PREXEL — AI_BUILDOUT · Issue No. 25 (daily)

Period: 2026-09-16 → 2026-09-16

Context hash: 7b63883ca85f4351872d975a993af101a18cf7166f1f0c17418aad16d71d3c11

Corrections recorded at publication · show records

Corrections and withdrawals

These are separate correction records. Original publication bytes remain unchanged.

23 observation-level correction records are also retained in the machine-readable correction ledger.

corrected · 50974ec6e8f4d52b4411d251ba2331fdfcea81109bd9293754e62938b33fdc4b · 2026-09-15 06:40:47: GOOGL's +216.32% EPS surprise is withdrawn. The 9.11 actual and 2.88 estimate lack a verified matching accounting basis. The reported mixed read must be unavailable; no replacement surprise is asserted.

Correction hash: 93baf362b46f811f0d45dc312a3184d75a4005b974110a867b7505a5345628fe.

corrected · 021135f8ad7727749bfcf1c80657a64b856e44a077037c9da3a0361b3d89f206 · 2026-09-15 06:40:47: GOOGL's +216.32% EPS surprise is withdrawn. The 9.11 actual and 2.88 estimate lack a verified matching accounting basis. The reported mixed read must be unavailable; no replacement surprise is asserted.

Correction hash: cfd37e089b097d549da444eb7b11c5cc673cd4dec888847215c85521bee5cc36.

corrected · 7c40a7f6f8c46783e9547a765c3214728eb29371124af21519232b784e6a601c · 2026-09-15 06:40:47: GOOGL's +216.32% EPS surprise is withdrawn. The 9.11 actual and 2.88 estimate lack a verified matching accounting basis. The reported mixed read must be unavailable; no replacement surprise is asserted.

Correction hash: 90dd89d0391d5d0cf9b6f98c8656e8a943e5c1d6b598d618799dcb235f92b083.

corrected · 0182be499f63c5b68e80ee9a65c2542793e5d156471bb7bae72d11bde25c068d · 2026-09-15 06:40:47: GOOGL's +216.32% EPS surprise is withdrawn. The 9.11 actual and 2.88 estimate lack a verified matching accounting basis. The reported mixed read must be unavailable; no replacement surprise is asserted.

Correction hash: 8624de383a1825527197ad802f724a7b002c0133524e12391ad047e46d3df595.

corrected · 68b296062ffa53d3ad9152bb0d503ea747d2e3d76e93f9e96520cac90adc2789 · 2026-09-15 06:40:47: GOOGL's +216.32% EPS surprise is withdrawn. The 9.11 actual and 2.88 estimate lack a verified matching accounting basis. The reported mixed read must be unavailable; no replacement surprise is asserted.

Correction hash: d38f37f6aa748253e925aba2021dccdcff747909211fb7bed0f4e37224b33af3.

corrected · c2fa4e93f5cf1dc0111b262abff3161adaf314993f3b88afa20a7d6b26a8b3e2 · 2026-09-15 06:40:47: GOOGL's +216.32% EPS surprise is withdrawn. The 9.11 actual and 2.88 estimate lack a verified matching accounting basis. The reported mixed read must be unavailable; no replacement surprise is asserted.

Correction hash: fd6d477e2e0fbce1571d47e1e0e9e6a148dbe6f4a69c3b3e565439bafa4b5145.

corrected · 01822c379d79fc2a90b6e2a763d681fccecedf3327c560178d314d774ca4e6f3 · 2026-09-15 06:40:47: GOOGL's +216.32% EPS surprise is withdrawn. The 9.11 actual and 2.88 estimate lack a verified matching accounting basis. The reported mixed read must be unavailable; no replacement surprise is asserted.

Correction hash: c7b5e73b2f8e67d4b0ec9386536e70bc900e154562f858533a9eab83e722f29f.

corrected · 1916e2fa15395121e251f8aa35b14d56d4262671eda9077114f7b2cb8ffa957b · 2026-09-15 06:40:47: GOOGL's +216.32% EPS surprise is withdrawn. The 9.11 actual and 2.88 estimate lack a verified matching accounting basis. The reported mixed read must be unavailable; no replacement surprise is asserted.

Correction hash: 7523c8c539083529f488ab7a8e6ff70be9d047eb40b1a8892c38827941039f26.

corrected · 77096b587feed4d270ba30d4d755301020fbb0a408fa9727d84ec0e58b665c87 · 2026-09-15 06:40:47: GOOGL's +216.32% EPS surprise is withdrawn. The 9.11 actual and 2.88 estimate lack a verified matching accounting basis. The reported mixed read must be unavailable; no replacement surprise is asserted.

Correction hash: 34b78695f8f358902e0ae02ad95b0567e274e015409be69d810f7eed85929009.

corrected · cbd3bab7852c663972d7e3dfebe1e69adf8f7f7ef25adfa36c1cd845a5a72dbc · 2026-09-15 06:40:47: GOOGL's +216.32% EPS surprise is withdrawn. The 9.11 actual and 2.88 estimate lack a verified matching accounting basis. The reported mixed read must be unavailable; no replacement surprise is asserted.

Correction hash: 0bd6777a1736f896a849f115abbd3da55592b860acca4c2556985c58854f594e.

corrected · cd920d0c89feae9abc05632ad95a3ad5f36926e78e43b5f60a41a8abf3a42677 · 2026-09-15 06:40:47: GOOGL's +216.32% EPS surprise is withdrawn. The 9.11 actual and 2.88 estimate lack a verified matching accounting basis. The reported mixed read must be unavailable; no replacement surprise is asserted.

Correction hash: 52f9dfa0006469319b1ae41721a8a9c99afb9936d2b0338b63515eef82b10776.

corrected · 0fd23282bdf8881fdf43254def18357f480481cd4d2b0871a046c31eb7219513 · 2026-09-15 06:40:47: GOOGL's +216.32% EPS surprise is withdrawn. The 9.11 actual and 2.88 estimate lack a verified matching accounting basis. The reported mixed read must be unavailable; no replacement surprise is asserted.

Correction hash: 88335010fba23fbff95ac59e286e4e224ed9ae2ca22d032f1f3f6db59de4cf92.

corrected · e0c88e12e958c687891682c78e20a036b774d485e4f85ff7b3988fc590016d58 · 2026-09-15 06:40:47: GOOGL's +216.32% EPS surprise is withdrawn. The 9.11 actual and 2.88 estimate lack a verified matching accounting basis. The reported mixed read must be unavailable; no replacement surprise is asserted.

Correction hash: d3d118417005a50778cda64be36301bacbc87bc0122cbb1e665e53202cf0e7b4.

corrected · 7d6a992041898e2c4b349c2610a901cf32df9471d360bd09b400164b0da51fda · 2026-09-15 06:40:47: GOOGL's +216.32% EPS surprise is withdrawn. The 9.11 actual and 2.88 estimate lack a verified matching accounting basis. The reported mixed read must be unavailable; no replacement surprise is asserted.

Correction hash: c8e14861f4e0ca8ef9c6c7183ed4b07100348f14bca3a48bf3693dca9a23191d.

corrected · cef_nav_daily/DXYZ/2026-08-28/legacy_date_join · 2026-09-15 04:06:58: The 20:02:19 UTC filing was unavailable at the 20:00 UTC close. At a $34.74 close, the admissible $24.56 NAV gives a 41.4495% premium, replacing 1.2828% based on the later $34.30 NAV. This correction is published now; it does not backdate a retained source receipt.

Correction hash: df6f2c9e0aa95b73426b322517bc97ea57c21125d703d17c44329fb1c5d7e601.

corrected · c15ac1a7c457b77354415454eb7fdd0b52bea70286d708d9e95157a3eac3bbea · 2026-09-15 04:06:58: GOOGL's +216.32% EPS surprise is withdrawn. The 9.11 actual and 2.88 estimate lack a verified matching accounting basis. The reported mixed read must be unavailable; no replacement surprise is asserted.

Correction hash: b574a32073de101173ca3613d94fe81e24891fd8cffff3b7252a1184b2a002d5.

withdrawn · e587d540-b100-53fc-a672-8866755504c6 · 2026-09-15 04:06:58: The DXYZ mechanical forced-sell claim is withdrawn. $30,450,945.15 was excess unsigned turnover, not evidenced compelled selling. Neither direction nor notional is established; its event-date knowledge timestamp is invalid. FT_CEF_NAV emission and dependent opportunity creation are disabled.

Correction hash: 303bcf497be5ca9076268a20ffc784ebbc33785fd69e6f82e745c6eff10c4f61.

corrected · b7789873fefa1373782e172c9a8c4e3596f0515bb5ff833432ae48b4b44b8464 · 2026-09-15 04:06:58: GOOGL's +216.32% EPS surprise is withdrawn. The 9.11 actual and 2.88 estimate lack a verified matching accounting basis. The reported mixed read must be unavailable; no replacement surprise is asserted.

Correction hash: db55815479ff32ea1a90bbef345af30d7ddfd0f6d42c537128ca01dadaf0bca7.

Published Changes in This Issue Period

Open patterns

FOUNDRY_VS_SEMICONDUCTOR_MARKET_DIVERGENCE — conflict across Capital markets + Supply chain; open since 4 Sep.

Evidence and call changes

Semiconductors vs S&P 500: ▼ Bearish — semiconductor equity leadership relative to the broad US market (Near term); New evidence; Interpretation rule changed; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
CLO BBB vs AAA tranches: ◆ Mixed — marginal risk appetite in the AI buildout's securitized-debt channel (Near term); New evidence; Interpretation rule changed; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
AI-complex correlation regime: ◆ Mixed — single-narrative fragility of the US-listed AI-buildout complex (Medium term); Interpretation rule changed; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
High-yield vs investment-grade credit: ◆ Mixed — public-credit risk appetite relevant to AI-buildout financing (Near term); New evidence; Interpretation rule changed; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
Equal-weight vs cap-weight S&P: ▼ Bearish — US equity breadth relative to capitalization-weighted equities (Near term); New evidence; Interpretation rule changed; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
Nasdaq 100 vs S&P 500: ▼ Bearish — mega-cap concentration in US equities (Near term); New evidence; Interpretation rule changed; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
Utilities vs S&P 500: ▼ Bearish — utilities repricing relative to the broad market (Near term); New evidence; Interpretation rule changed; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
VIX term structure: ▲ Bullish — near-term public-market risk appetite (Near term); New evidence; Interpretation rule changed; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
AI event odds: ⊘ No read — market-implied probability of registered AI-buildout events (Near term); Interpretation rule changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
AMD earnings surprise: ⊘ No read — AMD quarterly EPS execution versus consensus (Reported quarter); Interpretation rule changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
Amazon earnings surprise: ⊘ No read — AMZN quarterly EPS execution versus consensus (Reported quarter); Interpretation rule changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
Broadcom earnings surprise: ⊘ No read — AVGO quarterly EPS execution versus consensus (Reported quarter); Interpretation rule changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
Alphabet earnings surprise: ⊘ No read — GOOGL quarterly EPS execution versus consensus (Reported quarter); Interpretation rule changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
Meta earnings surprise: ⊘ No read — META quarterly EPS execution versus consensus (Reported quarter); Interpretation rule changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
Microsoft earnings surprise: ⊘ No read — MSFT quarterly EPS execution versus consensus (Reported quarter); Interpretation rule changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
NVIDIA earnings surprise: ⊘ No read — NVDA quarterly EPS execution versus consensus (Reported quarter); Interpretation rule changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
Oracle earnings surprise: ⊘ No read — ORCL quarterly EPS execution versus consensus (Reported quarter); Interpretation rule changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
Implied OpenAI valuation: ▼ Bearish — market-implied OpenAI IPO valuation (Near term); Interpretation rule changed; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
Colo asking rents — N. Virginia: ▲ Bullish — landlord pricing power in Northern Virginia colocation (Quarterly); Interpretation rule changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
Colo capacity delivered — N. Virginia: ▲ Bullish — delivered wholesale colocation capacity in Northern Virginia (Quarterly); Interpretation rule changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
Data-centre landlords vs S&P 500: ▼ Bearish — listed data-centre landlord pricing relative to the broad market (Near term); New evidence; Interpretation rule changed; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
Colo vacancy — N. Virginia: ▲ Bullish — landlord pricing power in Northern Virginia colocation (Quarterly); Interpretation rule changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
Hyperscalers vs S&P 500: ▲ Bullish — public-market pricing of the hyperscaler cohort relative to the broad market (Near term); New evidence; Interpretation rule changed; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
Neoclouds vs S&P 500: ▼ Bearish — public-market pricing of the neocloud cohort relative to the broad market (Near term); New evidence; Interpretation rule changed; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
AI power names vs S&P 500: ▼ Bearish — public-market pricing of the AI-power cohort relative to the broad market (Near term); New evidence; Interpretation rule changed; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
B200 vs H100 rental price: ▲ Bullish — frontier-vs-installed-base GPU rental pricing (Near term); Interpretation rule changed; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
GPU rental availability: ◆ Mixed — GPU rental-provider pricing power (Near term); Interpretation rule changed; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
GPU marketplace depth: ◆ Mixed — GPU rental lessor pricing power (Near term); Interpretation rule changed; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
GPU resale values: ⊘ No read — GPU asset residual values (Medium term); Interpretation rule changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
GPU spot vs contract pricing: ⊘ No read — near-term GPU rental pricing (Near term); Interpretation rule changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
H100 spot rental price: ▲ Bullish — H100 rental-provider pricing power (Near term); Interpretation rule changed; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
Inference demand — OpenRouter: ▲ Bullish — OpenRouter public-app inference activity (Near term); Interpretation rule changed; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
Inference demand concentration: ▼ Bearish — durability of routed inference demand (Near term); Interpretation rule changed; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
Inference price cuts (like-for-like): ◆ Mixed — like-for-like inference pricing for compute sellers (Near term); Interpretation rule changed; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
Effective inference price: ◆ Mixed — inference unit economics for compute sellers (Near term); Interpretation rule changed; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
Model launch cadence: ▲ Bullish — frontier-model supply cadence (Medium term); Interpretation rule changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
Open-weights token share: ⊘ No read — substitution pressure on closed-model pricing power (Near term); Interpretation rule changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
US AI policy events: ⊘ No read — US policy impact on AI-buildout beneficiaries and constraints (Near term); Interpretation rule changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
CAISO day-ahead power prices: ▼ Bearish — California day-ahead power prices relevant to data-centre siting (Near term); Interpretation rule changed; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
CAISO implied heat rate: ⊘ No read — scarcity of dispatchable power net of fuel in CAISO (Near term); Interpretation rule changed; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
Data-centre load premium: ▼ Bearish — excess PJM load growth attributable to data-centre buildout (Near term); Interpretation rule changed; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
Dominion (N. Virginia) electricity demand: ▲ Bullish — Dominion-zone electricity demand as the ground-truth NoVA data-centre load read (Near term); Interpretation rule changed; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
N. Virginia power basis: ⊘ No read — Northern Virginia data-centre power economics (Near term); Interpretation rule changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
Nuclear fuel cycle vs S&P 500: ▼ Bearish — public-market pricing of the long-duration nuclear power cohort relative to the broad market (Near term); New evidence; Interpretation rule changed; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
PJM electricity demand: ▼ Bearish — PJM electricity demand (Near term); Interpretation rule changed; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
PJM day-ahead vs real-time prices: ⊘ No read — near-term PJM electricity demand (Near term); Interpretation rule changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
Data-centre power capacity delivery: ⊘ No read — AI data-centre capacity delivery (Structural); Interpretation rule changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
BDCs vs investment-grade credit: ◆ Mixed — listed BDC pricing relative to investment-grade credit (Near term); New evidence; Interpretation rule changed; Evidence eligibility changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
Private AI secondary pricing: ⊘ No read — private AI-company secondary-market pricing (Near term); Interpretation rule changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
TSMC monthly revenue: ▲ Bullish — leading foundry demand represented by TSMC monthly revenue (Near term); Interpretation rule changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.
Korean chip exports: ⊘ No read — Korean semiconductor export demand (Near term); Interpretation rule changed. Published 2026-09-16T06:28:09.886372+00:00.

