PREXEL — AI_BUILDOUT · Issue No. 20 (daily)

Period: 2026-09-11 → 2026-09-11

Context hash: fd9f19626ac0dfa806da3a0b8c295ca23440a8bb00684d0ab5040feac11f1671

Published Changes in This Issue Period

Open patterns

• FOUNDRY_VS_SEMICONDUCTOR_MARKET_DIVERGENCE — conflict across Capital markets + Supply chain; open since 4 Sep.

Evidence and call changes

No publication was recorded in this period; no change comparison is claimed.

Today in Brief

• Recorded changed reads: 0 chart-local read(s); comparison coverage is stated in the published briefing above.
• Current evidence coverage: 36 usable / 15 no read — 18 bullish, 6 bearish, 12 mixed. These are coverage counts, not an aggregate market signal.
• Open cross-domain events: 1
• Filed capital-structure candidates (trailing 90d): 5
• Forced-flow events (trailing 30d): 1
• Open monitored opportunities: 0

Cross-Domain Events

Open

Recently resolved (trailing 14d)

Forced Flows & Opportunities

Forced-flow events (trailing 30d)

No open opportunities.

Settled (trailing 30d — hits, misses, kills, unresolvables at parity)

Filed Capital-Structure Developments

3 confirmed fact(s), 0 awaiting review, and 2 rejected match(es). Pending candidates are not confirmed transactions.

• MICROSOFT · capex_commitment: 329100000000.00 USD; announced 2026-07-29.
• NVIDIA · capex_commitment: 366000000000.00 USD; announced 2026-08-26.
• NVIDIA · debt_issuance: 25000000000.00 USD; announced 2026-06-15.

Full filing links, excerpts, reviewer facts, and methodology are in the appendix.

Evidence Appendix — All Directional Observations

B200 vs H100 rental price — ▼ Bearish

• subject: frontier-vs-installed-base GPU rental pricing
• chart: compute_b200_h100
• domain: Compute
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-06 / 2026-09-06 22:52:56+00:00
• interpretation: The B200/H100 rent ratio is compressing — the frontier premium is eroding.
• evidence: b200_h100_ratio=2.2785487708168133; b200_h100_ratio_change_14d_pct=-0.18256610333412082; b200_offered_usd_hr=6.385; band_measured_pct=-18.256610333412084; band_pct=5.0; h100_spot_usd_hr=2.8022222222222206
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: The 14-day B200/H100 ratio change crosses the opposite 5% band.
• data quality: advertised prices, not closed deals; source records not yet linked
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'b200_h100_ratio': 2.2785487708168133, 'b200_h100_ratio_change_14d_pct': -0.18256610333412082, 'b200_offered_usd_hr': 6.385, 'band_measured_pct': -18.256610333412084, 'band_pct': 5.0, 'h100_spot_usd_hr': 2.8022222222222206}

GPU rental availability — ◆ Mixed

• subject: GPU rental-provider pricing power
• chart: compute_availability
• domain: Compute
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-06 / 2026-09-06 22:52:56+00:00
• interpretation: GPU capacity listed as available.
• evidence: availability_state=available; capacity_booked_through=None
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: Marketplace availability flipping to the opposite state.
• data quality: advertised prices, not closed deals; source records not yet linked
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'availability_state': 'available', 'capacity_booked_through': None}

GPU marketplace depth — ▲ Bullish

• subject: GPU rental lessor pricing power
• chart: compute_gpu_depth
• domain: Compute
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-06 / 2026-09-06 22:52:56+00:00
• interpretation: Listed H100 supply is thinning while offered prices rise — lessor pricing power is firming.
• evidence: h100_depth_change_14d_pct=-0.013333333333333334; h100_depth_smoothed_3d=55.5; h100_dispersion_smoothed_3d=2.1835992336273193; h100_price_change_14d_pct=0.18933630473639876
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: The joint 14-day condition reverses: smoothed depth and price changes take the opposite sign pair.
• data quality: advertised prices, not closed deals; single marketplace panel; source records not yet linked
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'h100_depth_change_14d_pct': -0.013333333333333334, 'h100_depth_smoothed_3d': 55.5, 'h100_dispersion_smoothed_3d': 2.1835992336273193, 'h100_price_change_14d_pct': 0.18933630473639876}

