': 'd208f9974a419a0f42b0287133a6857b6a0c2b494216d7404563336b453ed7e5', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-08-19', 'row_count': 552, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': '08c77d7e0c818f5092fc48cdfef2866404d448897e12c4985027ac87d5b03e95', 'symbol': 'LQD.US'}, 'OBDC.US': {'epoch': '2026-02-02', 'epoch_row_count': 188, 'epoch_values_hash': '47eecb7df68b5c973e5d554d77a9d448e5214d38c375d72f47cd9c96d6265e32', 'history_end': '2026-10-29', 'history_start': '2024-08-19', 'history_values_hash': '0ef4004cf5fe86303c9370117b724f92b3e70626a7d69aa686dba4f3e826e58f', 'requested_end': '2026-10-30', 'requested_start': '2024-08-19', 'row_count': 552, 'schema_version': 1, 'snapshot_id': 'e262a3fe19c568f0c1ba656d0652f003bfe5b382cc572d450e51bd65c53907ae', 'symbol': 'OBDC.US'}}, 'comparison_date': '2026-09-29', 'definition': {'captured_outputs': ['value', 'change_30d_pct'], 'denominator': ['LQD.US'], 'derivation_version': 'dependency_clocks_and_adjustment_batches_v3', 'minimum_denominator': 1, 'minimum_numerator': 2, 'numerator': ['ARCC.US', 'OBDC.US', 'BXSL.US'], 'rebase': True, 'rebase_epoch': '2026-02-02'}, 'first_observed_at': '2026-10-30 04:23:30.173000+00:00', 'inputs': {'comparison': [{'as_of': '2026-09-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:3a64cc6ff9ddb8dfb3de36e8f00918a86ea2e67a445986d8cf5d0c263830c3bc:7b5f2b9124d9557559dd500920dc6e87e0cfbbd07eac095e1a0dfa9890017ce3', 'symbol': 'ARCC.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:d2f2a2818b63e1e4469df977354c4d0db80aea254c5089d4052fcb28a5c25d95:ea5467a8023244ed1cf57765b81b071d8008f7f75354220a834978fc1bb2a4a6', 'symbol': 'BXSL.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:7905cff0321bb229f71f70d3a10574b7302046902be11e839717fb15e1fa3cc0:72521a1ccf0264c5666cb5b1a62eff4ac4ef77dea8f3084bbebdaa3dfe929a1c', 'symbol': 'LQD.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:250175dcff355df29cfe8e35e1e20eb71980e1a3c61e4cc91e1764e1b32dbe5e:7c304b03cf23960f6c5d0dfb3f1d64ca40f0fe8ec0d27955df7628f292d30836', 'symbol': 'OBDC.US'}], 'current': [{'as_of': '2026-10-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:bc50fccefef0d10b12a28b9f0f5ea5b874acf1537f3de6a0fd087571df27f087:9ebadd3e3b5d5f57de8f3cc1027b23a6b9d305c95bbbe5471559476393c7e936', 'symbol': 'ARCC.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-10-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:43ab5646623166d9aa0df8daead61c6e4e696dbb73a7fb0505352c3796abe7c3:d61157f8dbf793193916d67d4979a051237771291aff5b4824b2e31fbb451a3f', 'symbol': 'BXSL.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-10-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:154dab30e2d45698dddc2d7eacf564dc1f2a7c758df72ab5503a86e666ad329e:aa98dd9937df57c54edf41823f74f97176ca13b98eba971e4f1282d491a3e381', 'symbol': 'LQD.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-10-29', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:3eba3dddbc7e7d7ee4797056409ebc8708dcbad4b7c2ea6c3486c885f1618838:ce554903d253a0e9642c3758d1ab76f736af85880d212c19d06a42c8afbdcf47', 'symbol': 'OBDC.US'}], 'rebase': [{'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:32fc3433423e60f0b3763485fa452c4a0c0fb4155c44dd0c96bd8933f828668d:251c77ef26ba771edcf04d577a14f132226ca6647c1aeb46bb51a1ca1a9a3321', 'symbol': 'ARCC.