Today in Brief

Recorded changed reads: 51 chart-local read(s); comparison coverage is stated in the published briefing above.
Current evidence coverage: 32 usable / 19 no read — 11 bullish, 13 bearish, 8 mixed. These are coverage counts, not an aggregate market signal.
Open cross-domain events: 1
Filed capital-structure candidates (trailing 90d): 6
Forced-flow events (trailing 30d): 0
Open monitored opportunities: 0

Cross-Domain Events

Open

Open
code	relationship	domains	detected	horizon d
FOUNDRY_VS_SEMICONDUCTOR_MARKET_DIVERGENCE	conflict	capital_markets+supply_chain	2026-09-04 12:40:59+00:00	90

Recently resolved (trailing 14d)

Recently resolved (trailing 14d)
code	domains	resolved	resolution
FOUNDRY_VS_SEMICONDUCTOR_MARKET_DIVERGENCE	capital_markets+supply_chain	2026-09-03 10:34:49+00:00	The registered relationship no longer holds.

Forced Flows & Opportunities

No forced-flow events fired in the trailing 30 days.

No open opportunities.

Settled (trailing 30d — hits, misses, kills, unresolvables at parity)

Settled (trailing 30d — hits, misses, kills, unresolvables at parity)
setup class	instrument	status	settled at	calibration	availability
FADE_FORCED_FLOW	DXYZ	killed	2026-08-30 23:03:29	Not yet graded (0 settled calls)	Retrospective

Filed Capital-Structure Developments

3 confirmed fact(s), 1 awaiting review, and 2 rejected match(es). Pending candidates are not confirmed transactions.

MICROSOFT · capex_commitment: 329100000000.00 USD; announced 2026-07-29.
NVIDIA · capex_commitment: 366000000000.00 USD; announced 2026-08-26.
NVIDIA · debt_issuance: 25000000000.00 USD; announced 2026-06-15.
Review queue: ORACLE — Capex commitment.

Full filing links, excerpts, reviewer facts, and methodology are in the appendix.

Evidence Appendix — All Directional Observations

B200 vs H100 rental price — ▲ Bullish

subject: frontier-vs-installed-base GPU rental pricing
chart: compute_b200_h100
domain: Compute
horizon: Near term
legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-15 / 2026-09-15 19:23:59+00:00
interpretation: The B200/H100 rent ratio is expanding — the frontier premium is strengthening.
evidence: b200_h100_ratio=2.6992621183584458; b200_h100_ratio_change_14d_pct=0.12780445272091004; b200_offered_usd_hr=7.563932291666667; band_measured_pct=12.780445272091004; band_pct=5.0; h100_spot_usd_hr=2.8022222222222224
conflicting evidence: none recorded
What would change this call: The 14-day B200/H100 ratio change crosses the opposite 5% band.
data quality: advertised prices, not closed deals; source records not yet linked
metrics:

unparsed: {'b200_h100_ratio': 2.6992621183584458, 'b200_h100_ratio_change_14d_pct': 0.12780445272091004, 'b200_offered_usd_hr': 7.563932291666667, 'band': {'inclusive': False, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 5.0, 'unit': '%', 'value': 12.780445272091004, 'window': 'change_14d'}, 'band_measured_pct': 12.780445272091004, 'band_pct': 5.0, 'h100_spot_usd_hr': 2.8022222222222224}

GPU rental availability — ◆ Mixed

subject: GPU rental-provider pricing power
chart: compute_availability
domain: Compute
horizon: Near term
legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-15 / 2026-09-15 19:23:59+00:00
interpretation: GPU capacity listed as available.
evidence: availability_state=available; capacity_booked_through=None
conflicting evidence: none recorded
What would change this call: Marketplace availability flipping to the opposite state.
data quality: advertised prices, not closed deals; source records not yet linked
metrics:

unparsed: {'availability_state': 'available', 'capacity_booked_through': None}

GPU marketplace depth — ◆ Mixed

subject: GPU rental lessor pricing power
chart: compute_gpu_depth
domain: Compute
horizon: Near term
legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-15 / 2026-09-15 19:23:59+00:00
interpretation: Listing depth and offered prices do not move jointly in a registered direction.
evidence: h100_depth_change_14d_pct=0.2422360248447205; h100_depth_smoothed_3d=50.0; h100_dispersion_smoothed_3d=1.8011771238200993; h100_price_change_14d_pct=0.050395668888686185
conflicting evidence: none recorded
What would change this call: The joint 14-day condition reverses: smoothed depth and price changes take the opposite sign pair.
data quality: advertised prices, not closed deals; single marketplace panel; source records not yet linked
metrics:

unparsed: {'h100_depth_change_14d_pct': 0.2422360248447205, 'h100_depth_smoothed_3d': 50.0, 'h100_dispersion_smoothed_3d': 1.8011771238200993, 'h100_price_change_14d_pct': 0.050395668888686185}

GPU resale values — ⊘ No read

subject: GPU asset residual values
chart: compute_residual_value
horizon: Medium term
data through: 2026-09-15
why no read: No qualifying data yet.
reasons: secondary-market data not yet available
data quality: source not yet wired

GPU spot vs contract pricing — ⊘ No read

subject: near-term GPU rental pricing
chart: compute_spot_contract
horizon: Near term
data through: 2026-09-15
why no read: No qualifying data yet.
reasons: not enough term-structure history yet
data quality: advertised prices, not closed deals

H100 spot rental price — ▲ Bullish

subject: H100 rental-provider pricing power
chart: compute_h100_spot
domain: Compute
horizon: Near term
legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-15 / 2026-09-15 19:23:59+00:00
interpretation: H100 spot rental prices are firming.
evidence: band_measured_pct=40.81518637150953; band_pct=8.0; h100_spot_usd_hr=2.8022222222222224; spot_trend_30d_pct=0.4081518637150953
conflicting evidence: none recorded
What would change this call: The 30-day price trend crosses the opposite 8% threshold.
data quality: advertised prices, not closed deals; source records not yet linked
metrics:

unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': True, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 8.0, 'unit': '%', 'value': 40.81518637150953, 'window': 'change_30d'}, 'band_measured_pct': 40.81518637150953, 'band_pct': 8.0, 'h100_spot_usd_hr': 2.8022222222222224, 'spot_trend_30d_pct': 0.4081518637150953}

Inference demand — OpenRouter — ▲ Bullish

subject: OpenRouter public-app inference activity
chart: compute_inference_demand
domain: Compute
horizon: Near term
legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-15 / 2026-09-16 06:25:43+00:00
interpretation: Up 10.3% over the last seven snapshots.
evidence: Seven-snapshot token-activity change: 10.30%.
conflicting evidence: none recorded
What would change this call: The activity trend crossing the opposite 2% threshold.
data quality: token counts differ across models; public apps only; rolling 30-day window; source records not yet linked
metrics:

unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': False, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 2.0, 'unit': '%', 'value': 10.302392588184661, 'window': 'seven_snapshots'}, 'band_pct': 2.0, 'token_change_7d_pct': 10.302392588184661, 'top_n': 100, 'total_requests': 2538705400, 'total_tokens': 159803410478258}

Inference demand concentration — ▼ Bearish

subject: durability of routed inference demand
chart: compute_demand_concentration
domain: Compute
horizon: Near term
legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-15 / 2026-09-16 06:25:43+00:00
interpretation: Routed inference demand is concentrating into its largest apps — the demand base is thinning.
evidence: Fourteen-day concentration change: +2.04pp.; Top-10 apps' share of top-100 attributed tokens: 80.6%.
conflicting evidence: none recorded
What would change this call: The 14-day top-10 concentration change crosses the opposite 1.5-point band.
data quality: public apps only; rolling 30-day window; source records not yet linked
metrics:

unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': False, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 1.5, 'unit': 'pp', 'value': 2.0385851576824052, 'window': 'change_14d'}, 'band_pp': 1.5, 'top10_app_token_share': 80.57587026851833, 'top10_share_change_14d_pp': 2.0385851576824052}

Inference price cuts (like-for-like) — ◆ Mixed

subject: like-for-like inference pricing for compute sellers
chart: compute_price_cuts
domain: Compute
horizon: Near term
legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-15 / 2026-09-16 06:25:43+00:00
interpretation: The like-for-like fixed-basket price is inside its registered 7-day band.
evidence: Cut/raise events vs the prior catalog snapshot: 18 cuts, 14 raises.; Fixed-basket price at prior-day token weights: $0.710/Mtok.; Seven-day like-for-like change: +1.30%.
conflicting evidence: none recorded
What would change this call: The 7-day like-for-like fixed-basket price change crosses the opposite 3% band.
data quality: fixed basket, prior-day token weights; a single router's traffic; source records not yet linked
metrics:

unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': False, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 3.0, 'unit': '%', 'value': 1.2998401669533255, 'window': 'change_7d'}, 'band_pct': 3.0, 'fixed_basket_model_count': 329, 'fixed_basket_price_usd_mtok': 0.7096969949310115, 'like_for_like_change_7d_pct': 1.2998401669533255, 'price_cut_model_count': 18, 'price_raise_model_count': 14}

Effective inference price — ◆ Mixed

subject: inference unit economics for compute sellers
chart: compute_inference_price
domain: Compute
horizon: Near term
legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-15 / 2026-09-16 06:25:43+00:00
interpretation: The effective inference price is inside its registered 7-day band.
evidence: Seven-day effective-price change: -6.82%.; Token-weighted effective price: $0.702/Mtok.
conflicting evidence: none recorded
What would change this call: The 7-day effective-price change crosses the opposite 8% band.
data quality: a panel, not a census; a single router's traffic; source records not yet linked; token-weighted blend across models
metrics:

unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': False, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 8.0, 'unit': '%', 'value': -6.824698131433027, 'window': 'change_7d'}, 'band_pct': 8.0, 'effective_price_change_7d_pct': -6.824698131433027, 'effective_price_usd_mtok': 0.702471140692961, 'matched_model_count': 331, 'total_standard_tokens': 115197111294252, 'unmatched_token_share': 0.5249099659456233}

Model launch cadence — ▲ Bullish

subject: frontier-model supply cadence
chart: compute_model_launches
domain: Compute
horizon: Medium term
legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-08-01 / 2026-09-15 07:35:40+00:00
interpretation: New-model listings are running ahead of their trailing baseline — frontier-model supply cadence is accelerating.
evidence: Prior twelve-month baseline: 18.8 listings/month.; Relative change: +84.9%.; Trailing three complete months: 104 new listings (34.7/month).
conflicting evidence: Retroactive months undercount models delisted before the first catalog snapshot, which biases the trailing-vs-baseline comparison toward acceleration.
What would change this call: The trailing-3-month listing rate crosses the opposite 25% band versus the prior-12-month baseline.
data quality: a single router's traffic; source records not yet linked; retroactive series — survivorship-biased
metrics:

unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': False, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 25.0, 'unit': '%', 'value': 84.88888888888889, 'window': 'rate_3mo_vs_prior_12mo'}, 'band_rel_pct': 25.0, 'baseline_12mo_rate': 18.75, 'listing_rate_change_pct': 84.88888888888889, 'newest_complete_month': '2026-08-01', 'trailing_3mo_listings': 104, 'trailing_3mo_rate': 34.666666666666664}

Open-weights token share — ⊘ No read

subject: substitution pressure on closed-model pricing power
chart: compute_openweights_share
horizon: Near term
data through: 2026-09-15
why no read: Open-weights models carry 66.1% of routed standard tokens, but the 14-day comparison window is not yet met.
reasons: not enough share history yet
data quality: a panel, not a census; a single router's traffic

TSMC monthly revenue — ▲ Bullish

subject: leading foundry demand represented by TSMC monthly revenue
chart: supply_tsmc_revenue
domain: Supply chain
horizon: Near term
legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-15 / 2026-09-14 16:00:00+00:00
interpretation: Up 53.3% over the last year.
evidence: tsmc_revenue published year-on-year growth: 53.32%.
conflicting evidence: none recorded
What would change this call: Year-over-year growth crossing zero.
data quality: revised in bronze; source publication time unverified
metrics:

unparsed: {'mom_pct': 10.099818994181083, 'source_period': '2026-08-01', 'value': 514805337000.0, 'yoy_pct': 53.320053714712955}

Korean chip exports — ⊘ No read

subject: Korean semiconductor export demand
chart: supply_korea_semiconductor_exports
horizon: Near term
data through: 2026-09-15
why no read: No qualifying data yet.
reasons: monthly growth figure not yet available
data quality: none

CAISO day-ahead power prices — ▼ Bearish

subject: California day-ahead power prices relevant to data-centre siting
chart: power_lmp_caiso
domain: Power
horizon: Near term
legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-15 / 2026-09-16 06:26:11+00:00
interpretation: California day-ahead power prices are running materially above their prior two-week average.
evidence: CAISO NP15 DA 7-day average $69.30/MWh vs prior 14-day $46.67/MWh (+48.5%)
conflicting evidence: none recorded
What would change this call: The seven-day average day-ahead price re-crosses the registered ±15% band versus the prior fourteen-day average.
data quality: secondary AI region — proxy read; source records not yet linked
metrics:

unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': True, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 15.0, 'unit': '%', 'value': 48.48982096772324, 'window': 'mean_7d_vs_prior_14d'}, 'band_pct': 15.0, 'caiso_da_7d_avg_usd_mwh': 69.30370906442576, 'caiso_da_prior_14d_avg_usd_mwh': 46.67236354166666, 'caiso_da_trend_pct': 48.48982096772324}

CAISO implied heat rate — ⊘ No read

subject: scarcity of dispatchable power net of fuel in CAISO
chart: power_heat_rate_caiso
horizon: Near term
data through: 2026-09-15
why no read: No qualifying data yet.
reasons: not enough heat-rate history yet
data quality: Henry Hub gas proxy, not local basis; secondary AI region — proxy read

Data-centre load premium — ▼ Bearish

subject: excess PJM load growth attributable to data-centre buildout
chart: power_dc_load_premium
domain: Power
horizon: Near term
legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-15 / 2026-09-16 06:26:11+00:00
interpretation: PJM load growth is materially lagging the CISO/ERCO controls — no excess growth attributable to data-centre buildout.
evidence: PJM 7-day mean weather-blind YoY +15.30% vs control mean +18.97% (gap -3.68pp)
conflicting evidence: none recorded
What would change this call: The seven-day mean PJM-minus-control YoY growth gap re-crosses the registered ±1.5-point band.
data quality: attribution by subtraction, not measurement; source records not yet linked; weather-blind same-week YoY method
metrics:

unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': True, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 1.5, 'unit': 'pp', 'value': -3.675187575795272, 'window': 'yoy_gap_7d_mean'}, 'band_pp': 1.5, 'ciso_load_yoy_7d_pct': 21.47434044915986, 'dc_load_premium_pp': -3.675187575795272, 'erco_load_yoy_7d_pct': 16.4748521028577, 'pjm_load_yoy_7d_pct': 15.29940870021351}

Dominion (N. Virginia) electricity demand — ▲ Bullish

subject: Dominion-zone electricity demand as the ground-truth NoVA data-centre load read
chart: power_load_nova
domain: Power
horizon: Near term
legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-15 / 2026-09-16 06:26:11+00:00
interpretation: Dominion-zone demand is growing materially versus the same week last year — data-centre load is materializing.
evidence: Dominion-zone 7-day mean weather-blind YoY +26.31% (n=5)
conflicting evidence: none recorded
What would change this call: The seven-day mean weather-blind year-over-year growth re-crosses the registered ±3% band.
data quality: source records not yet linked; weather-blind same-week YoY method
metrics:

unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': True, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 3.0, 'unit': '%', 'value': 26.312695406389935, 'window': 'yoy_7d_mean'}, 'band_pct': 3.0, 'nova_load_yoy_7d_pct': 26.312695406389935, 'nova_load_yoy_window_obs': 5}