GPU resale values — ⊘ No read

• subject: GPU asset residual values
• chart: compute_residual_value
• horizon: Medium term
• data through: 2026-09-06
• why no read: No qualifying data yet.
• reasons: secondary-market data not yet available
• data quality: source not yet wired

GPU spot vs contract pricing — ⊘ No read

• subject: near-term GPU rental pricing
• chart: compute_spot_contract
• horizon: Near term
• data through: 2026-09-06
• why no read: No qualifying data yet.
• reasons: not enough term-structure history yet
• data quality: advertised prices, not closed deals

H100 spot rental price — ⊘ No read

• subject: H100 rental-provider pricing power
• chart: compute_h100_spot
• horizon: Near term
• data through: 2026-09-06
• why no read: No qualifying data yet.
• reasons: spot-price trend not yet available
• data quality: advertised prices, not closed deals

Inference demand — OpenRouter — ▲ Bullish

• subject: OpenRouter public-app inference activity
• chart: compute_inference_demand
• domain: Compute
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-06 / 2026-09-07 10:48:14+00:00
• interpretation: Up 8.9% over the last seven snapshots.
• evidence: Seven-snapshot token-activity change: 8.86%.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: The activity trend crossing the opposite 2% threshold.
• data quality: token counts differ across models; public apps only; rolling 30-day window; source records not yet linked
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band_pct': 2.0, 'token_change_7d_pct': 8.857031222642409, 'top_n': 100, 'total_requests': 2190654074, 'total_tokens': 144877555897528}

Inference demand concentration — ▼ Bearish

• subject: durability of routed inference demand
• chart: compute_demand_concentration
• domain: Compute
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-06 / 2026-09-07 10:48:14+00:00
• interpretation: Routed inference demand is concentrating into its largest apps — the demand base is thinning.
• evidence: Fourteen-day concentration change: +2.51pp.; Top-10 apps' share of top-100 attributed tokens: 79.4%.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: The 14-day top-10 concentration change crosses the opposite 1.5-point band.
• data quality: public apps only; rolling 30-day window; source records not yet linked
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band_pp': 1.5, 'top10_app_token_share': 79.42817630231052, 'top10_share_change_14d_pp': 2.505099718109335}

Inference price cuts (like-for-like) — ⊘ No read

• subject: like-for-like inference pricing for compute sellers
• chart: compute_price_cuts
• horizon: Near term
• data through: 2026-09-06
• why no read: The fixed-basket price is $0.737/Mtok, but the 7-day like-for-like comparison window is not yet met.
• reasons: not enough catalog-snapshot history yet
• data quality: fixed basket, prior-day token weights; a single router's traffic

Effective inference price — ⊘ No read

• subject: inference unit economics for compute sellers
• chart: compute_inference_price
• horizon: Near term
• data through: 2026-09-06
• why no read: The token-weighted effective price is $0.754/Mtok, but the 7-day comparison window is not yet met.
• reasons: not enough price history yet
• data quality: a panel, not a census; a single router's traffic; token-weighted blend across models

Model launch cadence — ▲ Bullish

• subject: frontier-model supply cadence
• chart: compute_model_launches
• domain: Compute
• horizon: Medium term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-08-01 / 2026-09-06 12:53:38+00:00
• interpretation: New-model listings are running ahead of their trailing baseline — frontier-model supply cadence is accelerating.
• evidence: Prior twelve-month baseline: 18.3 listings/month.; Relative change: +83.6%.; Trailing three complete months: 101 new listings (33.7/month).
• conflicting evidence: Retroactive months undercount models delisted before the first catalog snapshot, which biases the trailing-vs-baseline comparison toward acceleration.
• What would change this call: The trailing-3-month listing rate crosses the opposite 25% band versus the prior-12-month baseline.
• data quality: a single router's traffic; source records not yet linked; retroactive series — survivorship-biased
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band_rel_pct': 25.0, 'baseline_12mo_rate': 18.333333333333332, 'listing_rate_change_pct': 83.63636363636364, 'newest_complete_month': '2026-08-01', 'trailing_3mo_listings': 101, 'trailing_3mo_rate': 33.666666666666664}