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:f9090861dda06a5193825dddc0c816e5eb5b4323f93347dc55b8ead1894fae3c:ec963b631a89a0d92317153e24af15e717a56dbc49ee37cc8cf7df363b117d7f', 'symbol': 'BXSL.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:0a3b24d21584e6fbca681b743e988893b825186b4045fce1fe649b2f5c4a58ec:4ecff585168251b7814866594b53e93875d222e2e25ba4da69c09e48125fe528', 'symbol': 'LQD.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:4b75261f1393603e430e77a732da9af9e95bfea66f15b87aa13d3c688550da2b:10b7535fbb6dfcdb7009251b9a63c629b8b7edcb2248dedbc5f7f0264228c316', 'symbol': 'OBDC.US'}]}, 'price_convention': 'adjusted_close_only', 'schema_version': 1, 'source_refs': ['aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:0a3b24d21584e6fbca681b743e988893b825186b4045fce1fe649b2f5c4a58ec:4ecff585168251b7814866594b53e93875d222e2e25ba4da69c09e48125fe528', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:154dab30e2d45698dddc2d7eacf564dc1f2a7c758df72ab5503a86e666ad329e:aa98dd9937df57c54edf41823f74f97176ca13b98eba971e4f1282d491a3e381', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:250175dcff355df29cfe8e35e1e20eb71980e1a3c61e4cc91e1764e1b32dbe5e:7c304b03cf23960f6c5d0dfb3f1d64ca40f0fe8ec0d27955df7628f292d30836', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:32fc3433423e60f0b3763485fa452c4a0c0fb4155c44dd0c96bd8933f828668d:251c77ef26ba771edcf04d577a14f132226ca6647c1aeb46bb51a1ca1a9a3321', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:3a64cc6ff9ddb8dfb3de36e8f00918a86ea2e67a445986d8cf5d0c263830c3bc:7b5f2b9124d9557559dd500920dc6e87e0cfbbd07eac095e1a0dfa9890017ce3', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:3eba3dddbc7e7d7ee4797056409ebc8708dcbad4b7c2ea6c3486c885f1618838:ce554903d253a0e9642c3758d1ab76f736af85880d212c19d06a42c8afbdcf47', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:43ab5646623166d9aa0df8daead61c6e4e696dbb73a7fb0505352c3796abe7c3:d61157f8dbf793193916d67d4979a051237771291aff5b4824b2e31fbb451a3f', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:4b75261f1393603e430e77a732da9af9e95bfea66f15b87aa13d3c688550da2b:10b7535fbb6dfcdb7009251b9a63c629b8b7edcb2248dedbc5f7f0264228c316', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:7905cff0321bb229f71f70d3a10574b7302046902be11e839717fb15e1fa3cc0:72521a1ccf0264c5666cb5b1a62eff4ac4ef77dea8f3084bbebdaa3dfe929a1c', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:bc50fccefef0d10b12a28b9f0f5ea5b874acf1537f3de6a0fd087571df27f087:9ebadd3e3b5d5f57de8f3cc1027b23a6b9d305c95bbbe5471559476393c7e936', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:d2f2a2818b63e1e4469df977354c4d0db80aea254c5089d4052fcb28a5c25d95:ea5467a8023244ed1cf57765b81b071d8008f7f75354220a834978fc1bb2a4a6', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:f9090861dda06a5193825dddc0c816e5eb5b4323f93347dc55b8ead1894fae3c:ec963b631a89a0d92317153e24af15e717a56dbc49ee37cc8cf7df363b117d7f'], 'transform_version': 'market-series-lineage-2026-09-20-v2'}, 'value': 105.49852031446187}