N. Virginia power basis — ⊘ No read

subject: Northern Virginia data-centre power economics
chart: power_basis_nova
horizon: Near term
data through: 2026-09-15
why no read: No qualifying data yet.
reasons: power-basis data not yet available
data quality: none

Nuclear fuel cycle vs S&P 500 — ▼ Bearish

subject: public-market pricing of the long-duration nuclear power cohort relative to the broad market
chart: power_nuclear_spx
domain: Power
horizon: Near term
legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-15 / 2026-09-16 06:27:47+00:00
interpretation: Down 12.1% over the last 30 days.
evidence: 30-day relative-price change: -12.05%.
conflicting evidence: none recorded
What would change this call: A 30-day move through the opposite 2.0% threshold.
data quality: correlation, not exposure evidence; price action, not fundamentals
metrics:

unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': False, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 2.0, 'unit': '%', 'value': -12.05458591642361, 'window': 'change_30d'}, 'band_pct': 2.0, 'change_30d_pct': -12.05458591642361, 'components': ['BWXT.US', 'CCJ.US', 'GSPC.INDX', 'LEU.US', 'OKLO.US', 'URNM.US'], 'series': 'BASKET_NUCLEAR_SPX', 'source_lineage': {'comparison_date': '2026-08-14', 'definition': {'captured_outputs': ['value', 'change_30d_pct'], 'denominator': ['GSPC.INDX'], 'derivation_version': 'dependency_clocks_v2', 'minimum_denominator': 1, 'minimum_numerator': 3, 'numerator': ['CCJ.US', 'LEU.US', 'OKLO.US', 'BWXT.US', 'URNM.US'], 'rebase': True, 'rebase_epoch': '2026-02-02'}, 'first_observed_at': '2026-09-16 06:27:47.752000+00:00', 'inputs': {'comparison': [{'as_of': '2026-08-14', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:1c4ec19adc83587e8de98474eae8d2706fcba9db7f3c64dd8efa28468a1b56f1:429cd9477b880352a0835626d1be62a9800f9cf1bc8272f2ad81201ef05ecd19', 'symbol': 'BWXT.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-08-14', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:84c3384a1cf6621d5ca8fb482d438803d6676fedff7d0b667ddff8826d389675:c1447d5a0983e99b2e6a2b5c2e84ca3ab57880bc7d701c992154a398af2c5f74', 'symbol': 'CCJ.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-08-14', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:f5454482724e207192456f7a236028797a35598ee6931a14f4150b134025cd05:9c2ab7c7da354af15e4a881d8dda5b8cdd2c48fb996e8a2e567adc23e34e15e7', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-08-14', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:429573d8b9e5ca41c9c1add6680fc6d828cffc436c0b6c94003b5caf7778ed0e:2c6c67ecdee66d7613c9a06071733896108ae55d8a967150675c6b9d0a50608f', 'symbol': 'LEU.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-08-14', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:0863e33afe9397d09f71a0219254a9f7c6abc43e4923ea27d3ad58ad44961715:e0e527f236d78780bd3230fe2bbca2337b47be657a5e019562756c8458aca408', 'symbol': 'OKLO.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-08-14', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:4638ab3b43b6d79170959332bcf309b5fd573564257e10a9a46a6db91638fb26:2b0d5d0f33f8c3802bfcc7963d55ebf0b7806faf87e52e73f52b7052bbfe054e', 'symbol': 'URNM.US'}], 'current': [{'as_of': '2026-09-15', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:40241d9026b220c5630d484aae3d6e74ebd133ee36d42340e47c650e9c49b247:a6ca9e8ceee76f13c9365972130c00d7fa54b0f68b711e3825d680304b318560', 'symbol': 'BWXT.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-15', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:0c2a34b23796c9d17645f75d4c0fa466ebf9451de7fb947932643c4377ed8db6:443dd52398541156beb57c1d2b6675f38a3ffb223c5ce0c9de6429eddee6b5be', 'symbol': 'CCJ.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-15', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:4e523ee33c7fef358e16c530069975830ab82dc97b21374ce800462084b418e0:a088c8b912f9b1550aa7d234162f756f1bf38e66a8b357d8b6206c6960df2375', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-15', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:d57058921a23cc5563ab25d24c787dda8e29bfdb5f1a2b593e55b2b43993b3d5:bc6e5e85e4a3ed328ad98b5cff8164b49f8e99a87be6ea2ab0975ffea76f8cc6', 'symbol': 'LEU.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-15', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:82753ff7f446fa530c539f95c93c1bfc2333c67cd85fa66b21064d5d2af08d46:7069bee14627a9c851cd88c7ec072171f14b4d25a3362ebfd2d84eb4acc754de', 'symbol': 'OKLO.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-15', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:510ff7ec870173d7c5acfcb2d7623726dac37f486af82fa5a8ed191d05b347b0:24237341ed754925e998319eff95b351c7803c38db6a98f918d699f82c28c67e', 'symbol': 'URNM.US'}], 'rebase': [{'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:3cfbb38dfbd57c60d69bfa21705de845427a4cca046279edc9ada8a56091f13b:e479d93b56397b0a637027e4f1d120d0547a6259f9cf44159655961c47b22025', 'symbol': 'BWXT.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:67300f42b542ef8430e220c5495c0edf4d17e6cceb1939573cbb94dd0c0a8da0:4fdd910af0c9f1295577d1ebf5a2c8f4a40b575fa0973a13ee684d114a3ebe6c', 'symbol': 'CCJ.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:24d6cc3fd802e900c9aec4f2d6f1c7d219c3b1ac2343bd82f0afcf1a9ebe8ec9:4e2d09918e537df65173169bc4aa2456acf27f164b729b17bc93418e7e4873f6', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:f1a4182dd33837140a1c078a21e9e113541580f17a60fc01e9e79c7607b64a7f:67d6ae2583ac46d6a752c21704d1d8cea3f46d1d3d53156cb047df471150fb24', 'symbol': 'LEU.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:f37cf4be570ed6b975614fc8ada57a0e02e2a79ffa05630b7d6cb96cc70d5daa:9804a4346e4bccd6e98114662ea577fda8bce7b38569879c634cd6e336301771', 'symbol': 'OKLO.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:0fb880f9304f38381163395c0833f292e4a728dc192cd11510399fc9b60680d5:6cd899b986286d406d54342c5b305b4d216f93b61b3f58a64447b9d44f1b63be', 'symbol': 'URNM.US'}]}, 'price_convention': 'adjusted_close_when_present_else_close', 'schema_version': 1, 'source_refs': ['aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:0863e33afe9397d09f71a0219254a9f7c6abc43e4923ea27d3ad58ad44961715:e0e527f236d78780bd3230fe2bbca2337b47be657a5e019562756c8458aca408', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:0c2a34b23796c9d17645f75d4c0fa466ebf9451de7fb947932643c4377ed8db6:443dd52398541156beb57c1d2b6675f38a3ffb223c5ce0c9de6429eddee6b5be', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:0fb880f9304f38381163395c0833f292e4a728dc192cd11510399fc9b60680d5:6cd899b986286d406d54342c5b305b4d216f93b61b3f58a64447b9d44f1b63be', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:1c4ec19adc83587e8de98474eae8d2706fcba9db7f3c64dd8efa28468a1b56f1:429cd9477b880352a0835626d1be62a9800f9cf1bc8272f2ad81201ef05ecd19', 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'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:f37cf4be570ed6b975614fc8ada57a0e02e2a79ffa05630b7d6cb96cc70d5daa:9804a4346e4bccd6e98114662ea577fda8bce7b38569879c634cd6e336301771', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:f5454482724e207192456f7a236028797a35598ee6931a14f4150b134025cd05:9c2ab7c7da354af15e4a881d8dda5b8cdd2c48fb996e8a2e567adc23e34e15e7'], 'transform_version': 'market-series-lineage-2026-09-07-v1'}, 'value': 58.81050139963023}

PJM electricity demand — ▼ Bearish

subject: PJM electricity demand
chart: power_load_pjm
domain: Power
horizon: Near term
legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-15 / 2026-09-16 06:26:11+00:00
interpretation: PJM load is materially below its weekday baseline.
evidence: PJM load anomaly z=-1.353
conflicting evidence: none recorded
What would change this call: The anomaly crosses the opposite pre-registered threshold.
data quality: source records not yet linked; weekday baseline; weather effects not isolated
metrics:

unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': True, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 1.0, 'unit': 'z', 'value': -1.3530529824070596, 'window': 'weekday_baseline'}, 'dc_load_anomaly_z': -1.3530529824070596, 'dc_load_growth_yoy': 1.0420611019297394}

PJM day-ahead vs real-time prices — ⊘ No read

subject: near-term PJM electricity demand
chart: power_da_rt_spread
horizon: Near term
data through: 2026-09-15
why no read: No qualifying data yet.
reasons: day-ahead/real-time price data not yet available
data quality: none

Data-centre power capacity delivery — ⊘ No read

subject: AI data-centre capacity delivery
chart: power_capacity_delivery
horizon: Structural
data through: 2026-09-15
why no read: Capacity filings not yet wired in.
reasons: capacity filings not yet wired in
data quality: data plane not yet built

Colo asking rents — N. Virginia — ▲ Bullish

subject: landlord pricing power in Northern Virginia colocation
chart: colo_asking_rates
domain: Colocation
horizon: Quarterly
legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-03-31 / 2026-06-17 00:00:00+00:00
interpretation: Asking rents at $212.50/kW-month and rising.
evidence: Public page states a $190-$235 range and continued average-rate increase
conflicting evidence: none recorded
What would change this call: The next market report showing the metric moving the other way.
data quality: dated public research; not a continuous feed
metrics:

unparsed: {'direction': 'increased', 'market': 'Northern Virginia', 'metric': 'asking_rent_midpoint_usd_kw_month', 'prior_value': None, 'source_url': 'https://www.cbre.com/insights/reports/global-data-center-trends-2026', 'unit': 'usd_per_kw_month', 'value': 212.5}

Colo capacity delivered — N. Virginia — ▲ Bullish

subject: delivered wholesale colocation capacity in Northern Virginia
chart: colo_capacity_delivery
domain: Colocation
horizon: Quarterly
legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-03-31 / 2026-06-17 00:00:00+00:00
interpretation: 1,136 MW added year over year and rising.
evidence: CBRE public webpage, Q1 2026 delivered inventory increase
conflicting evidence: none recorded
What would change this call: The next market report showing the metric moving the other way.
data quality: dated public research; not a continuous feed
metrics:

unparsed: {'direction': 'increased', 'market': 'Northern Virginia', 'metric': 'inventory_added_yoy_mw', 'prior_value': None, 'source_url': 'https://www.cbre.com/insights/reports/global-data-center-trends-2026', 'unit': 'mw', 'value': 1135.9}

Data-centre landlords vs S&P 500 — ▼ Bearish

subject: listed data-centre landlord pricing relative to the broad market
chart: colo_public_landlords_spx
domain: Colocation
horizon: Near term
legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-15 / 2026-09-16 06:27:47+00:00
interpretation: Down 8.2% over the last 30 days.
evidence: 30-day relative-price change: -8.22%.
conflicting evidence: none recorded
What would change this call: A 30-day move through the opposite 2.0% threshold.
data quality: price action, not fundamentals
metrics:

unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': False, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 2.0, 'unit': '%', 'value': -8.222837244288439, 'window': 'change_30d'}, 'band_pct': 2.0, 'change_30d_pct': -8.222837244288439, 'components': ['DLR.US', 'EQIX.US', 'GSPC.INDX', 'IRM.US'], 'series': 'BASKET_COLO_SPX', 'source_lineage': {'comparison_date': '2026-08-14', 'definition': {'captured_outputs': ['value', 'change_30d_pct'], 'denominator': ['GSPC.INDX'], 'derivation_version': 'dependency_clocks_v2', 'minimum_denominator': 1, 'minimum_numerator': 2, 'numerator': ['DLR.US', 'EQIX.US', 'IRM.US'], 'rebase': True, 'rebase_epoch': '2026-02-02'}, 'first_observed_at': '2026-09-16 06:27:47.752000+00:00', 'inputs': {'comparison': [{'as_of': '2026-08-14', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:ca7849bb0c14508ff5c7c4beaebc490a498e8be06baaed2f100de326721ac1af:bbb7c662ca304ef502b0ac274aead04fd44bf0cb60fd1383d95279f42e593124', 'symbol': 'DLR.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-08-14', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:2bea296d291fbc681b30a410f53b664f7f75a7817c689d2350b2e9acbd6ed599:6d4a5b7656b3e1fe7882799ef0ac60eeb3125b6a8f8403852ded8c7ee2f519c3', 'symbol': 'EQIX.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-08-14', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:f5454482724e207192456f7a236028797a35598ee6931a14f4150b134025cd05:9c2ab7c7da354af15e4a881d8dda5b8cdd2c48fb996e8a2e567adc23e34e15e7', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-08-14', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:4fd13eee339161478c9d7b8a2fd06cfb18a050533f077bfe3085ab7d1176ede8:1e021fa8331175c2024184b71cbab9a9a11410fb61930365bbfcab98b9989382', 'symbol': 'IRM.US'}], 'current': [{'as_of': '2026-09-15', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:9318d475e6193ee07118aa0e858a773a63d677e0cd9afb505fa7a0373ee3f5b0:bbc561884f29fe6cd0b8665a059f775018feef386d4d02715d95e772f23cc590', 'symbol': 'DLR.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-15', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:26097f83889f310b943af9a61a317d26894dfb7a84c2f1c6f18028bd0e176888:a0db6ff0b906bb1eb972af8084cc22444adb028f131715891517a18af49df86f', 'symbol': 'EQIX.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-15', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:4e523ee33c7fef358e16c530069975830ab82dc97b21374ce800462084b418e0:a088c8b912f9b1550aa7d234162f756f1bf38e66a8b357d8b6206c6960df2375', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-15', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:368fe3194c35d6cc1f8602998cca92c61e4ff4ecd5e925f5b64aa2c5c90f1b5c:c7c640a75f54371f5430159bab84086c567f3f4863c9b5998bc274211c7722f8', 'symbol': 'IRM.US'}], 'rebase': [{'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:bd1b2505bab4a1d14980caa2b5c33d026697a998f56cee8ad5dd036ccf5ad352:ac4ef0495a154809afb2530ecfadb90717d537cb754953085c659f11238de178', 'symbol': 'DLR.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:a4f54409f94b3eb7d6180e3805dfcaef2b38952e2eda3fdbdb75fbf70499eeb6:06eded09a5519c167fd93f8c7340d2715d460390634fe1d025c4a04d400f5b4f', 'symbol': 'EQIX.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:24d6cc3fd802e900c9aec4f2d6f1c7d219c3b1ac2343bd82f0afcf1a9ebe8ec9:4e2d09918e537df65173169bc4aa2456acf27f164b729b17bc93418e7e4873f6', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:5949f310b6fcf3a98cd5d3eb7600a56233b06621fd8a14fb6746c1bf9c9b37aa:0e98aaf6a49dbb4acfb6280195ca5f7fba1a45c2fab48fbe17795ee34ee570dd', 'symbol': 'IRM.US'}]}, 'price_convention': 'adjusted_close_when_present_else_close', 'schema_version': 1, 'source_refs': ['aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:24d6cc3fd802e900c9aec4f2d6f1c7d219c3b1ac2343bd82f0afcf1a9ebe8ec9:4e2d09918e537df65173169bc4aa2456acf27f164b729b17bc93418e7e4873f6', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:26097f83889f310b943af9a61a317d26894dfb7a84c2f1c6f18028bd0e176888:a0db6ff0b906bb1eb972af8084cc22444adb028f131715891517a18af49df86f', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:2bea296d291fbc681b30a410f53b664f7f75a7817c689d2350b2e9acbd6ed599:6d4a5b7656b3e1fe7882799ef0ac60eeb3125b6a8f8403852ded8c7ee2f519c3', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:368fe3194c35d6cc1f8602998cca92c61e4ff4ecd5e925f5b64aa2c5c90f1b5c:c7c640a75f54371f5430159bab84086c567f3f4863c9b5998bc274211c7722f8', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:4e523ee33c7fef358e16c530069975830ab82dc97b21374ce800462084b418e0:a088c8b912f9b1550aa7d234162f756f1bf38e66a8b357d8b6206c6960df2375', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:4fd13eee339161478c9d7b8a2fd06cfb18a050533f077bfe3085ab7d1176ede8:1e021fa8331175c2024184b71cbab9a9a11410fb61930365bbfcab98b9989382', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:5949f310b6fcf3a98cd5d3eb7600a56233b06621fd8a14fb6746c1bf9c9b37aa:0e98aaf6a49dbb4acfb6280195ca5f7fba1a45c2fab48fbe17795ee34ee570dd', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:9318d475e6193ee07118aa0e858a773a63d677e0cd9afb505fa7a0373ee3f5b0:bbc561884f29fe6cd0b8665a059f775018feef386d4d02715d95e772f23cc590', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:a4f54409f94b3eb7d6180e3805dfcaef2b38952e2eda3fdbdb75fbf70499eeb6:06eded09a5519c167fd93f8c7340d2715d460390634fe1d025c4a04d400f5b4f', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:bd1b2505bab4a1d14980caa2b5c33d026697a998f56cee8ad5dd036ccf5ad352:ac4ef0495a154809afb2530ecfadb90717d537cb754953085c659f11238de178', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:ca7849bb0c14508ff5c7c4beaebc490a498e8be06baaed2f100de326721ac1af:bbb7c662ca304ef502b0ac274aead04fd44bf0cb60fd1383d95279f42e593124', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:f5454482724e207192456f7a236028797a35598ee6931a14f4150b134025cd05:9c2ab7c7da354af15e4a881d8dda5b8cdd2c48fb996e8a2e567adc23e34e15e7'], 'transform_version': 'market-series-lineage-2026-09-07-v1'}, 'value': 111.21411140177145}