Open-weights token share — ⊘ No read

• subject: substitution pressure on closed-model pricing power
• chart: compute_openweights_share
• horizon: Near term
• data through: 2026-09-06
• why no read: Open-weights models carry 52.5% of routed standard tokens, but the 14-day comparison window is not yet met.
• reasons: not enough share history yet
• data quality: a panel, not a census; a single router's traffic

TSMC monthly revenue — ▲ Bullish

• subject: leading foundry demand represented by TSMC monthly revenue
• chart: supply_tsmc_revenue
• domain: Supply chain
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-06 / 2026-08-16 16:00:00+00:00
• interpretation: Up 44.7% over the last year.
• evidence: tsmc_revenue published year-on-year growth: 44.69%.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: Year-over-year growth crossing zero.
• data quality: source publication time unverified
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'mom_pct': 5.624961765550318, 'source_period': '2026-07-01', 'value': 467580548000.0, 'yoy_pct': 44.68755126916978}

Korean chip exports — ⊘ No read

• subject: Korean semiconductor export demand
• chart: supply_korea_semiconductor_exports
• horizon: Near term
• data through: 2026-09-06
• why no read: No qualifying data yet.
• reasons: monthly growth figure not yet available
• data quality: none

CAISO day-ahead power prices — ▲ Bullish

• subject: California day-ahead power prices relevant to data-centre siting
• chart: power_lmp_caiso
• domain: Power
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-06 / 2026-09-07 12:58:43+00:00
• interpretation: California day-ahead power prices are running materially below their prior two-week average.
• evidence: CAISO NP15 DA 7-day average $40.82/MWh vs prior 14-day $50.78/MWh (-19.6%)
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: The seven-day average day-ahead price re-crosses the registered ±15% band versus the prior fourteen-day average.
• data quality: secondary AI region — proxy read; source records not yet linked
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band_pct': 15.0, 'caiso_da_7d_avg_usd_mwh': 40.81820404761904, 'caiso_da_prior_14d_avg_usd_mwh': 50.77980836915536, 'caiso_da_trend_pct': -19.617254655862766}

CAISO implied heat rate — ▲ Bullish

• subject: scarcity of dispatchable power net of fuel in CAISO
• chart: power_heat_rate_caiso
• domain: Power
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-06 / 2026-09-07 12:58:43+00:00
• interpretation: CAISO power is getting materially cheaper net of fuel — dispatchable scarcity is easing.
• evidence: CAISO NP15 DA implied heat rate 7-day average 14.08 MMBtu/MWh vs prior 14-day 17.92 (-21.5%)
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: The seven-day average implied heat rate re-crosses the registered ±15% band versus the prior fourteen-day average.
• data quality: Henry Hub gas proxy, not local basis; latest gas print lags the power print; secondary AI region — proxy read; source records not yet linked
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band_pct': 15.0, 'caiso_heat_rate_7d_avg': 14.07524277504105, 'caiso_heat_rate_prior_14d_avg': 17.92102081473945, 'caiso_heat_rate_trend_pct': -21.45959250566449, 'gas_print_max_lag_days': 5}

Data-centre load premium — ▲ Bullish

• subject: excess PJM load growth attributable to data-centre buildout
• chart: power_dc_load_premium
• domain: Power
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-06 / 2026-09-07 12:58:43+00:00
• interpretation: PJM load growth is materially outrunning the CISO/ERCO controls — excess growth consistent with data-centre buildout is materializing.
• evidence: PJM 7-day mean weather-blind YoY +31.00% vs control mean +3.92% (gap +27.09pp)
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: The seven-day mean PJM-minus-control YoY growth gap re-crosses the registered ±1.5-point band.
• data quality: attribution by subtraction, not measurement; source records not yet linked; weather-blind same-week YoY method
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band_pp': 1.5, 'ciso_load_yoy_7d_pct': -8.485146574646697, 'dc_load_premium_pp': 27.08665934464689, 'erco_load_yoy_7d_pct': 16.3176492686319, 'pjm_load_yoy_7d_pct': 31.002910691639492}