Private AI secondary pricing — ⊘ No read

• subject: private AI-company secondary-market pricing
• chart: private_secondary_discount
• horizon: Near term
• data through: 2026-10-29
• why no read: Tracked, but no qualifying data yet.
• reasons: no direct private-market marks yet
• data quality: none

AI event odds — ⊘ No read

• subject: market-implied probability of registered AI-buildout events
• chart: catalyst_ai_probability
• horizon: Near term
• data through: 2026-10-29
• why no read: Tracked, but no qualifying data yet.
• reasons: event-specific interpretation rules are not implemented; market probabilities remain descriptive
• data quality: none

AMD earnings surprise — ⊘ No read

• subject: AMD quarterly EPS execution versus consensus
• chart: catalyst_earnings_amd
• horizon: Reported quarter
• data through: 2026-10-29
• why no read: No qualifying data yet.
• reasons: reported EPS is retained; its accounting basis and pre-release consensus are not verified as comparable
• data quality: company-specific event; comparison withheld; eps comparison basis unverified; free-tier source

Amazon earnings surprise — ⊘ No read

• subject: AMZN quarterly EPS execution versus consensus
• chart: catalyst_earnings_amzn
• horizon: Reported quarter
• data through: 2026-10-29
• why no read: No qualifying data yet.
• reasons: reported EPS is retained; its accounting basis and pre-release consensus are not verified as comparable
• data quality: company-specific event; comparison withheld; eps comparison basis unverified; free-tier source

Broadcom earnings surprise — ⊘ No read

• subject: AVGO quarterly EPS execution versus consensus
• chart: catalyst_earnings_avgo
• horizon: Reported quarter
• data through: 2026-10-29
• why no read: No qualifying data yet.
• reasons: reported EPS is retained; its accounting basis and pre-release consensus are not verified as comparable
• data quality: company-specific event; comparison withheld; eps comparison basis unverified; free-tier source

Alphabet earnings surprise — ⊘ No read

• subject: GOOGL quarterly EPS execution versus consensus
• chart: catalyst_earnings_googl
• horizon: Reported quarter
• data through: 2026-10-29
• why no read: No qualifying data yet.
• reasons: reported EPS is retained; its accounting basis and pre-release consensus are not verified as comparable
• data quality: company-specific event; comparison withheld; eps comparison basis unverified; free-tier source

Meta earnings surprise — ⊘ No read

• subject: META quarterly EPS execution versus consensus
• chart: catalyst_earnings_meta
• horizon: Reported quarter
• data through: 2026-10-29
• why no read: No qualifying data yet.
• reasons: reported EPS is retained; its accounting basis and pre-release consensus are not verified as comparable
• data quality: company-specific event; comparison withheld; eps comparison basis unverified; free-tier source

Microsoft earnings surprise — ⊘ No read

• subject: MSFT quarterly EPS execution versus consensus
• chart: catalyst_earnings_msft
• horizon: Reported quarter
• data through: 2026-10-29
• why no read: No qualifying data yet.
• reasons: reported EPS is retained; its accounting basis and pre-release consensus are not verified as comparable
• data quality: company-specific event; comparison withheld; eps comparison basis unverified; free-tier source

NVIDIA earnings surprise — ⊘ No read

• subject: NVDA quarterly EPS execution versus consensus
• chart: catalyst_earnings_nvda
• horizon: Reported quarter
• data through: 2026-10-29
• why no read: No qualifying data yet.
• reasons: reported EPS is retained; its accounting basis and pre-release consensus are not verified as comparable
• data quality: company-specific event; comparison withheld; eps comparison basis unverified; free-tier source

Oracle earnings surprise — ⊘ No read

• subject: ORCL quarterly EPS execution versus consensus
• chart: catalyst_earnings_orcl
• horizon: Reported quarter
• data through: 2026-10-29
• why no read: No qualifying data yet.
• reasons: reported EPS is retained; its accounting basis and pre-release consensus are not verified as comparable
• data quality: company-specific event; comparison withheld; eps comparison basis unverified; free-tier source

Implied OpenAI valuation — ⊘ No read

• subject: market-implied OpenAI IPO valuation
• chart: catalyst_openai_valuation
• horizon: Near term
• data through: 2026-10-29
• why no read: No qualifying data yet.
• reasons: the comparison market set is incomplete or unverified
• data quality: bucket-midpoint convention; conditional on an IPO occurring; the comparison market set is incomplete or unverified; prediction-market probabilities

US AI policy events — ⊘ No read

• subject: US policy impact on AI-buildout beneficiaries and constraints
• chart: policy_us_ai_events
• horizon: Near term
• data through: 2026-10-29
• why no read: Tracked, but no qualifying data yet.
• reasons: policy documents not yet classified for impact
• data quality: none

Market Metrics

Power — load (EIA-930, latest complete day)

Power — prices (ISO LMP, latest day)

Compute — GPU rental (latest day)

• H100 1y contract (canonical $/hr): —
• H100 1y contract (offered $/hr): —
• H100 spot (canonical $/hr): —
• H100 spot (offered $/hr): —
• as of: 2026-10-29
• frontier SKU: b300
• frontier spot (offered $/hr): 7.965
• offered-only day: 1
• sources: 1
• spot trend 30d %: —
• spot/contract spread %: —
• note: advertised listings only — canonical (transacted/indexed) columns are empty by construction until an index source is wired (docs/04 — Current limitations).

CEF NAV premium (latest per fund)

Supply chain (latest per series)

Model capability, cost and demand

299 benchmarked model identities; 211 have an exact catalog match. 8 ambiguous benchmark entries remain flagged and are excluded from the excerpt below.