Colo vacancy — N. Virginia — ▲ Bullish

subject: landlord pricing power in Northern Virginia colocation
chart: colo_vacancy
domain: Colocation
horizon: Quarterly
legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-03-31 / 2026-06-17 00:00:00+00:00
interpretation: Vacancy at 0.3% and falling.
evidence: CBRE public webpage, Q1 2026
conflicting evidence: none recorded
What would change this call: The next market report showing the metric moving the other way.
data quality: dated public research; not a continuous feed
metrics:

unparsed: {'direction': 'decreased', 'market': 'Northern Virginia', 'metric': 'vacancy_pct', 'prior_value': 0.8, 'source_url': 'https://www.cbre.com/insights/reports/global-data-center-trends-2026', 'unit': 'pct', 'value': 0.3}

Hyperscalers vs S&P 500 — ▲ Bullish

subject: public-market pricing of the hyperscaler cohort relative to the broad market
chart: exposure_hyperscaler_spx
domain: Company exposure
horizon: Near term
legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-15 / 2026-09-16 06:27:47+00:00
interpretation: Up 2.5% over the last 30 days.
evidence: 30-day relative-price change: 2.55%.
conflicting evidence: none recorded
What would change this call: A 30-day move through the opposite 2.0% threshold.
data quality: correlation, not exposure evidence; price action, not fundamentals
metrics:

unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': False, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 2.0, 'unit': '%', 'value': 2.5496366928878578, 'window': 'change_30d'}, 'band_pct': 2.0, 'change_30d_pct': 2.5496366928878578, 'components': ['AMZN.US', 'GOOGL.US', 'GSPC.INDX', 'META.US', 'MSFT.US', 'ORCL.US'], 'series': 'BASKET_HYPERSCALER_SPX', 'source_lineage': {'comparison_date': '2026-08-14', 'definition': {'captured_outputs': ['value', 'change_30d_pct'], 'denominator': ['GSPC.INDX'], 'derivation_version': 'dependency_clocks_v2', 'minimum_denominator': 1, 'minimum_numerator': 4, 'numerator': ['MSFT.US', 'GOOGL.US', 'AMZN.US', 'META.US', 'ORCL.US'], 'rebase': True, 'rebase_epoch': '2026-02-02'}, 'first_observed_at': '2026-09-16 06:27:47.752000+00:00', 'inputs': {'comparison': [{'as_of': '2026-08-14', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:a3c369270ff82c4429c5bf50037b01dece876a75b145624ac46a9384f76d4712:5c146d3193bc8b484709d87f64f874716f3e0ebe47c6dcf150ef3ff6ae3d41bd', 'symbol': 'AMZN.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-08-14', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:1832a9b3fc73c311328ea3fee577edda891d001d11b14005e367b4af55724de3:39f22003a4d0606d8d3f9d91344d968eee45b822b281992a2e538ad6280d0253', 'symbol': 'GOOGL.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-08-14', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:f5454482724e207192456f7a236028797a35598ee6931a14f4150b134025cd05:9c2ab7c7da354af15e4a881d8dda5b8cdd2c48fb996e8a2e567adc23e34e15e7', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-08-14', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:f7ddcbd29649d79d0f78b21c37beef8c53ed5663b0a5b35ebab40c212279084d:c3d84a405aa5faf5501df3c804ba3f329d9704854b2cd998ce1b7d1e8f7d8a53', 'symbol': 'META.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-08-14', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:09a921fe816286ab64392046732511d0ab6e20a706c1e50164e45c2bd38775c7:27d8b5edcb045c0645bc3d5aef641ece3845ec68e1129446a4714f3ed1e1e495', 'symbol': 'MSFT.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-08-14', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:8c7d2e5979a9802f3a4dc6359086f4d2c628cc1e0c496ee03bfdfbfe2c015835:5d10495c4979e5555363c273dca9d0a742a685002c097dd941ac31dc52c7ec06', 'symbol': 'ORCL.US'}], 'current': [{'as_of': '2026-09-15', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:2b193de27044f7a1edec17509a35ed84dbbe94ac3e38e7acd559d71cabba2603:f6ef0aa7dfb71fc1b6034060c11faa8bd84638f824d3f91cf817f24a9d2d438b', 'symbol': 'AMZN.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-15', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:71311d00e4064c624cecce8e005881fd69a9adba612af30603239d8a1b348f9d:dcf929b00dc2214835e33569e71df9a7ddd8496ffb6d6223d4de712753910b8a', 'symbol': 'GOOGL.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-15', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:4e523ee33c7fef358e16c530069975830ab82dc97b21374ce800462084b418e0:a088c8b912f9b1550aa7d234162f756f1bf38e66a8b357d8b6206c6960df2375', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-15', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:bbd5cebce1bb26cd7e4460b843d71d859c4afa4e1420ea2ae52738dfd4a031e8:9c2bffc8dd1fd611cda33061eeb3b17e8132ead4c492d80c72abcebf1254a759', 'symbol': 'META.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-15', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:95eb9a454315ddb7146bab4dd2323cd189eeee0c2bc4e9c0ac041753fbe9d9dd:ce0ad1c71e80eee2a497a9794929c09829df7a669d763da9db5f8e108e3afc17', 'symbol': 'MSFT.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-15', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:5ce0baf40718136c7f57157f094bcb508e2184973a32222dbe8f2636c94f3cff:c5f69a014867df5f1d8099dce9a650e5255f513e24cba6453479fee44d81addb', 'symbol': 'ORCL.US'}], 'rebase': [{'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:16c78722f31248c612b3c7f6f605f2c3b602784fd6902667f08411a4474bfd1f:49fa8c739cf3270a2bdd6a0d4bd4afb077941b52b28cfef6b8d9aadc731c752d', 'symbol': 'AMZN.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:c6dd35bab12405072e1ee4c809b2582635ede4a2958d339b53c54053bc9b0674:56d3dce0a196295606a9815b44eeff8e9c42364df8b170101ded011ff9168d34', 'symbol': 'GOOGL.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:24d6cc3fd802e900c9aec4f2d6f1c7d219c3b1ac2343bd82f0afcf1a9ebe8ec9:4e2d09918e537df65173169bc4aa2456acf27f164b729b17bc93418e7e4873f6', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:1de3d08e722a20f6bc587adaab48c20640810eb3afb7c3260ac6ab2f9d44f9b6:91913bfd5485a37df17e87c066f865923faa70df53a12458dbc8b84028c4a697', 'symbol': 'META.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:3c257506b79ee926d426367dec17baaa182d4a08736cc1e739db5917b8a6bfc4:74a9db36720a204d7ab59b06413b38f3697bf89503e72707ea7910d557875209', 'symbol': 'MSFT.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:1d18247bb260b4fcfad7f01112ab10b2ed955da47489d1785d2a16f4c43a5921:04073417089b89c39cade3e8344c3dc9f03203e0c459dfee46aea64565774e2c', 'symbol': 'ORCL.US'}]}, 'price_convention': 'adjusted_close_when_present_else_close', 'schema_version': 1, 'source_refs': ['aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:09a921fe816286ab64392046732511d0ab6e20a706c1e50164e45c2bd38775c7:27d8b5edcb045c0645bc3d5aef641ece3845ec68e1129446a4714f3ed1e1e495', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:16c78722f31248c612b3c7f6f605f2c3b602784fd6902667f08411a4474bfd1f:49fa8c739cf3270a2bdd6a0d4bd4afb077941b52b28cfef6b8d9aadc731c752d', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:1832a9b3fc73c311328ea3fee577edda891d001d11b14005e367b4af55724de3:39f22003a4d0606d8d3f9d91344d968eee45b822b281992a2e538ad6280d0253', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:1d18247bb260b4fcfad7f01112ab10b2ed955da47489d1785d2a16f4c43a5921:04073417089b89c39cade3e8344c3dc9f03203e0c459dfee46aea64565774e2c', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:1de3d08e722a20f6bc587adaab48c20640810eb3afb7c3260ac6ab2f9d44f9b6:91913bfd5485a37df17e87c066f865923faa70df53a12458dbc8b84028c4a697', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:24d6cc3fd802e900c9aec4f2d6f1c7d219c3b1ac2343bd82f0afcf1a9ebe8ec9:4e2d09918e537df65173169bc4aa2456acf27f164b729b17bc93418e7e4873f6', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:2b193de27044f7a1edec17509a35ed84dbbe94ac3e38e7acd559d71cabba2603:f6ef0aa7dfb71fc1b6034060c11faa8bd84638f824d3f91cf817f24a9d2d438b', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:3c257506b79ee926d426367dec17baaa182d4a08736cc1e739db5917b8a6bfc4:74a9db36720a204d7ab59b06413b38f3697bf89503e72707ea7910d557875209', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:4e523ee33c7fef358e16c530069975830ab82dc97b21374ce800462084b418e0:a088c8b912f9b1550aa7d234162f756f1bf38e66a8b357d8b6206c6960df2375', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:5ce0baf40718136c7f57157f094bcb508e2184973a32222dbe8f2636c94f3cff:c5f69a014867df5f1d8099dce9a650e5255f513e24cba6453479fee44d81addb', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:71311d00e4064c624cecce8e005881fd69a9adba612af30603239d8a1b348f9d:dcf929b00dc2214835e33569e71df9a7ddd8496ffb6d6223d4de712753910b8a', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:8c7d2e5979a9802f3a4dc6359086f4d2c628cc1e0c496ee03bfdfbfe2c015835:5d10495c4979e5555363c273dca9d0a742a685002c097dd941ac31dc52c7ec06', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:95eb9a454315ddb7146bab4dd2323cd189eeee0c2bc4e9c0ac041753fbe9d9dd:ce0ad1c71e80eee2a497a9794929c09829df7a669d763da9db5f8e108e3afc17', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:a3c369270ff82c4429c5bf50037b01dece876a75b145624ac46a9384f76d4712:5c146d3193bc8b484709d87f64f874716f3e0ebe47c6dcf150ef3ff6ae3d41bd', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:bbd5cebce1bb26cd7e4460b843d71d859c4afa4e1420ea2ae52738dfd4a031e8:9c2bffc8dd1fd611cda33061eeb3b17e8132ead4c492d80c72abcebf1254a759', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:c6dd35bab12405072e1ee4c809b2582635ede4a2958d339b53c54053bc9b0674:56d3dce0a196295606a9815b44eeff8e9c42364df8b170101ded011ff9168d34', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:f5454482724e207192456f7a236028797a35598ee6931a14f4150b134025cd05:9c2ab7c7da354af15e4a881d8dda5b8cdd2c48fb996e8a2e567adc23e34e15e7', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:f7ddcbd29649d79d0f78b21c37beef8c53ed5663b0a5b35ebab40c212279084d:c3d84a405aa5faf5501df3c804ba3f329d9704854b2cd998ce1b7d1e8f7d8a53'], 'transform_version': 'market-series-lineage-2026-09-07-v1'}, 'value': 92.71162845216861}

Neoclouds vs S&P 500 — ▼ Bearish

subject: public-market pricing of the neocloud cohort relative to the broad market
chart: exposure_neocloud_spx
domain: Company exposure
horizon: Near term
legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-15 / 2026-09-16 06:27:47+00:00
interpretation: Down 20.1% over the last 30 days.
evidence: 30-day relative-price change: -20.08%.
conflicting evidence: none recorded
What would change this call: A 30-day move through the opposite 2.0% threshold.
data quality: correlation, not exposure evidence; price action, not fundamentals
metrics:

unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': False, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 2.0, 'unit': '%', 'value': -20.08400389527415, 'window': 'change_30d'}, 'band_pct': 2.0, 'change_30d_pct': -20.08400389527415, 'components': ['APLD.US', 'CRWV.US', 'GSPC.INDX', 'IREN.US', 'NBIS.US'], 'series': 'BASKET_NEOCLOUD_SPX', 'source_lineage': {'comparison_date': '2026-08-14', 'definition': {'captured_outputs': ['value', 'change_30d_pct'], 'denominator': ['GSPC.INDX'], 'derivation_version': 'dependency_clocks_v2', 'minimum_denominator': 1, 'minimum_numerator': 3, 'numerator': ['CRWV.US', 'NBIS.US', 'IREN.US', 'APLD.US'], 'rebase': True, 'rebase_epoch': '2026-02-02'}, 'first_observed_at': '2026-09-16 06:27:47.752000+00:00', 'inputs': {'comparison': [{'as_of': '2026-08-14', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:8723337291fc8e7a318055a40b79a637b73f2bdfdefa1c8748c9050205f3d456:5b61c06973dfc9335caa7402fd680ded7df42fa4cbc7d3701231c08c0df05930', 'symbol': 'APLD.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-08-14', 'reference': 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AI power names vs S&P 500 — ▼ Bearish

subject: public-market pricing of the AI-power cohort relative to the broad market
chart: exposure_power_spx
domain: Company exposure
horizon: Near term
legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-15 / 2026-09-16 06:27:47+00:00
interpretation: Down 10.5% over the last 30 days.
evidence: 30-day relative-price change: -10.48%.
conflicting evidence: none recorded
What would change this call: A 30-day move through the opposite 2.0% threshold.
data quality: correlation, not exposure evidence; price action, not fundamentals
metrics:

unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': False, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 2.0, 'unit': '%', 'value': -10.480503749171799, 'window': 'change_30d'}, 'band_pct': 2.0, 'change_30d_pct': -10.480503749171799, 'components': ['CEG.US', 'ETN.US', 'GEV.US', 'GSPC.INDX', 'PWR.US', 'TLN.US', 'VST.US'], 'series': 'BASKET_POWER_SPX', 'source_lineage': {'comparison_date': '2026-08-14', 'definition': {'captured_outputs': ['value', 'change_30d_pct'], 'denominator': ['GSPC.INDX'], 'derivation_version': 'dependency_clocks_v2', 'minimum_denominator': 1, 'minimum_numerator': 4, 'numerator': ['VST.US', 'CEG.US', 'TLN.US', 'GEV.US', 'ETN.US', 'PWR.US'], 'rebase': True, 'rebase_epoch': '2026-02-02'}, 'first_observed_at': '2026-09-16 06:27:47.752000+00:00', 'inputs': {'comparison': [{'as_of': '2026-08-14', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:d17d2c825ff46cd082dee6d282f913f3db1b299a9566353800542c075b6f03f4:830ac7a2e36346ecfa7944913595521fd1a1a770b905b5eb85a26776f2dd9b00', 'symbol': 'CEG.US'}, {'as_of': 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'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:d17d2c825ff46cd082dee6d282f913f3db1b299a9566353800542c075b6f03f4:830ac7a2e36346ecfa7944913595521fd1a1a770b905b5eb85a26776f2dd9b00', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:f5454482724e207192456f7a236028797a35598ee6931a14f4150b134025cd05:9c2ab7c7da354af15e4a881d8dda5b8cdd2c48fb996e8a2e567adc23e34e15e7', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:fc6b91c511aecf27ec9d1dc2093c909fce36b898bcce444a1e3ec1d5521ad09a:cc82e1c8054db37f79437f9d42372cdaea0b705efaadd1f96314e45fdf259ed7'], 'transform_version': 'market-series-lineage-2026-09-07-v1'}, 'value': 96.06464105811592}