Dominion (N. Virginia) electricity demand — ▲ Bullish

• subject: Dominion-zone electricity demand as the ground-truth NoVA data-centre load read
• chart: power_load_nova
• domain: Power
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-06 / 2026-09-07 12:58:43+00:00
• interpretation: Dominion-zone demand is growing materially versus the same week last year — data-centre load is materializing.
• evidence: Dominion-zone 7-day mean weather-blind YoY +29.89% (n=6)
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: The seven-day mean weather-blind year-over-year growth re-crosses the registered ±3% band.
• data quality: source records not yet linked; weather-blind same-week YoY method
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band_pct': 3.0, 'nova_load_demand_mwh': 89497.0, 'nova_load_yoy_7d_pct': 29.887771117491315, 'nova_load_yoy_window_obs': 6}

N. Virginia power basis — ⊘ No read

• subject: Northern Virginia data-centre power economics
• chart: power_basis_nova
• horizon: Near term
• data through: 2026-09-06
• why no read: No qualifying data yet.
• reasons: power-basis data not yet available
• data quality: none

Nuclear fuel cycle vs S&P 500 — ◆ Mixed

• subject: public-market pricing of the long-duration nuclear power cohort relative to the broad market
• chart: power_nuclear_spx
• domain: Power
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-04 / 2026-09-07 10:48:06+00:00
• interpretation: Down 0.2% over the last 30 days.
• evidence: 30-day relative-price change: -0.16%.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: A 30-day move through the opposite 2.0% threshold.
• data quality: correlation, not exposure evidence; price action, not fundamentals; source records not yet linked
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band_pct': 2.0, 'change_30d_pct': -0.16178338968170225, 'components': ['BWXT.US', 'CCJ.US', 'GSPC.INDX', 'LEU.US', 'OKLO.US', 'URNM.US'], 'series': 'BASKET_NUCLEAR_SPX', 'value': 65.320600350164}

PJM electricity demand — ◆ Mixed

• subject: PJM electricity demand
• chart: power_load_pjm
• domain: Power
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-06 / 2026-09-07 12:46:13+00:00
• interpretation: PJM load remains within its normal weekday range.
• evidence: PJM load anomaly z=-0.856
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: The anomaly crosses the opposite pre-registered threshold.
• data quality: source records not yet linked; weekday baseline; weather effects not isolated
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'dc_load_anomaly_z': -0.8564871052140255, 'dc_load_growth_yoy': 19.23047965170996}

PJM day-ahead vs real-time prices — ⊘ No read

• subject: near-term PJM electricity demand
• chart: power_da_rt_spread
• horizon: Near term
• data through: 2026-09-06
• why no read: No qualifying data yet.
• reasons: day-ahead/real-time price data not yet available
• data quality: none

Data-centre power capacity delivery — ⊘ No read

• subject: AI data-centre capacity delivery
• chart: power_capacity_delivery
• horizon: Structural
• data through: 2026-09-06
• why no read: Capacity filings not yet wired in.
• reasons: capacity filings not yet wired in
• data quality: data plane not yet built

Colo asking rents — N. Virginia — ▲ Bullish

• subject: landlord pricing power in Northern Virginia colocation
• chart: colo_asking_rates
• domain: Colocation
• horizon: Quarterly
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-03-31 / 2026-06-17 00:00:00+00:00
• interpretation: Asking rents at $212.50/kW-month and rising.
• evidence: Public page states a $190-$235 range and continued average-rate increase
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: The next market report showing the metric moving the other way.
• data quality: dated public research; not a continuous feed
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'direction': 'increased', 'market': 'Northern Virginia', 'metric': 'asking_rent_midpoint_usd_kw_month', 'prior_value': None, 'source_url': 'https://www.cbre.com/insights/reports/global-data-center-trends-2026', 'unit': 'usd_per_kw_month', 'value': 212.5}

Colo capacity delivered — N. Virginia — ▲ Bullish

• subject: delivered wholesale colocation capacity in Northern Virginia
• chart: colo_capacity_delivery
• domain: Colocation
• horizon: Quarterly
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-03-31 / 2026-06-17 00:00:00+00:00
• interpretation: 1,136 MW added year over year and rising.
• evidence: CBRE public webpage, Q1 2026 delivered inventory increase
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: The next market report showing the metric moving the other way.
• data quality: dated public research; not a continuous feed
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'direction': 'increased', 'market': 'Northern Virginia', 'metric': 'inventory_added_yoy_mw', 'prior_value': None, 'source_url': 'https://www.cbre.com/insights/reports/global-data-center-trends-2026', 'unit': 'mw', 'value': 1135.9}