Artificial Analysis — Intelligence Index. Higher reported scores first; each row preserves the evaluator's configuration label. The benchmark version is not reported. These results do not measure full workflow economics.

Showing 8 of 36 eligible configurations.

Usage window: 2026-09-30 → 2026-10-29. OpenRouter public routed traffic excludes private and zero-data-retention traffic. A missing daily top-50 entry is unreported, not zero; ≥ marks a lower bound. Listed prices come from the selected catalog snapshot, not historical executed prices.

Hub links establish access evidence only; licensing and open-versus-closed classification remain unverified.

Sources: Artificial Analysis, via OpenRouter; OpenRouter rankings (aggregate usage: CC BY 4.0).

<details><summary>Model evidence provenance</summary>

``json { "calculation_version": "af3779ec6cbf3911246e8fe74caf8ff20f886255a87bde6af5afe00c24e71206", "knowledge_cutoff": "2026-10-30 23:59:59+00:00", "panel_id": "56d85b9da14e44788dcbc86f81711a0ea8d550dbc628827fa8849f8ead6ca953", "selection": "First eight unambiguous Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index configurations, descending score; ties by source label and record ID.", "selection_version": "30a0afddda0f95664fba0c3d1ad2ed8425d2a67b5f1a22709b9c45e69565d02f", "snapshots": { "openrouter_benchmarks": { "content_fingerprint": "bee48afe7a657b43bc2b13acb32efb058510f46d05b4775f30ce68fed7184bf1", "dataset": "openrouter_benchmarks", "document_ids": [ "c2704bc4a0485a50c0acf88823fd1f4d5309cdbbf7c5a2a5f65787a1727c2979" ], "limitations": [ "evaluator_and_metric_scales_are_distinct", "benchmark_version_not_reported", "search_selects_best_qualifying_configuration", "benchmark_cost_not_full_workflow_cost", "no_historical_receipt_before_collection" ], "observed_at": "2026-10-30 04:21:09", "parser_version": "2dd84fd42be4eb1575bcac2b0158315504ccb290af22e52fd36a5b897001f33f", "partition_key": "public-v1", "published_at": "2026-10-30 04:21:12", "record_count": 1724, "records_hash": "4b102483f7b35710a4547aa88bae76152e2c4d60a4857fb6f5f3b108a2362952", "snapshot_id": "0505fdd9f662a737d0b9f564c387868b7f35310bab8ddbe513ff32e21c25f01b", "source_version": "v1" }, "openrouter_performance": { "content_fingerprint": "e47e23ba15c3efd68d461982d5bad124aed4b60bc00e85408991e1901d92b6e1", "dataset": "openrouter_performance", "document_ids": [ "8a8f282bf15a59b3005211619cfe69fc8f43cc53c3262889d4dda080ce4fc11d", "749160a216e7c1c99e749021a88d3a0e14300a18fb968f7e5c0677364086960e", "99f408262983f61e39bba51f76cc4a346b7048f9ff959079cba8b34ac7beab50", "b647718ddeb5d39625cade1b8ae1188818086ef5710d6902414c39d9d871971a", "8b70819d120e75785e6677a5777bd66998efada3e47ee47dd48bb6ef86daefd1", "6b632b538191237987fc3560e2d0c74549fe95d2d9db66d3b870506c24304ee5", "b1450b092a2ded367ca66c9305cc6c54af5c65e24e130065f2b6c8df8f64dfb3", "475913ab7e4fffe4af265ab06aa8aa81527d7176ebb534b170cb5261a252fda5", "e19bf6cd51ce7f984d9fb92f44c64766ec5cf8b4ac8f3cba02edad56f3c6a584", "923ae46c997d9844e05accd4f38575674def79579511f20817d6cf6e9283a6d0", "5cbb428f1da85cbb78a46476175a1394060d8090a2d25af882e4a80225f33a38", "ae922b