Semiconductors vs S&P 500 — ▼ Bearish

subject: semiconductor equity leadership relative to the broad US market
chart: capital_sox_spx
domain: Capital markets
horizon: Near term
legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-15 / 2026-09-16 06:27:47+00:00
interpretation: Down 7.6% over the last 30 days.
evidence: 30-day relative-price change: -7.63%.
conflicting evidence: none recorded
What would change this call: A 30-day move through the opposite 2.0% threshold.
data quality: price action, not fundamentals
metrics:

unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': False, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 2.0, 'unit': '%', 'value': -7.625044828209604, 'window': 'change_30d'}, 'band_pct': 2.0, 'change_30d_pct': -7.625044828209604, 'components': ['GSPC.INDX', 'SOX.INDX'], 'series': 'RATIO_SOX_SPX', 'source_lineage': {'comparison_date': '2026-08-14', 'definition': {'captured_outputs': ['value', 'change_30d_pct'], 'denominator': ['GSPC.INDX'], 'derivation_version': 'dependency_clocks_v2', 'minimum_denominator': 1, 'minimum_numerator': 1, 'numerator': ['SOX.INDX'], 'rebase': True, 'rebase_epoch': '2026-02-02'}, 'first_observed_at': '2026-09-16 06:27:47.752000+00:00', 'inputs': {'comparison': [{'as_of': '2026-08-14', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:f5454482724e207192456f7a236028797a35598ee6931a14f4150b134025cd05:9c2ab7c7da354af15e4a881d8dda5b8cdd2c48fb996e8a2e567adc23e34e15e7', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-08-14', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:a322f4c3ee02bc57950ce272d36d6051b3cf8428e4be44cb72fc57271f5f41db:42f065927e032777af072dbce250b2228c5d6e7d3bddf923e0be13c2f439bed5', 'symbol': 'SOX.INDX'}], 'current': [{'as_of': '2026-09-15', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:4e523ee33c7fef358e16c530069975830ab82dc97b21374ce800462084b418e0:a088c8b912f9b1550aa7d234162f756f1bf38e66a8b357d8b6206c6960df2375', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-15', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:dfc8d112b21e1f84e217c787b318e5c7de03a7396efa6956190ea90c4a97b442:8edde558d714588e900ffec110fa055e8d98b361f60b18479e58d3657739e825', 'symbol': 'SOX.INDX'}], 'rebase': [{'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:24d6cc3fd802e900c9aec4f2d6f1c7d219c3b1ac2343bd82f0afcf1a9ebe8ec9:4e2d09918e537df65173169bc4aa2456acf27f164b729b17bc93418e7e4873f6', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:9e21494c0d9216cc88d47bf9daa6d6d9ae7ec805a1faca727f2c85c671eb5ea9:f59477aecb4eb8af675ae210e88501832f6289d153f1cad72d0376cc97a8fc1b', 'symbol': 'SOX.INDX'}]}, 'price_convention': 'adjusted_close_when_present_else_close', 'schema_version': 1, 'source_refs': ['aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:24d6cc3fd802e900c9aec4f2d6f1c7d219c3b1ac2343bd82f0afcf1a9ebe8ec9:4e2d09918e537df65173169bc4aa2456acf27f164b729b17bc93418e7e4873f6', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:4e523ee33c7fef358e16c530069975830ab82dc97b21374ce800462084b418e0:a088c8b912f9b1550aa7d234162f756f1bf38e66a8b357d8b6206c6960df2375', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:9e21494c0d9216cc88d47bf9daa6d6d9ae7ec805a1faca727f2c85c671eb5ea9:f59477aecb4eb8af675ae210e88501832f6289d153f1cad72d0376cc97a8fc1b', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:a322f4c3ee02bc57950ce272d36d6051b3cf8428e4be44cb72fc57271f5f41db:42f065927e032777af072dbce250b2228c5d6e7d3bddf923e0be13c2f439bed5', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:dfc8d112b21e1f84e217c787b318e5c7de03a7396efa6956190ea90c4a97b442:8edde558d714588e900ffec110fa055e8d98b361f60b18479e58d3657739e825', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:f5454482724e207192456f7a236028797a35598ee6931a14f4150b134025cd05:9c2ab7c7da354af15e4a881d8dda5b8cdd2c48fb996e8a2e567adc23e34e15e7'], 'transform_version': 'market-series-lineage-2026-09-07-v1'}, 'value': 126.34993837304746}

CLO BBB vs AAA tranches — ◆ Mixed

subject: marginal risk appetite in the AI buildout's securitized-debt channel
chart: capital_jbbb_jaaa
domain: Capital markets
horizon: Near term
legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-15 / 2026-09-16 06:27:47+00:00
interpretation: Up 0.0% over the last 30 days.
evidence: 30-day relative-price change: 0.04%.
conflicting evidence: none recorded
What would change this call: A 30-day move through the opposite 1.0% threshold.
data quality: price action, not fundamentals
metrics:

unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': False, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 1.0, 'unit': '%', 'value': 0.03700225217593278, 'window': 'change_30d'}, 'band_pct': 1.0, 'change_30d_pct': 0.03700225217593278, 'components': ['JAAA.US', 'JBBB.US'], 'series': 'RATIO_JBBB_JAAA', 'source_lineage': {'comparison_date': '2026-08-14', 'definition': {'captured_outputs': ['value', 'change_30d_pct'], 'denominator': ['JAAA.US'], 'derivation_version': 'dependency_clocks_v2', 'minimum_denominator': 1, 'minimum_numerator': 1, 'numerator': ['JBBB.US'], 'rebase': True, 'rebase_epoch': '2026-02-02'}, 'first_observed_at': '2026-09-16 06:27:47.752000+00:00', 'inputs': {'comparison': [{'as_of': '2026-08-14', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:9598d76fe3835814c9e62dc1547619b4842e1d58b9b734fc70f1cc53a21eb780:fce70a86473f259793ec2d175638d0eb22c23b65072e6e5e1dd1f03490dc5756', 'symbol': 'JAAA.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-08-14', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:8895f0b170f4107154ea46ada5f2da9db26840a3ec692f67a89f8dc1b01afb93:ee540fcdebf3767c6a229b9bae7099795615d41695b9815874a520665f18b4d6', 'symbol': 'JBBB.US'}], 'current': [{'as_of': '2026-09-15', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:4bfeab3132bc9b792cd48fb8e67667e02f3e29d5d3a61bf821bb016857b8befa:8e81a7233756f3918417c14cdbff466b81ac9bb327675f131e811f07eaf6340f', 'symbol': 'JAAA.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-15', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:5498943c71b928747d17b63e1b055dec02ce0a5f62dda082bd3da8d3ac724914:07b09d86ad52b9f93547d59f03afe11085159f18e523a15b8a419aa7725b5468', 'symbol': 'JBBB.US'}], 'rebase': [{'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:2e15f309b66c47214d26f11d6b748b73129d7908e06f0c45f600a63cd8fda3a8:dfa44f7491c7ce008bad37a24f1a4500e67718cb1468f0b050ac5ad7900a81c9', 'symbol': 'JAAA.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:2c66b1ee4c0ac66ada787b1ba99b8717a1443125beb6df11204f99f0a9088ff8:0f3c3f7854cd2e807bf206366349b02d071bdb52c5e3308bd6208d6c54528685', 'symbol': 'JBBB.US'}]}, 'price_convention': 'adjusted_close_when_present_else_close', 'schema_version': 1, 'source_refs': ['aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:2c66b1ee4c0ac66ada787b1ba99b8717a1443125beb6df11204f99f0a9088ff8:0f3c3f7854cd2e807bf206366349b02d071bdb52c5e3308bd6208d6c54528685', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:2e15f309b66c47214d26f11d6b748b73129d7908e06f0c45f600a63cd8fda3a8:dfa44f7491c7ce008bad37a24f1a4500e67718cb1468f0b050ac5ad7900a81c9', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:4bfeab3132bc9b792cd48fb8e67667e02f3e29d5d3a61bf821bb016857b8befa:8e81a7233756f3918417c14cdbff466b81ac9bb327675f131e811f07eaf6340f', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:5498943c71b928747d17b63e1b055dec02ce0a5f62dda082bd3da8d3ac724914:07b09d86ad52b9f93547d59f03afe11085159f18e523a15b8a419aa7725b5468', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:8895f0b170f4107154ea46ada5f2da9db26840a3ec692f67a89f8dc1b01afb93:ee540fcdebf3767c6a229b9bae7099795615d41695b9815874a520665f18b4d6', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:9598d76fe3835814c9e62dc1547619b4842e1d58b9b734fc70f1cc53a21eb780:fce70a86473f259793ec2d175638d0eb22c23b65072e6e5e1dd1f03490dc5756'], 'transform_version': 'market-series-lineage-2026-09-07-v1'}, 'value': 99.30598474695252}

AI-complex correlation regime — ◆ Mixed

subject: single-narrative fragility of the US-listed AI-buildout complex
chart: capital_correlation_regime
domain: Capital markets
horizon: Medium term
legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-15 / 2026-09-16 06:27:47+00:00
interpretation: Median pairwise correlation is inside its registered 20th-80th percentile range.
evidence: 63-day median pairwise correlation: 0.235.; Two-year own-history percentile: 34.4.
conflicting evidence: none recorded
What would change this call: The 63-day median pairwise correlation's two-year percentile crosses the opposite registered 20th/80th threshold.
data quality: price action, not fundamentals; source records not yet linked; US-listed cohort only
metrics:

unparsed: {'corr_percentile_2y': 34.35448577680525, 'high_percentile_threshold': 80.0, 'low_percentile_threshold': 20.0, 'median_pairwise_corr_63d': 0.23480830170721162, 'pair_count': 17391, 'symbol_count': 187}

High-yield vs investment-grade credit — ◆ Mixed

subject: public-credit risk appetite relevant to AI-buildout financing
chart: capital_hyg_lqd
domain: Capital markets
horizon: Near term
legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-15 / 2026-09-16 06:27:47+00:00
interpretation: Up 0.2% over the last 30 days.
evidence: 30-day relative-price change: 0.19%.
conflicting evidence: none recorded
What would change this call: A 30-day move through the opposite 1.0% threshold.
data quality: price action, not fundamentals
metrics:

unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': False, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 1.0, 'unit': '%', 'value': 0.19464013105241484, 'window': 'change_30d'}, 'band_pct': 1.0, 'change_30d_pct': 0.19464013105241484, 'components': ['HYG.US', 'LQD.US'], 'series': 'RATIO_HYG_LQD', 'source_lineage': {'comparison_date': '2026-08-14', 'definition': {'captured_outputs': ['value', 'change_30d_pct'], 'denominator': ['LQD.US'], 'derivation_version': 'dependency_clocks_v2', 'minimum_denominator': 1, 'minimum_numerator': 1, 'numerator': ['HYG.US'], 'rebase': True, 'rebase_epoch': '2026-02-02'}, 'first_observed_at': '2026-09-16 06:27:47.752000+00:00', 'inputs': {'comparison': [{'as_of': '2026-08-14', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:905c5afd099ea80149dc72d89613632891294155408b6776779fcf66ca6782ed:1b978c6ac1a1c44bebf37c9994b64d798b0809fdabfc1305e145dd96c338f6f8', 'symbol': 'HYG.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-08-14', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:8408697caf1c2c3ebf9662aa279b14c3952542f15f75e5982070a191bb3398fd:76aee55ab98a00227b2b8113e9e5b943d5572dff7b10a0be9a875e9cde66c91f', 'symbol': 'LQD.US'}], 'current': [{'as_of': '2026-09-15', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:f2a761db38f449a5538c4767b8a950f850162a9eb3479e0b8d852a7740b36f1b:161ef463b0f3521045ca6573cee89c0ca633de814c5caa3ad4f0da05763f4553', 'symbol': 'HYG.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-15', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:869bfb6097e552efc1087b6323aac38dd028de1a4c442ffca2c60b16ceef2779:95a785a776afb7d9dfcbbf73b61822db26152785c4cd5e4891dabb6f0a6f1dd1', 'symbol': 'LQD.US'}], 'rebase': [{'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:6e346584f09679db57f37d39cc10874bfbd07a804b8ffe020d276e6e1b77a169:0c2630e2d0fcb9f5991d51a09a4a84378294a4a632d5453c8f26339cb5f6023a', 'symbol': 'HYG.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:0a3b24d21584e6fbca681b743e988893b825186b4045fce1fe649b2f5c4a58ec:6d922cdc4d1caecd2c4e9403d176ecaceaf148436acb29b26d83085d2ab19a78', 'symbol': 'LQD.US'}]}, 'price_convention': 'adjusted_close_when_present_else_close', 'schema_version': 1, 'source_refs': ['aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:0a3b24d21584e6fbca681b743e988893b825186b4045fce1fe649b2f5c4a58ec:6d922cdc4d1caecd2c4e9403d176ecaceaf148436acb29b26d83085d2ab19a78', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:6e346584f09679db57f37d39cc10874bfbd07a804b8ffe020d276e6e1b77a169:0c2630e2d0fcb9f5991d51a09a4a84378294a4a632d5453c8f26339cb5f6023a', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:8408697caf1c2c3ebf9662aa279b14c3952542f15f75e5982070a191bb3398fd:76aee55ab98a00227b2b8113e9e5b943d5572dff7b10a0be9a875e9cde66c91f', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:869bfb6097e552efc1087b6323aac38dd028de1a4c442ffca2c60b16ceef2779:95a785a776afb7d9dfcbbf73b61822db26152785c4cd5e4891dabb6f0a6f1dd1', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:905c5afd099ea80149dc72d89613632891294155408b6776779fcf66ca6782ed:1b978c6ac1a1c44bebf37c9994b64d798b0809fdabfc1305e145dd96c338f6f8', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:f2a761db38f449a5538c4767b8a950f850162a9eb3479e0b8d852a7740b36f1b:161ef463b0f3521045ca6573cee89c0ca633de814c5caa3ad4f0da05763f4553'], 'transform_version': 'market-series-lineage-2026-09-07-v1'}, 'value': 103.0843808173044}