Data-centre landlords vs S&P 500 — ▼ Bearish

• subject: listed data-centre landlord pricing relative to the broad market
• chart: colo_public_landlords_spx
• domain: Colocation
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-04 / 2026-09-07 10:48:06+00:00
• interpretation: Down 4.4% over the last 30 days.
• evidence: 30-day relative-price change: -4.39%.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: A 30-day move through the opposite 2.0% threshold.
• data quality: price action, not fundamentals; source records not yet linked
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band_pct': 2.0, 'change_30d_pct': -4.385741883966965, 'components': ['DLR.US', 'EQIX.US', 'GSPC.INDX', 'IRM.US'], 'series': 'BASKET_COLO_SPX', 'value': 113.72413994368466}

Colo vacancy — N. Virginia — ▲ Bullish

• subject: landlord pricing power in Northern Virginia colocation
• chart: colo_vacancy
• domain: Colocation
• horizon: Quarterly
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-03-31 / 2026-06-17 00:00:00+00:00
• interpretation: Vacancy at 0.3% and falling.
• evidence: CBRE public webpage, Q1 2026
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: The next market report showing the metric moving the other way.
• data quality: dated public research; not a continuous feed
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'direction': 'decreased', 'market': 'Northern Virginia', 'metric': 'vacancy_pct', 'prior_value': 0.8, 'source_url': 'https://www.cbre.com/insights/reports/global-data-center-trends-2026', 'unit': 'pct', 'value': 0.3}

Hyperscalers vs S&P 500 — ◆ Mixed

• subject: public-market pricing of the hyperscaler cohort relative to the broad market
• chart: exposure_hyperscaler_spx
• domain: Company exposure
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-04 / 2026-09-07 10:48:06+00:00
• interpretation: Up 0.7% over the last 30 days.
• evidence: 30-day relative-price change: 0.74%.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: A 30-day move through the opposite 2.0% threshold.
• data quality: correlation, not exposure evidence; price action, not fundamentals; source records not yet linked
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band_pct': 2.0, 'change_30d_pct': 0.7364519201731756, 'components': ['AMZN.US', 'GOOGL.US', 'GSPC.INDX', 'META.US', 'MSFT.US', 'ORCL.US'], 'series': 'BASKET_HYPERSCALER_SPX', 'value': 92.35893012142886}

Neoclouds vs S&P 500 — ◆ Mixed

• subject: public-market pricing of the neocloud cohort relative to the broad market
• chart: exposure_neocloud_spx
• domain: Company exposure
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-04 / 2026-09-07 10:48:06+00:00
• interpretation: Up 1.8% over the last 30 days.
• evidence: 30-day relative-price change: 1.77%.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: A 30-day move through the opposite 2.0% threshold.
• data quality: correlation, not exposure evidence; price action, not fundamentals; source records not yet linked
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band_pct': 2.0, 'change_30d_pct': 1.7658133956267585, 'components': ['APLD.US', 'CRWV.US', 'GSPC.INDX', 'IREN.US', 'NBIS.US'], 'series': 'BASKET_NEOCLOUD_SPX', 'value': 116.87145356080674}

AI power names vs S&P 500 — ▼ Bearish

• subject: public-market pricing of the AI-power cohort relative to the broad market
• chart: exposure_power_spx
• domain: Company exposure
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-04 / 2026-09-07 10:48:06+00:00
• interpretation: Down 2.5% over the last 30 days.
• evidence: 30-day relative-price change: -2.50%.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: A 30-day move through the opposite 2.0% threshold.
• data quality: correlation, not exposure evidence; price action, not fundamentals; source records not yet linked
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band_pct': 2.0, 'change_30d_pct': -2.498395310554835, 'components': ['CEG.US', 'ETN.US', 'GEV.US', 'GSPC.INDX', 'PWR.US', 'TLN.US', 'VST.US'], 'series': 'BASKET_POWER_SPX', 'value': 101.20455548855966}