30fabfcfaaa24f4173e70c3241fa9669b77c95b479670d6aa7df59736c", "94a2a52f933dbe637c0a69440fda89f01c04e76daea68df023a8259e64c77d0d", "d98803da056b34bfd6fbd81163bd15a0e060de5bcfbedab1742f2e64dacf5a55", "c3998a13da3c2682aaff274918b933787870a66fdb5aa73d42fd3e973b1d3faf", "f37779d0670aa9566c712da10119d322b12c7f26715a7db8e7015dbecb7bf31e", "fed639e10cdc0c47b2409759d4a99913c798905c0cbc1a750fd4f1138c4a77b3", "297659d312d1cd947595175471e6a8626bc5a52990ec717392723a3616fecf8c", "1ef15fda16eb9329bca04106fbc3770cb6c51e447ef413c9a934a462215bccfd", "f35cd29d4b5d4b482fb05a77091a98b1e4f5ee921ba2f1ff8b4c22eee9bf7ef7", "68955cd3b25645de1dea7dbf3d13699c08f0f12c8ca72060f9d3e6e3316fadb3", "f8abcaac5425c15a3b733550438d63ab73e237f1f8e0467ee54f0b737b829583" ], "limitations": [ "selected_top20_catalog_matched_standard_models", "short_window_snapshots_not_daily_averages", "latency_source_unit_not_verified", "catalog_price_not_realized_spend", "hub_link_is_not_verified_open_source_rights" ], "observed_at": "2026-10-30 04:21:15", "parser_version": "2dd84fd42be4eb1575bcac2b0158315504ccb290af22e52fd36a5b897001f33f", "partition_key": "public-v1", "published_at": "2026-10-30 04:21:24", "record_count": 786, "records_hash": "eb7ff093a4a793154057829046590525f7e50126b5d9d98a2ed17e27af6d0ed5", "snapshot_id": "ef34a125336fd6f323f1c219cb26839ce34cebc8137b7a6759f1cbd56fe37f00", "source_version": "catalog-and-top20-v1" }, "openrouter_rankings": { "content_fingerprint": "33b0083abbf376e9207edc4bd2e06dbf2f1010d86790aff6c4b872fe2677c7bf", "dataset": "openrouter_rankings", "document_ids": [ "329e4d7ab87aa0cc7f18d8a9aede7746831b52bfa09166e61de31eac79fc01ef" ], "limitations": [ "public_traffic_excludes_private_and_zdr", "daily_top50_variants_plus_other", "outside_top50_is_censored_not_zero", "provider_tokenizers_differ", "source_may_shorten_requested_window", "no_historical_receipt_before_collection" ], "observed_at": "2026-10-30 04:21:09", "parser_version": "2dd84fd42be4eb1575bcac2b0158315504ccb290af22e52fd36a5b897001f33f", "partition_key": "public-v1", "published_at": "2026-10-30 04:21:12", "record_count": 1530, "records_hash": "1f6238441f4e2c8b74d43c6cd1d4d2619bf8f4f3e78cce1642d7dc734b4fa445", "snapshot_id": "07acbf9b08082a7cb8baae853407f46709cea7c4df24bf037a27ae506eb0b1e3", "source_version": "v1" }, "openrouter_workloads": { "content_fingerprint": "893e835ff979055d7e6d30f8573cd0d2f514003318e968d7c6f9140d5135f1df", "dataset": "openrouter_workloads", "document_ids": [ "dac5eba9ba64ab71c54196feabc2d5ffbbc2ac20cd68a3e979595766885a2b54" ], "limitations": [ "sampled_relative_shares_not_absolute_volumes", "trailing_seven_day_window", "classification_is_not_successful_work", "model_lists_may_be_partial" ], "observed_at": "2026-10-30 03:04:48", "parser_version": "2dd84fd42be4eb1575bcac2b0158315504ccb290af22e52fd36a5b897001f33f", "partition_key": "public-v1", "published_at": "2026-10-30 03:04:48", "record_count": 29, "records_hash": "8edc88f781021d2908b514220fe679f13cb4c01c15bea0377bfe909a4f7e993f", "snapshot_id": "b8733dfff90b66e64275c254062ad1716010a4197f6ce84d14454e433e69cf52", "source_version": "window-7d" } } } ``