Equal-weight vs cap-weight S&P — ▼ Bearish

subject: US equity breadth relative to capitalization-weighted equities
chart: capital_rsp_spx
domain: Capital markets
horizon: Near term
legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-15 / 2026-09-16 06:27:47+00:00
interpretation: Down 1.4% over the last 30 days.
evidence: 30-day relative-price change: -1.42%.
conflicting evidence: none recorded
What would change this call: A 30-day move through the opposite 1.0% threshold.
data quality: price action, not fundamentals
metrics:

unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': False, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 1.0, 'unit': '%', 'value': -1.4220801190787946, 'window': 'change_30d'}, 'band_pct': 1.0, 'change_30d_pct': -1.4220801190787946, 'components': ['GSPC.INDX', 'RSP.US'], 'series': 'RATIO_RSP_SPX', 'source_lineage': {'comparison_date': '2026-08-14', 'definition': {'captured_outputs': ['value', 'change_30d_pct'], 'denominator': ['GSPC.INDX'], 'derivation_version': 'dependency_clocks_v2', 'minimum_denominator': 1, 'minimum_numerator': 1, 'numerator': ['RSP.US'], 'rebase': True, 'rebase_epoch': '2026-02-02'}, 'first_observed_at': '2026-09-16 06:27:47.752000+00:00', 'inputs': {'comparison': [{'as_of': '2026-08-14', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:f5454482724e207192456f7a236028797a35598ee6931a14f4150b134025cd05:9c2ab7c7da354af15e4a881d8dda5b8cdd2c48fb996e8a2e567adc23e34e15e7', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-08-14', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:28c8edef2c9e9ca22412dbce0ceb67fe1b5796c3eec778ea8b3bba6e7085cd94:6d52909583ee9de6de690f1e1fbf09ba63a36cd04ac6cb62e356e3798c2a4cea', 'symbol': 'RSP.US'}], 'current': [{'as_of': '2026-09-15', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:4e523ee33c7fef358e16c530069975830ab82dc97b21374ce800462084b418e0:a088c8b912f9b1550aa7d234162f756f1bf38e66a8b357d8b6206c6960df2375', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-15', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:8e7a8c7e264675e8a518d6d00cb86775412b430f515ed69916b29874c25cd615:bc9278f0042f18f29f39b2328594c7c585d3ead579a96a41c92e42392c076d00', 'symbol': 'RSP.US'}], 'rebase': [{'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:24d6cc3fd802e900c9aec4f2d6f1c7d219c3b1ac2343bd82f0afcf1a9ebe8ec9:4e2d09918e537df65173169bc4aa2456acf27f164b729b17bc93418e7e4873f6', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:32a33e04daf4ec7d15af33db4f9763a417be031480323130da802017887e4137:ac5a2375b3ac1f2d27778cb73903addba59f958dbd17490a5a3121a158deea19', 'symbol': 'RSP.US'}]}, 'price_convention': 'adjusted_close_when_present_else_close', 'schema_version': 1, 'source_refs': ['aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:24d6cc3fd802e900c9aec4f2d6f1c7d219c3b1ac2343bd82f0afcf1a9ebe8ec9:4e2d09918e537df65173169bc4aa2456acf27f164b729b17bc93418e7e4873f6', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:28c8edef2c9e9ca22412dbce0ceb67fe1b5796c3eec778ea8b3bba6e7085cd94:6d52909583ee9de6de690f1e1fbf09ba63a36cd04ac6cb62e356e3798c2a4cea', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:32a33e04daf4ec7d15af33db4f9763a417be031480323130da802017887e4137:ac5a2375b3ac1f2d27778cb73903addba59f958dbd17490a5a3121a158deea19', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:4e523ee33c7fef358e16c530069975830ab82dc97b21374ce800462084b418e0:a088c8b912f9b1550aa7d234162f756f1bf38e66a8b357d8b6206c6960df2375', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:8e7a8c7e264675e8a518d6d00cb86775412b430f515ed69916b29874c25cd615:bc9278f0042f18f29f39b2328594c7c585d3ead579a96a41c92e42392c076d00', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:f5454482724e207192456f7a236028797a35598ee6931a14f4150b134025cd05:9c2ab7c7da354af15e4a881d8dda5b8cdd2c48fb996e8a2e567adc23e34e15e7'], 'transform_version': 'market-series-lineage-2026-09-07-v1'}, 'value': 99.64023233330786}

Nasdaq 100 vs S&P 500 — ▼ Bearish

subject: mega-cap concentration in US equities
chart: capital_ndx_spx
domain: Capital markets
horizon: Near term
legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-15 / 2026-09-16 06:27:47+00:00
interpretation: Down 1.1% over the last 30 days.
evidence: 30-day relative-price change: -1.15%.
conflicting evidence: none recorded
What would change this call: A 30-day move through the opposite 1.0% threshold.
data quality: price action, not fundamentals
metrics:

unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': False, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 1.0, 'unit': '%', 'value': -1.1489746992902172, 'window': 'change_30d'}, 'band_pct': 1.0, 'change_30d_pct': -1.1489746992902172, 'components': ['GSPC.INDX', 'NDX.INDX'], 'series': 'RATIO_NDX_SPX', 'source_lineage': {'comparison_date': '2026-08-14', 'definition': {'captured_outputs': ['value', 'change_30d_pct'], 'denominator': ['GSPC.INDX'], 'derivation_version': 'dependency_clocks_v2', 'minimum_denominator': 1, 'minimum_numerator': 1, 'numerator': ['NDX.INDX'], 'rebase': True, 'rebase_epoch': '2026-02-02'}, 'first_observed_at': '2026-09-16 06:27:47.752000+00:00', 'inputs': {'comparison': [{'as_of': '2026-08-14', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:f5454482724e207192456f7a236028797a35598ee6931a14f4150b134025cd05:9c2ab7c7da354af15e4a881d8dda5b8cdd2c48fb996e8a2e567adc23e34e15e7', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-08-14', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:fdca157cf28d7eaddc67d2b4714f055415d3db582c221707eccb69089998f2f5:560bfb55dbc4b71bf30fa8bbac35bf4fcac3aae6afde27fcae6644c6a98f2d3b', 'symbol': 'NDX.INDX'}], 'current': [{'as_of': '2026-09-15', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:4e523ee33c7fef358e16c530069975830ab82dc97b21374ce800462084b418e0:a088c8b912f9b1550aa7d234162f756f1bf38e66a8b357d8b6206c6960df2375', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-15', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:9a933c536dd308dd9b256ede70d73145128539bd03a260ad483a8f9aa30e811c:4dd454200a6af81ea8c4f7784a660927f1a91dec2f6c57ab67ad5c97e34308f8', 'symbol': 'NDX.INDX'}], 'rebase': [{'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:24d6cc3fd802e900c9aec4f2d6f1c7d219c3b1ac2343bd82f0afcf1a9ebe8ec9:4e2d09918e537df65173169bc4aa2456acf27f164b729b17bc93418e7e4873f6', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:74ab11f549c57b87153f1adc16af098513c671888fcb759cd001e4703d4cf832:a7916013b8d94028a874e67a5306b5f972482230fa1d54e3efc06c980af442b1', 'symbol': 'NDX.INDX'}]}, 'price_convention': 'adjusted_close_when_present_else_close', 'schema_version': 1, 'source_refs': ['aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:24d6cc3fd802e900c9aec4f2d6f1c7d219c3b1ac2343bd82f0afcf1a9ebe8ec9:4e2d09918e537df65173169bc4aa2456acf27f164b729b17bc93418e7e4873f6', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:4e523ee33c7fef358e16c530069975830ab82dc97b21374ce800462084b418e0:a088c8b912f9b1550aa7d234162f756f1bf38e66a8b357d8b6206c6960df2375', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:74ab11f549c57b87153f1adc16af098513c671888fcb759cd001e4703d4cf832:a7916013b8d94028a874e67a5306b5f972482230fa1d54e3efc06c980af442b1', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:9a933c536dd308dd9b256ede70d73145128539bd03a260ad483a8f9aa30e811c:4dd454200a6af81ea8c4f7784a660927f1a91dec2f6c57ab67ad5c97e34308f8', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:f5454482724e207192456f7a236028797a35598ee6931a14f4150b134025cd05:9c2ab7c7da354af15e4a881d8dda5b8cdd2c48fb996e8a2e567adc23e34e15e7', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:fdca157cf28d7eaddc67d2b4714f055415d3db582c221707eccb69089998f2f5:560bfb55dbc4b71bf30fa8bbac35bf4fcac3aae6afde27fcae6644c6a98f2d3b'], 'transform_version': 'market-series-lineage-2026-09-07-v1'}, 'value': 103.3992777866059}

Utilities vs S&P 500 — ▼ Bearish

subject: utilities repricing relative to the broad market
chart: capital_xlu_spx
domain: Capital markets
horizon: Near term
legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-15 / 2026-09-16 06:27:47+00:00
interpretation: Down 4.3% over the last 30 days.
evidence: 30-day relative-price change: -4.29%.
conflicting evidence: none recorded
What would change this call: A 30-day move through the opposite 1.5% threshold.
data quality: price action, not fundamentals
metrics:

unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': False, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 1.5, 'unit': '%', 'value': -4.288895454467879, 'window': 'change_30d'}, 'band_pct': 1.5, 'change_30d_pct': -4.288895454467879, 'components': ['GSPC.INDX', 'XLU.US'], 'series': 'RATIO_XLU_SPX', 'source_lineage': {'comparison_date': '2026-08-14', 'definition': {'captured_outputs': ['value', 'change_30d_pct'], 'denominator': ['GSPC.INDX'], 'derivation_version': 'dependency_clocks_v2', 'minimum_denominator': 1, 'minimum_numerator': 1, 'numerator': ['XLU.US'], 'rebase': True, 'rebase_epoch': '2026-02-02'}, 'first_observed_at': '2026-09-16 06:27:47.752000+00:00', 'inputs': {'comparison': [{'as_of': '2026-08-14', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:f5454482724e207192456f7a236028797a35598ee6931a14f4150b134025cd05:9c2ab7c7da354af15e4a881d8dda5b8cdd2c48fb996e8a2e567adc23e34e15e7', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-08-14', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:fd0b2ff995cca4b6ffdfcdd09eef46ff2f437ffb11390aa8b35974db1228533f:3d8b02872ac96f75f5a7704d1876ae16115dd38aee00ddabe599f8795dc875fc', 'symbol': 'XLU.US'}], 'current': [{'as_of': '2026-09-15', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:4e523ee33c7fef358e16c530069975830ab82dc97b21374ce800462084b418e0:a088c8b912f9b1550aa7d234162f756f1bf38e66a8b357d8b6206c6960df2375', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-15', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:e679a955e08883df3f65ab3c4a5f5a3d169055d90369d61cef83bff4feb419af:1d7f43f60f07295ea1e61d1e03a2121bc3deae4a7befac8f08a6bf3b1843cb64', 'symbol': 'XLU.US'}], 'rebase': [{'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:24d6cc3fd802e900c9aec4f2d6f1c7d219c3b1ac2343bd82f0afcf1a9ebe8ec9:4e2d09918e537df65173169bc4aa2456acf27f164b729b17bc93418e7e4873f6', 'symbol': 'GSPC.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:cf6682e490cc8d57489ad055401b01d1e4552272f898b6199dc4b3f5f8035899:94b9a95003bfe2359b13fdbb6fb104e708584a7c7e4bce0a0e03d754a90a7103', 'symbol': 'XLU.US'}]}, 'price_convention': 'adjusted_close_when_present_else_close', 'schema_version': 1, 'source_refs': ['aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:24d6cc3fd802e900c9aec4f2d6f1c7d219c3b1ac2343bd82f0afcf1a9ebe8ec9:4e2d09918e537df65173169bc4aa2456acf27f164b729b17bc93418e7e4873f6', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:4e523ee33c7fef358e16c530069975830ab82dc97b21374ce800462084b418e0:a088c8b912f9b1550aa7d234162f756f1bf38e66a8b357d8b6206c6960df2375', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:cf6682e490cc8d57489ad055401b01d1e4552272f898b6199dc4b3f5f8035899:94b9a95003bfe2359b13fdbb6fb104e708584a7c7e4bce0a0e03d754a90a7103', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:e679a955e08883df3f65ab3c4a5f5a3d169055d90369d61cef83bff4feb419af:1d7f43f60f07295ea1e61d1e03a2121bc3deae4a7befac8f08a6bf3b1843cb64', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:f5454482724e207192456f7a236028797a35598ee6931a14f4150b134025cd05:9c2ab7c7da354af15e4a881d8dda5b8cdd2c48fb996e8a2e567adc23e34e15e7', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:fd0b2ff995cca4b6ffdfcdd09eef46ff2f437ffb11390aa8b35974db1228533f:3d8b02872ac96f75f5a7704d1876ae16115dd38aee00ddabe599f8795dc875fc'], 'transform_version': 'market-series-lineage-2026-09-07-v1'}, 'value': 90.35996499994495}

VIX term structure — ▲ Bullish

subject: near-term public-market risk appetite
chart: capital_vix_term
domain: Capital markets
horizon: Near term
legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-15 / 2026-09-16 06:27:47+00:00
interpretation: Front VIX at 0.89× the 3-month tenor.
evidence: VIX/VIX3M: 0.888.
conflicting evidence: none recorded
What would change this call: The VIX term structure crossing the opposite 0.95/1.05 threshold.
data quality: price action, not fundamentals
metrics:

unparsed: {'source_lineage': {'comparison_date': '2026-08-14', 'definition': {'captured_outputs': ['value', 'change_30d_pct'], 'denominator': ['VIX3M.INDX'], 'derivation_version': 'dependency_clocks_v2', 'minimum_denominator': 1, 'minimum_numerator': 1, 'numerator': ['VIX.INDX'], 'rebase': False, 'rebase_epoch': None}, 'first_observed_at': '2026-09-16 06:27:47.752000+00:00', 'inputs': {'comparison': [{'as_of': '2026-08-14', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:e503fb8d17f42316d387b15b7bed006223c570c037bab36a9528c260a01006dc:b9e99c9a349165915263a8e41f1ca0b7e06a9c5ef2b2f3d33ca87eb0c4a49bd2', 'symbol': 'VIX.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-08-14', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:6ee975cf28c1a15f154356705335b8061792c58f5c7caba6fc6a80985eb6b1be:bdb97c288ccacd5278bcbc8c1c1d710cf384bc85ee6c037eb314b3b93f630ae3', 'symbol': 'VIX3M.INDX'}], 'current': [{'as_of': '2026-09-15', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:096d554afda54a275b71c004a4298026813e307eabe68265ef78bbb86735fef3:f380c40273686e6c633556114da317bed3f0a29f35cc87c7046535d2796ceca2', 'symbol': 'VIX.INDX'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-15', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:db62ab0a17bf5d741556de247155cb6df9ea5689f3f6bb5e030e337d4b65710c:6c4717aab3b8c57d6165b750829306010b9ffcb8e643b638a9a47383d5fdd7a2', 'symbol': 'VIX3M.INDX'}], 'rebase': []}, 'price_convention': 'adjusted_close_when_present_else_close', 'schema_version': 1, 'source_refs': ['aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:096d554afda54a275b71c004a4298026813e307eabe68265ef78bbb86735fef3:f380c40273686e6c633556114da317bed3f0a29f35cc87c7046535d2796ceca2', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:6ee975cf28c1a15f154356705335b8061792c58f5c7caba6fc6a80985eb6b1be:bdb97c288ccacd5278bcbc8c1c1d710cf384bc85ee6c037eb314b3b93f630ae3', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:db62ab0a17bf5d741556de247155cb6df9ea5689f3f6bb5e030e337d4b65710c:6c4717aab3b8c57d6165b750829306010b9ffcb8e643b638a9a47383d5fdd7a2', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:e503fb8d17f42316d387b15b7bed006223c570c037bab36a9528c260a01006dc:b9e99c9a349165915263a8e41f1ca0b7e06a9c5ef2b2f3d33ca87eb0c4a49bd2'], 'transform_version': 'market-series-lineage-2026-09-07-v1'}, 'vix_vix3m': 0.8884297520661157}