Semiconductors vs S&P 500 — ▼ Bearish

• subject: semiconductor equity leadership relative to the broad US market
• chart: capital_sox_spx
• domain: Capital markets
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-04 / 2026-09-07 10:48:06+00:00
• interpretation: Down 2.2% over the last 30 days.
• evidence: 30-day relative-price change: -2.22%.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: A 30-day move through the opposite 2.0% threshold.
• data quality: price action, not fundamentals; source records not yet linked
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band_pct': 2.0, 'change_30d_pct': -2.2157801988860526, 'components': ['GSPC.INDX', 'SOX.INDX'], 'series': 'RATIO_SOX_SPX', 'value': 130.39402474861558}

CLO BBB vs AAA tranches — ◆ Mixed

• subject: marginal risk appetite in the AI buildout's securitized-debt channel
• chart: capital_jbbb_jaaa
• domain: Capital markets
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-04 / 2026-09-07 10:48:06+00:00
• interpretation: Up 0.3% over the last 30 days.
• evidence: 30-day relative-price change: 0.34%.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: A 30-day move through the opposite 1.0% threshold.
• data quality: price action, not fundamentals; source records not yet linked
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band_pct': 1.0, 'change_30d_pct': 0.3355957970741841, 'components': ['JAAA.US', 'JBBB.US'], 'series': 'RATIO_JBBB_JAAA', 'value': 99.61264446739978}

AI-complex correlation regime — ◆ Mixed

• subject: single-narrative fragility of the US-listed AI-buildout complex
• chart: capital_correlation_regime
• domain: Capital markets
• horizon: Medium term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-04 / 2026-09-07 10:48:06+00:00
• interpretation: Median pairwise correlation is inside its registered 20th-80th percentile range.
• evidence: 63-day median pairwise correlation: 0.238.; Two-year own-history percentile: 36.1.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: The 63-day median pairwise correlation's two-year percentile crosses the opposite registered 20th/80th threshold.
• data quality: price action, not fundamentals; source records not yet linked; US-listed cohort only
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'corr_percentile_2y': 36.14190687361419, 'high_percentile_threshold': 80.0, 'low_percentile_threshold': 20.0, 'median_pairwise_corr_63d': 0.23753744152529024, 'pair_count': 17578, 'symbol_count': 188}

High-yield vs investment-grade credit — ◆ Mixed

• subject: public-credit risk appetite relevant to AI-buildout financing
• chart: capital_hyg_lqd
• domain: Capital markets
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-04 / 2026-09-07 10:48:06+00:00
• interpretation: Up 0.9% over the last 30 days.
• evidence: 30-day relative-price change: 0.87%.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: A 30-day move through the opposite 1.0% threshold.
• data quality: price action, not fundamentals; source records not yet linked
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band_pct': 1.0, 'change_30d_pct': 0.8653310453866414, 'components': ['HYG.US', 'LQD.US'], 'series': 'RATIO_HYG_LQD', 'value': 102.92581022528738}

Equal-weight vs cap-weight S&P — ◆ Mixed

• subject: US equity breadth relative to capitalization-weighted equities
• chart: capital_rsp_spx
• domain: Capital markets
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-04 / 2026-09-07 10:48:06+00:00
• interpretation: Down 0.3% over the last 30 days.
• evidence: 30-day relative-price change: -0.27%.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: A 30-day move through the opposite 1.0% threshold.
• data quality: price action, not fundamentals; source records not yet linked
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band_pct': 1.0, 'change_30d_pct': -0.2682758901503379, 'components': ['GSPC.INDX', 'RSP.US'], 'series': 'RATIO_RSP_SPX', 'value': 100.23170147358907}

Nasdaq 100 vs S&P 500 — ◆ Mixed

• subject: mega-cap concentration in US equities
• chart: capital_ndx_spx
• domain: Capital markets
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-04 / 2026-09-07 10:48:06+00:00
• interpretation: Up 0.3% over the last 30 days.
• evidence: 30-day relative-price change: 0.26%.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: A 30-day move through the opposite 1.0% threshold.
• data quality: price action, not fundamentals; source records not yet linked
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band_pct': 1.0, 'change_30d_pct': 0.2554201983857807, 'components': ['GSPC.INDX', 'NDX.INDX'], 'series': 'RATIO_NDX_SPX', 'value': 103.74848137249346}