</details>

Appendix — Filed Capital-Structure Review

Confirmed facts below carry their recorded reviewer and primary filing. Pending matches are not confirmed transactions. Direction appears only when an analyst separately records a subject, horizon, rationale, and falsifier.

Confirmed facts

• NVIDIA · Purchase obligations total: NVIDIA: the 366000000000.00 USD amount previously labelled capex_commitment is total purchase obligations, as of 2026-07-26. This corrects the classification to match the retained review's own rationale; the amount is unchanged. It is not realized capital expenditure or a newly verified issuer estimate. Original review rationale: Verified against the 10-Q commitments schedule (R55 detail, accession 0001045810-26-000075): total future purchase commitments as of Jul 26 2026 are $366B, composed of supply and capacity $279B, cloud service agreements $29B, data center leases not commenced $25B, equity investments $25B, and capital expenditures $8B, spread remainder-FY2027 $120B / 2028 $100B / 2029 $98B / 2030 $16B / 2031 $10B / 2032+ $22B. Amount recorded is the $366B total contractual commitment; commitment_type=other because the total spans supply, cloud, lease, equity and capex categories (only $8B is the literal capital-expenditures line; breakdown given here). announcement_date is the 10-Q filing date; effective_date is the as-of balance date. primary filing
• NVIDIA · Debt issuance: Verified against two independent primary sources. NVIDIA 10-Q (accession 0001045810-26-000075, period ended Jul 26 2026) states: "In June 2026, we issued an aggregate of $25.0 billion of senior unsecured notes across seven tranches for general corporate purposes." The seven new tranches in the long-term debt schedule (4.250% due 2028 $3.5B; 4.350% due 2029 $3.5B; 4.500% due 2031 $4.0B; 4.750% due 2033 $3.5B; 4.950% due 2036 $4.0B; 5.550% due 2046 $3.0B; 5.625% due 2056 $3.5B) sum to exactly $25.0B and match the prospectus supplement (424B5 dated Jun 15 2026, settlement on or about Jun 18 2026, net proceeds ~$24.9B, consistent with the 10-Q cash-flow debt proceeds of $24.9B). maturity_date left null: seven tranche maturities (2028-2056) cannot be represented by the single-date field; extend the typed fact model for multi-tranche before building the maturity wall from this row. primary filing

Confirmed debt issuance by quarter

Exact maturity wall

Unavailable: no analyst-confirmed amount with an exact maturity date is available.

These are raw confirmed fundamentals, not directional signals. Currencies are not converted or combined, and narrative maturity ranges are not assigned fabricated dates.

Pending review

• ORACLE · capex_commitment: …ed revenues 3,997 2,550 Net cash provided by operating activities 23,103 8,140 Cash flows from investing activities: Purchases of marketable securities and other investments ( 306 ) ( 471 ) Proceeds from sales and maturities of marketable securities and other investments 225 255 Capital expenditures ( 28,499 ) ( 8,502 ) Net cash used for investing activities ( 28,580 ) ( 8,718 ) Cash flows from financing activities: Proceeds from issuances of common stock via at-the-market program, net of issuance costs 19,909 — Net proceeds from employee stock programs 41 1,153 Payments of… primary filing
• MICROSOFT · capex_commitment: …lents, short-term investments, cash flows from operations, and access to capital markets to continue to be sufficient to fund our operating activities and cash commitments for investing and financing activities, such as dividends, share repurchases, debt maturities, and material capital expenditures, for at least the next 12 months and thereafter for the foreseeable future. Cash, Cash Equivalents, and Investments Cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments totaled $64.5 billion and $76.8 billion as of September 30, 2026 and June 30, 2026, respectively. Equity and oth… primary filing
• MICROSOFT · debt_refinancing_maturity: …ect existing cash, cash equivalents, short-term investments, cash flows from operations, and access to capital markets to continue to be sufficient to fund our operating activities and cash commitments for investing and financing activities, such as dividends, share repurchases, debt maturities, and material capital expenditures, for at least the next 12 months and thereafter for the foreseeable future. Cash, Cash Equivalents, and Investments Cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments totaled $64.5 billion and $76.8 billion as of September 30, 2026 and June 30,… primary filing
• MICROSOFT · capex_commitment: …minations, see “Description of the Notes—Interest Rate on the Floating Rate Notes.” S-10 Table of Contents USE OF PROCEEDS The net proceeds from the sale of the notes will be used for general corporate purposes, which may include, among other things, funding for working capital, capital expenditures, repurchases of our capital stock, acquisitions and repayment of our existing debt. S-11 Table of Contents CAPITALIZATION The following sets forth our capitalization on a consolidated basis as of September 30, 2026 . We have presented our capitalization on both an actual and an… primary filing

Rejected matches (not evidence)

Appendix — Data Coverage

Operational snapshot at report generation time. Run timestamps can post-date the evidence period; a source watermark can also be a scheduled future event date and does not extend the report's evidence window.

Methodology: the runtime is deterministic end to end. Each chart is labelled bullish, bearish, mixed, or no read for an explicitly named subject and horizon. No domain total, composite, or numeric confidence is calculated. Missing evidence remains unavailable; hits and misses publish at equal prominence. The sha256 of this issue's final markdown is stored append-only in aib_gold.report_issues for future external anchoring.