BDCs vs investment-grade credit — ◆ Mixed

subject: listed BDC pricing relative to investment-grade credit
chart: private_bdc_lqd
domain: Private markets
horizon: Near term
legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-15 / 2026-09-16 06:27:47+00:00
interpretation: Down 0.4% over the last 30 days.
evidence: 30-day relative-price change: -0.40%.
conflicting evidence: none recorded
What would change this call: A 30-day move through the opposite 1.5% threshold.
data quality: price action, not fundamentals
metrics:

unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': False, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 1.5, 'unit': '%', 'value': -0.40177819666085135, 'window': 'change_30d'}, 'band_pct': 1.5, 'change_30d_pct': -0.40177819666085135, 'components': ['ARCC.US', 'BXSL.US', 'LQD.US', 'OBDC.US'], 'series': 'BASKET_BDC_LQD', 'source_lineage': {'comparison_date': '2026-08-14', 'definition': {'captured_outputs': ['value', 'change_30d_pct'], 'denominator': ['LQD.US'], 'derivation_version': 'dependency_clocks_v2', 'minimum_denominator': 1, 'minimum_numerator': 2, 'numerator': ['ARCC.US', 'OBDC.US', 'BXSL.US'], 'rebase': True, 'rebase_epoch': '2026-02-02'}, 'first_observed_at': '2026-09-16 06:27:47.752000+00:00', 'inputs': {'comparison': [{'as_of': '2026-08-14', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:b892e8d67de60d6956c79b92bd9c24c21d389d8b00aa02c5a7efb43d03ebc4da:9f4726f5f1bfe1da23f83de6ec2cf000a6f021cab16ea4ba07444e3c8e706dac', 'symbol': 'ARCC.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-08-14', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:6bbfa3a2c79b4b2c02bbd48901450684e1c0fff873730772e367fd9cab873b68:7f79414b56f8ac6b205e18dc0553adc44f4f716fb2ea9f8c10073bccbb0f1fc1', 'symbol': 'BXSL.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-08-14', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:8408697caf1c2c3ebf9662aa279b14c3952542f15f75e5982070a191bb3398fd:76aee55ab98a00227b2b8113e9e5b943d5572dff7b10a0be9a875e9cde66c91f', 'symbol': 'LQD.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-08-14', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:15caa251ffff1344655a42d8632aae7f5cd127b75493ec033613be9fbf3f25f3:a42ab25540ba98d13e9f5c10369247e4cbff783ad47b0b7aa2df81f70a75731d', 'symbol': 'OBDC.US'}], 'current': [{'as_of': '2026-09-15', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:84814dbf46f9c84bb79193031cfaef220a3a5ef7aaef90e0412632344f944ad5:751af3733e749f3134afa1b12aac2aac4bb7a007644ba3792e511636525d411f', 'symbol': 'ARCC.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-15', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:658ba4fd099bcaabbd66bbb7e247451256f0caa377bd2af188801ef43564832f:5d83b466e7d4fba44794a45f54c0e3eea30f611b777dc2615f850ea673ec75db', 'symbol': 'BXSL.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-15', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:869bfb6097e552efc1087b6323aac38dd028de1a4c442ffca2c60b16ceef2779:95a785a776afb7d9dfcbbf73b61822db26152785c4cd5e4891dabb6f0a6f1dd1', 'symbol': 'LQD.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-09-15', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:340fbb3843892bacf489ae8c0f8147232ac700487ba7ff98155154e870100a2a:1b6f4927f87fe1e7fee1924a2591f411a65be2ab863729c069ba06ad738c1d95', 'symbol': 'OBDC.US'}], 'rebase': [{'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:32fc3433423e60f0b3763485fa452c4a0c0fb4155c44dd0c96bd8933f828668d:1c3fdbd423343684432a09e31d7b42ff5f3aabb961b603e140a11b5d0f034d67', 'symbol': 'ARCC.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:f9090861dda06a5193825dddc0c816e5eb5b4323f93347dc55b8ead1894fae3c:9f87d3ec5dc83c6b0c5b672bffdba2f22f20b8a9321d08dc1595c187dae6b622', 'symbol': 'BXSL.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:0a3b24d21584e6fbca681b743e988893b825186b4045fce1fe649b2f5c4a58ec:6d922cdc4d1caecd2c4e9403d176ecaceaf148436acb29b26d83085d2ab19a78', 'symbol': 'LQD.US'}, {'as_of': '2026-02-02', 'reference': 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:4b75261f1393603e430e77a732da9af9e95bfea66f15b87aa13d3c688550da2b:03d1b4e98672f98067240bbd67e273fb846010e53668f7b6678ac1ed9c9246d4', 'symbol': 'OBDC.US'}]}, 'price_convention': 'adjusted_close_when_present_else_close', 'schema_version': 1, 'source_refs': ['aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:0a3b24d21584e6fbca681b743e988893b825186b4045fce1fe649b2f5c4a58ec:6d922cdc4d1caecd2c4e9403d176ecaceaf148436acb29b26d83085d2ab19a78', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:15caa251ffff1344655a42d8632aae7f5cd127b75493ec033613be9fbf3f25f3:a42ab25540ba98d13e9f5c10369247e4cbff783ad47b0b7aa2df81f70a75731d', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:32fc3433423e60f0b3763485fa452c4a0c0fb4155c44dd0c96bd8933f828668d:1c3fdbd423343684432a09e31d7b42ff5f3aabb961b603e140a11b5d0f034d67', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:340fbb3843892bacf489ae8c0f8147232ac700487ba7ff98155154e870100a2a:1b6f4927f87fe1e7fee1924a2591f411a65be2ab863729c069ba06ad738c1d95', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:4b75261f1393603e430e77a732da9af9e95bfea66f15b87aa13d3c688550da2b:03d1b4e98672f98067240bbd67e273fb846010e53668f7b6678ac1ed9c9246d4', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:658ba4fd099bcaabbd66bbb7e247451256f0caa377bd2af188801ef43564832f:5d83b466e7d4fba44794a45f54c0e3eea30f611b777dc2615f850ea673ec75db', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:6bbfa3a2c79b4b2c02bbd48901450684e1c0fff873730772e367fd9cab873b68:7f79414b56f8ac6b205e18dc0553adc44f4f716fb2ea9f8c10073bccbb0f1fc1', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:8408697caf1c2c3ebf9662aa279b14c3952542f15f75e5982070a191bb3398fd:76aee55ab98a00227b2b8113e9e5b943d5572dff7b10a0be9a875e9cde66c91f', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:84814dbf46f9c84bb79193031cfaef220a3a5ef7aaef90e0412632344f944ad5:751af3733e749f3134afa1b12aac2aac4bb7a007644ba3792e511636525d411f', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:869bfb6097e552efc1087b6323aac38dd028de1a4c442ffca2c60b16ceef2779:95a785a776afb7d9dfcbbf73b61822db26152785c4cd5e4891dabb6f0a6f1dd1', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:b892e8d67de60d6956c79b92bd9c24c21d389d8b00aa02c5a7efb43d03ebc4da:9f4726f5f1bfe1da23f83de6ec2cf000a6f021cab16ea4ba07444e3c8e706dac', 'aib_bronze.equity_ohlcv:f9090861dda06a5193825dddc0c816e5eb5b4323f93347dc55b8ead1894fae3c:9f87d3ec5dc83c6b0c5b672bffdba2f22f20b8a9321d08dc1595c187dae6b622'], 'transform_version': 'market-series-lineage-2026-09-07-v1'}, 'value': 107.43296743807132}

Private AI secondary pricing — ⊘ No read

subject: private AI-company secondary-market pricing
chart: private_secondary_discount
horizon: Near term
data through: 2026-09-15
why no read: Tracked, but no qualifying data yet.
reasons: no direct private-market marks yet
data quality: none

AI event odds — ⊘ No read

subject: market-implied probability of registered AI-buildout events
chart: catalyst_ai_probability
horizon: Near term
data through: 2026-09-15
why no read: Tracked, but no qualifying data yet.
reasons: not enough event history yet
data quality: none

AMD earnings surprise — ⊘ No read

subject: AMD quarterly EPS execution versus consensus
chart: catalyst_earnings_amd
horizon: Reported quarter
data through: 2026-09-15
why no read: No qualifying data yet.
reasons: no reported EPS surprise yet
data quality: company-specific event; free-tier source

Amazon earnings surprise — ⊘ No read

subject: AMZN quarterly EPS execution versus consensus
chart: catalyst_earnings_amzn
horizon: Reported quarter
data through: 2026-09-15
why no read: No qualifying data yet.
reasons: no reported EPS surprise yet
data quality: company-specific event; free-tier source

Broadcom earnings surprise — ⊘ No read

subject: AVGO quarterly EPS execution versus consensus
chart: catalyst_earnings_avgo
horizon: Reported quarter
data through: 2026-09-15
why no read: No qualifying data yet.
reasons: no reported EPS surprise yet
data quality: company-specific event; free-tier source

Alphabet earnings surprise — ⊘ No read

subject: GOOGL quarterly EPS execution versus consensus
chart: catalyst_earnings_googl
horizon: Reported quarter
data through: 2026-09-15
why no read: No qualifying data yet.
reasons: no reported EPS surprise yet
data quality: company-specific event; free-tier source

Meta earnings surprise — ⊘ No read

subject: META quarterly EPS execution versus consensus
chart: catalyst_earnings_meta
horizon: Reported quarter
data through: 2026-09-15
why no read: No qualifying data yet.
reasons: no reported EPS surprise yet
data quality: company-specific event; free-tier source

Microsoft earnings surprise — ⊘ No read

subject: MSFT quarterly EPS execution versus consensus
chart: catalyst_earnings_msft
horizon: Reported quarter
data through: 2026-09-15
why no read: No qualifying data yet.
reasons: no reported EPS surprise yet
data quality: company-specific event; free-tier source

NVIDIA earnings surprise — ⊘ No read

subject: NVDA quarterly EPS execution versus consensus
chart: catalyst_earnings_nvda
horizon: Reported quarter
data through: 2026-09-15
why no read: No qualifying data yet.
reasons: no reported EPS surprise yet
data quality: company-specific event; free-tier source

Oracle earnings surprise — ⊘ No read

subject: ORCL quarterly EPS execution versus consensus
chart: catalyst_earnings_orcl
horizon: Reported quarter
data through: 2026-09-15
why no read: No qualifying data yet.
reasons: no reported EPS surprise yet
data quality: company-specific event; free-tier source

Implied OpenAI valuation — ▼ Bearish

subject: market-implied OpenAI IPO valuation
chart: catalyst_openai_valuation
domain: Catalysts
horizon: Near term
legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-15 / 2026-09-15 19:26:06+00:00
interpretation: The probability-weighted implied cap is $1,005B (conditional on an IPO), -17.09% over seven days.
evidence: Bucket-set 24h volume: $4,093.; Probability-weighted bucket midpoint: $1,005B.; Seven-day implied-cap change: -17.09%.
conflicting evidence: none recorded
What would change this call: The 7-day implied-valuation change crosses the opposite 5% band.
data quality: bucket-midpoint convention; conditional on an IPO occurring; prediction-market probabilities; source records not yet linked; thin market liquidity
metrics:

unparsed: {'band': {'inclusive': False, 'schema_version': 1, 'threshold': 5.0, 'unit': '%', 'value': -17.09125608432257, 'window': 'change_7d'}, 'band_pct': 5.0, 'bucket_prob_sum': 0.038, 'full_set_prob_sum': 0.989, 'implied_cap_change_7d_pct': -17.09125608432257, 'implied_cap_usd_b': 1004.9342105263158, 'ipo_by_2026_prob': 0.047, 'no_ipo_by_2026_prob': 0.951, 'volume_24h_total': 4092.939542}

US AI policy events — ⊘ No read

subject: US policy impact on AI-buildout beneficiaries and constraints
chart: policy_us_ai_events
horizon: Near term
data through: 2026-09-15
why no read: Tracked, but no qualifying data yet.
reasons: policy documents not yet classified for impact
data quality: none

Market Metrics

Power — load (EIA-930, latest complete day)

Power — load (EIA-930, latest complete day)
BA	as of	demand MWh	hours	anomaly z	YoY %
AZPS	2026-09-15	163,862	24	0.7395	22.84
CISO	2026-09-15	725,980	24	-1.299	-4.157
ERCO	2026-09-15	1,766,426	24	-0.1731	17.58
PJM	2026-09-15	2,284,173	24	-1.353	1.042
SOCO	2026-09-15	812,536	24	0.06818	17.83

Power — prices (ISO LMP, latest day)

Power — prices (ISO LMP, latest day)
ISO	mkt	location	LMP avg	basis vs hub	spark 7HR
CAISO	DA	TH_NP15_GEN-APND	39.65	—	—
CAISO	DA	TH_SP15_GEN-APND	36.08	-3.569	—
CAISO	DA	TH_ZP26_GEN-APND	34.96	-4.687	—

Compute — GPU rental (latest day)

H100 1y contract (canonical $/hr): —
H100 1y contract (offered $/hr): —
H100 spot (canonical $/hr): —
H100 spot (offered $/hr): 2.802
as of: 2026-09-15
frontier SKU: b300
frontier spot (offered $/hr): 7.415
offered-only day: 1
sources: 2
spot trend 30d %: 0.4082
spot/contract spread %: —
note: advertised listings only — canonical (transacted/indexed) columns are empty by construction until an index source is wired (docs/04 — Current limitations).

CEF NAV premium (latest per fund)

CEF NAV premium (latest per fund)
fund	as of	price	NAV/share	NAV effective	premium %	premium z
DXYZ	2026-09-15	30.26	34.3	2026-06-30	-11.78	-1.006

Supply chain (latest per series)

Supply chain (latest per series)
series	period	value	YoY %	MoM %	quality flags
tsmc_revenue	2026-08-01	514,805,337,000	53.32	10.1	revised_in_bronze

Model capability, cost and demand

250 benchmarked model identities; 200 have an exact catalog match. 8 ambiguous benchmark entries remain flagged and are excluded from the excerpt below.

Artificial Analysis — Intelligence Index. Higher reported scores first; each row preserves the evaluator's configuration label. The benchmark version is not reported. These results do not measure full workflow economics.

Model capability, cost and demand
Tested configuration	Index	Listed input / output per million tokens	Reported tokens
Claude Fable 5.1 (Adaptive Reasoning, Max Effort, Default Fallback)	53.4	$10 / $50	≥ 819,261,143,221
Qwen3.8 Max	53.4	No unique catalog match	≥ 845,714,442,752
GPT-6 Astra (max)	52.8	$10 / $50	≥ 1,066,346,951,116
Claude Opus 5 (Adaptive Reasoning, Max Effort)	50.7	$5 / $25	6,307,036,406,962
Claude Fable 5 (Adaptive Reasoning, Max Effort, Opus 4.8 Fallback)	49.7	$10 / $50	≥ 569,388,201,847
GPT-5.6 Sol (max)	47.1	$2 / $10	7,220,843,082,325
Qwen3.8 Max (0902)	45.4	$2 / $6	≥ 546,781,361,797
GLM-5.3 (max)	44.9	$1.4 / $4.4	≥ 8,076,821,076,050

Showing 8 of 99 eligible configurations.

Usage window: 2026-08-17 → 2026-09-15. OpenRouter public routed traffic excludes private and zero-data-retention traffic. A missing daily top-50 entry is unreported, not zero; ≥ marks a lower bound. Listed prices come from the selected catalog snapshot, not historical executed prices.

Hub links establish access evidence only; licensing and open-versus-closed classification remain unverified.

Sources: Artificial Analysis, via OpenRouter; OpenRouter rankings (aggregate usage: CC BY 4.0).

<details><summary>Model evidence provenance</summary>

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"parser_version": "f23f32552c04c28fafb1b17428ef6ea8f5fd98067bbf248e17dd45fd74e52a78", "partition_key": "public-v1", "published_at": "2026-09-16 06:26:06", "record_count": 1518, "records_hash": "5d0b3facac749b03edf4b345c4a874e51179800f105e189ee6e69cb95959cdf2", "snapshot_id": "7a30865d57febede5199b1e37e9982827ea0011b4aacf9c841d4f5d054464844", "source_version": "v1" }, "openrouter_performance": { "content_fingerprint": "bdc5866802dd1b088933511cef0a74614763a5d2f976c6b5e11819ad4c18f174", "dataset": "openrouter_performance", "document_ids": [ "6f1606d39ff599434b41ebc7043516038de3dc05ab7525e94f42156bf47f442e", "23b7c6c5d718e7732c9215569367815e60b8afc9c8fc470a0799d744e1fdc7f6", "353dc04d68ecf0db2fa467ff6a504ca21cd3f08457311dd4e9b9ca7fca685972", "1269ba6e064046ca37f20d9760b6ca2cbb1a55e894b44e3737c99a290c18a731", "3627a52fdee5774d4969dadcae133c786045a2742fbb2e6c158355ffcddd2656", "3b03dee5354af6bdbbfb49784a79911969a225c05a9215a44f74272b0c5cedc4", "75283e59db828ac063843e5b26e18a92a84c4785080433857429361b23e45313", "93b47d41d7f6ea8964551336b50135bbe2b33f2357879bff39583d33985ca682", "c7cc03a8304990ae7b4ea0c3da465873e7aab306635015009f415e66bac25508", "cf3de115c4df83d6ccf3450525621d47d56ffb06651d3e0cce8ad9bfb435cbf7", "a30bc7ced0b63786d95ae7ea6b583005755c975b385cfb229402a57a0758d2e9", "3e317b91ff8c3afdf87e92961eac68b8f1b4854a11992b45a6a1e8971b8c8ef0", "739746d22a489970223fb3c4f5110fcf933459171e8338eb16697b9e94d5a1fe", "89e5b84a547eb4c96d37970f908500535ff6e6c067fd65642e0f5b0446827969", "5c61b3ab260de9c2efa3f96461e8737a31f0932cb3d2083e5039202cde73c8c9", "2c59f13ca40cd2076869b72fbbd5b890da8d96381c848796b238a88e1181f546", "3a65fe0975c10a68e001341b16d2dcc2f384400ea3a800328537a6aec7eb6b5f", "9b5bfdeb483a6d490958aa5c27acc8dffe56ed52552a55b74d3ae92e7aeb0445", "020f97fb607db777e2f08579bab8972f6f4313c378d3a1b3e45fe6dc374b1325", "8335fc9e27f0c6b08e43b30ee3d4607935c435c1c298e461bef31cdaca51301d", "17b717560320300f296626feaf911f6024194d8826d29e297c0b41f8e41552fa", "02e852c49927bd23020a4698869cb15af3575988dd2a4f395404c499d11dabbd" ], "limitations": [ "selected_top20_catalog_matched_standard_models", "short_window_snapshots_not_daily_averages", "latency_source_unit_not_verified", "catalog_price_not_realized_spend", "hub_link_is_not_verified_open_source_rights" ], "observed_at": "2026-09-16 06:26:15", "parser_version": "f23f32552c04c28fafb1b17428ef6ea8f5fd98067bbf248e17dd45fd74e52a78", "partition_key": "public-v1", "published_at": "2026-09-16 06:26:38", "record_count": 743, "records_hash": "de2b34c754fb33f44cc02d2687ec92e9e454988d9a9c3a28bf2882a99c7df25b", "snapshot_id": "ef77a0b1b475de2fc41c3ae3f0df723750289f3a8ac0f0a02ef2ef7b1260ad14", "source_version": "catalog-and-top20-v1" }, "openrouter_rankings": { "content_fingerprint": "94b36236e85929be39041e32c26df645924f21611b94b62798fb78287e344a3c", "dataset": "openrouter_rankings", "document_ids": [ "155eeedbb85e47558e5f8795f57399fafb2c3b8b593fbeff2fbb54f5b8b62146" ], "limitations": [ "public_traffic_excludes_private_and_zdr", "daily_top50_variants_plus_other", "outside_top50_is_censored_not_zero", "provider_tokenizers_differ", "source_may_shorten_requested_window", "no_historical_receipt_before_collection" ], "observed_at": "2026-09-16 06:25:49", "parser_version": "f23f32552c04c28fafb1b17428ef6ea8f5fd98067bbf248e17dd45fd74e52a78", "partition_key": "public-v1", "published_at": "2026-09-16 06:26:07", "record_count": 1530, "records_hash": "79a25990c9d732b2a32fc77f59269c93e226095f602590b66fcd894d0aa03ec7", "snapshot_id": "9ad70776b9784746a8e98f2b40ea7fd6bb17ebda0c92d6ce94514478eb876fd2", "source_version": "v1" }, "openrouter_workloads": { "content_fingerprint": "ec8c4e76a2bd72c20e15b0ea5bb1afe5cc4e35e7553b2f640c29a5cbf29c3d38", "dataset": "openrouter_workloads", "document_ids": [ "07fd43b347b2d8fec6d40dc51e6ed9abb0c5dc8179b0e365a87df7f9de967032" ], "limitations": [ "sampled_relative_shares_not_absolute_volumes", "trailing_seven_day_window", "classification_is_not_successful_work", "model_lists_may_be_partial" ], "observed_at": "2026-09-16 03:32:59", "parser_version": "f23f32552c04c28fafb1b17428ef6ea8f5fd98067bbf248e17dd45fd74e52a78", "partition_key": "public-v1", "published_at": "2026-09-16 03:32:59", "record_count": 29, "records_hash": "f02a9534243e1c3cdbe9e54e61e671c9a378ac7791b314fed6e2473e9cc91c89", "snapshot_id": "c10845a1abc13565b492534411b3f11b49f205679da97a8608685690234244dd", "source_version": "window-7d" } } } ``

</details>

Appendix — Filed Capital-Structure Review

Confirmed facts below are analyst-reviewed against primary filings. Pending matches are not confirmed transactions. Direction appears only when an analyst separately records a subject, horizon, rationale, and falsifier.

Confirmed facts

Confirmed facts
entity	type	announced	amount	commitment	reviewer
MICROSOFT	capex_commitment	2026-07-29	329100000000.00 USD	other	claude-automated-review (research-verified; delegated by operator 2026-08-31)
NVIDIA	capex_commitment	2026-08-26	366000000000.00 USD	other	claude-automated-review (research-verified; delegated by operator 2026-08-31)
NVIDIA	debt_issuance	2026-06-15	25000000000.00 USD	senior_notes	claude-automated-review (research-verified; delegated by operator 2026-08-31)

MICROSOFT · capex_commitment: The matched excerpt is narrative (AI infrastructure investment risk factor), but the same 10-K quantifies the forward commitment: "As of June 30, 2026, we had additional leases, primarily for datacenters, that had not yet commenced of $329.1 billion", commencing fiscal 2027-2033 with terms of 1-20 years (leases note). Context from the same filing: fiscal-2026 additions to property and equipment were $115,948M (vs $64,551M in fiscal 2025); operating lease liabilities $21,925M and finance lease liabilities $66,594M at Jun 30 2026. Amount recorded is the $329.1B uncommenced datacenter lease commitment, the filing's only quantified forward buildout commitment; commitment_type=other because the enum lacks a lease category. announcement_date is the 10-K filing date; effective_date the balance-sheet date. primary filing
NVIDIA · capex_commitment: Verified against the 10-Q commitments schedule (R55 detail, accession 0001045810-26-000075): total future purchase commitments as of Jul 26 2026 are $366B, composed of supply and capacity $279B, cloud service agreements $29B, data center leases not commenced $25B, equity investments $25B, and capital expenditures $8B, spread remainder-FY2027 $120B / 2028 $100B / 2029 $98B / 2030 $16B / 2031 $10B / 2032+ $22B. Amount recorded is the $366B total contractual commitment; commitment_type=other because the total spans supply, cloud, lease, equity and capex categories (only $8B is the literal capital-expenditures line; breakdown given here). announcement_date is the 10-Q filing date; effective_date is the as-of balance date. primary filing
NVIDIA · debt_issuance: Verified against two independent primary sources. NVIDIA 10-Q (accession 0001045810-26-000075, period ended Jul 26 2026) states: "In June 2026, we issued an aggregate of $25.0 billion of senior unsecured notes across seven tranches for general corporate purposes." The seven new tranches in the long-term debt schedule (4.250% due 2028 $3.5B; 4.350% due 2029 $3.5B; 4.500% due 2031 $4.0B; 4.750% due 2033 $3.5B; 4.950% due 2036 $4.0B; 5.550% due 2046 $3.0B; 5.625% due 2056 $3.5B) sum to exactly $25.0B and match the prospectus supplement (424B5 dated Jun 15 2026, settlement on or about Jun 18 2026, net proceeds ~$24.9B, consistent with the 10-Q cash-flow debt proceeds of $24.9B). maturity_date left null: seven tranche maturities (2028-2056) cannot be represented by the single-date field; extend the typed fact model for multi-tranche before building the maturity wall from this row. primary filing

Confirmed debt issuance by quarter

Confirmed debt issuance by quarter
entity	period	amount	confirmed events	known at
NVIDIA	2026-04-01 → 2026-06-30	25000000000.00 USD	1	2026-08-26 20:36:00

Exact maturity wall

Unavailable: no analyst-confirmed amount with an exact maturity date is available.

These are raw confirmed fundamentals, not directional signals. Currencies are not converted or combined, and narrative maturity ranges are not assigned fabricated dates.

Pending review

Pending review
entity	candidate type	status	form	known at	matched terms
ORACLE	capex_commitment	candidate	10-Q	2026-09-11 20:10:12	capital expenditures

ORACLE · capex_commitment: …ed revenues 3,997 2,550 Net cash provided by operating activities 23,103 8,140 Cash flows from investing activities: Purchases of marketable securities and other investments ( 306 ) ( 471 ) Proceeds from sales and maturities of marketable securities and other investments 225 255 Capital expenditures ( 28,499 ) ( 8,502 ) Net cash used for investing activities ( 28,580 ) ( 8,718 ) Cash flows from financing activities: Proceeds from issuances of common stock via at-the-market program, net of issuance costs 19,909 — Net proceeds from employee stock programs 41 1,153 Payments of… primary filing

Rejected matches (not evidence)

Rejected matches (not evidence)
entity	candidate type	reviewer	reason
MICROSOFT	debt_refinancing_maturity	claude-automated-review (research-verified; delegated by operator 2026-08-31)	False positive: the matched term "debt maturities" occurs in Microsoft's generic liquidity assertion (existing cash, operations and capital-market access sufficient to fund dividends, share repurchases, debt maturities and capital expenditures for at least 12 months). Verified in the 10-K (accession 0001193125-26-323660): no new issuance, refinancing transaction, or specific maturity event is disclosed in that passage; debt additional-information reports only fair value of long-term debt ($36.5B at Jun 30 2026) with no fiscal-2026 issuance. No typed fact exists to confirm.
NVIDIA	debt_refinancing_maturity	claude-automated-review (research-verified; delegated by operator 2026-08-31)	Disclosure verified real but not a discrete refinancing/maturity event: the match is NVIDIA's aggregate debt maturities schedule as of Jul 26 2026 (due <=1y $1,000M; 1-5y $15,000M; 5-10y $7,500M; >10y $10,000M), a bucketed liability table. The underlying June 2026 $25.0B issuance is captured by the confirmed debt_issuance review on the sibling candidate from the same document. The typed fact model has a single maturity_date and cannot represent maturity buckets; re-emit or re-review once maturity-bucket fact items exist (open work item in current-build-state).

Appendix — Data Coverage

Operational snapshot at report generation time. Run timestamps can post-date the evidence period; a source watermark can also be a scheduled future event date and does not extend the report's evidence window.

Appendix — Data Coverage
collector	last status	rows	last run	source watermark	note
catalyst_markets	ok	12	2026-09-16 21:04:31	—	—
cef_nav	ok	8	2026-09-16 06:25:41	—	—
chain_anchor	error	0	2026-09-16 05:20:06	—	MissingAnchorConfigurationError: External integrity gate unmet: configure AIB_ANCHOR_BUCKET, AIB_ANCHOR_BUCKET_OWNER, AIB_ANCHOR_KMS_KEY_ARN
colo_public_research	ok	3	2026-09-16 06:25:41	—	—
distribute	ok	1	2026-09-07 21:39:00	—	—
earnings_calendar	ok	0	2026-09-16 06:25:41	—	—
earnings_events	ok	6	2026-09-16 06:25:41	—	—
edgar_disclosures	ok	3	2026-09-16 06:25:41	—	—
edgar_filing_documents	ok	0	2026-09-16 06:25:54	—	—
eia930	ok	293	2026-09-16 23:18:00	—	—
eia930_subba	ok	25	2026-09-16 23:11:20	—	—
engine	ok	3324	2026-09-16 06:27:52	—	—
epoch_data_centers	ok	585	2026-09-16 06:25:41	—	—
equity_ohlcv	ok	5605	2026-09-16 06:25:41	—	—
gpu_spot	ok	233	2026-09-16 21:42:00	—	—
hf_model_stats	ok	239	2026-09-16 06:25:41	—	—
iso_lmp	ok	72	2026-09-16 23:57:12	—	partial: PJM: gridstatus PJM DA fetch failed: 403 Client Error: Forbidden for url: https://api.pjm.com/api/v1/da_hrl_lmps?fields=congestion_price_da%2Cdatetime_beginning_ept%2Cdatetime_beginning_utc%2
korea_exports	ok	0	2026-09-16 06:25:41	—	—
metr_tasks	ok	24008	2026-09-16 06:25:41	—	—
metr_tasks_1_0	ok	41629	2026-09-16 06:25:41	—	—
mlperf_inference	ok	520	2026-09-16 06:25:41	—	—
model_catalog	ok	443	2026-09-16 06:25:41	—	—
model_releases	ok	9	2026-09-16 06:25:41	—	—
model_usage	ok	564	2026-09-16 06:25:41	—	—
natgas	ok	5	2026-09-16 06:25:41	—	—
openrouter_activity	ok	100	2026-09-16 06:25:41	—	—
openrouter_benchmarks	ok	1518	2026-09-16 06:25:41	—	—
openrouter_performance	ok	743	2026-09-16 06:25:41	—	—
openrouter_rankings	ok	1530	2026-09-16 06:25:41	—	—
openrouter_workloads	ok	0	2026-09-16 06:25:41	—	—
policy_events	error	0	2026-09-16 06:25:41	—	ConnectionError: Request timed out:
report	ok	1	2026-09-16 05:10:07	—	—
sec_company_facts	ok	7348	2026-09-16 06:25:41	—	—
tsmc_revenue	ok	1	2026-09-16 06:25:41	—	—

Errored last run: chain_anchor, policy_events

Methodology: the runtime is deterministic end to end. Each chart is labelled bullish, bearish, mixed, or no read for an explicitly named subject and horizon. No domain total, composite, or numeric confidence is calculated. Missing evidence remains unavailable; hits and misses publish at equal prominence. The sha256 of this issue's final markdown is stored append-only in aib_gold.report_issues for future external anchoring.

Published 2026-09-17 05:42 UTC · content hash c8c5cad30d346d5488b989dffff56407847526698fa402aaed1d8eb9730def50 · context hash 7b63883ca85f4351872d975a993af101a18cf7166f1f0c17418aad16d71d3c11 · narrative not included