Utilities vs S&P 500 — ◆ Mixed

• subject: utilities repricing relative to the broad market
• chart: capital_xlu_spx
• domain: Capital markets
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-04 / 2026-09-07 10:48:06+00:00
• interpretation: Down 1.3% over the last 30 days.
• evidence: 30-day relative-price change: -1.27%.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: A 30-day move through the opposite 1.5% threshold.
• data quality: price action, not fundamentals; source records not yet linked
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band_pct': 1.5, 'change_30d_pct': -1.2651362749771522, 'components': ['GSPC.INDX', 'XLU.US'], 'series': 'RATIO_XLU_SPX', 'value': 92.58705736516451}

VIX term structure — ▲ Bullish

• subject: near-term public-market risk appetite
• chart: capital_vix_term
• domain: Capital markets
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-04 / 2026-09-07 10:48:06+00:00
• interpretation: Front VIX at 0.82× the 3-month tenor.
• evidence: VIX/VIX3M: 0.825.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: The VIX term structure crossing the opposite 0.95/1.05 threshold.
• data quality: price action, not fundamentals; source records not yet linked
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'vix_vix3m': 0.8250993753549118}

BDCs vs investment-grade credit — ▲ Bullish

• subject: listed BDC pricing relative to investment-grade credit
• chart: private_bdc_lqd
• domain: Private markets
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-04 / 2026-09-07 10:48:06+00:00
• interpretation: Up 5.4% over the last 30 days.
• evidence: 30-day relative-price change: 5.37%.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: A 30-day move through the opposite 1.5% threshold.
• data quality: price action, not fundamentals; source records not yet linked
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band_pct': 1.5, 'change_30d_pct': 5.370307384656026, 'components': ['ARCC.US', 'BXSL.US', 'LQD.US', 'OBDC.US'], 'series': 'BASKET_BDC_LQD', 'value': 108.37808406923408}

Private AI secondary pricing — ⊘ No read

• subject: private AI-company secondary-market pricing
• chart: private_secondary_discount
• horizon: Near term
• data through: 2026-09-06
• why no read: Tracked, but no qualifying data yet.
• reasons: no direct private-market marks yet
• data quality: none

AI event odds — ⊘ No read

• subject: market-implied probability of registered AI-buildout events
• chart: catalyst_ai_probability
• horizon: Near term
• data through: 2026-09-06
• why no read: Tracked, but no qualifying data yet.
• reasons: not enough event history yet
• data quality: none

AMD earnings surprise — ▲ Bullish

• subject: AMD quarterly EPS execution versus consensus
• chart: catalyst_earnings_amd
• domain: Catalysts
• horizon: Reported quarter
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-08-04 / 2026-09-04 09:20:40+00:00
• interpretation: AMD beat consensus EPS by 23.0%.
• evidence: Reported EPS 1.66 versus estimate 1.35.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: Next quarter's EPS surprise landing on the other side of ±1%.
• data quality: company-specific event; free-tier source
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'actual_eps': 1.66, 'band_pct': 1.0, 'estimate_eps': 1.35, 'event_date': '2026-08-04', 'fiscal_date_ending': '2026-06-30', 'surprise_pct': 22.963, 'symbol': 'AMD'}

Amazon earnings surprise — ▲ Bullish

• subject: AMZN quarterly EPS execution versus consensus
• chart: catalyst_earnings_amzn
• domain: Catalysts
• horizon: Reported quarter
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-07-30 / 2026-08-23 11:29:20+00:00
• interpretation: AMZN beat consensus EPS by 2.7%.
• evidence: Reported EPS 1.88 versus estimate 1.83.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: Next quarter's EPS surprise landing on the other side of ±1%.
• data quality: company-specific event; free-tier source
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'actual_eps': 1.88, 'band_pct': 1.0, 'estimate_eps': 1.83, 'event_date': '2026-07-30', 'fiscal_date_ending': '2026-06-30', 'surprise_pct': 2.7322, 'symbol': 'AMZN'}

Broadcom earnings surprise — ⊘ No read

• subject: AVGO quarterly EPS execution versus consensus
• chart: catalyst_earnings_avgo
• horizon: Reported quarter
• data through: 2026-09-06
• why no read: No qualifying data yet.
• reasons: provider value unverified — extreme surprise withheld
• data quality: company-specific event; extreme value — needs review; free-tier source

Alphabet earnings surprise — ⊘ No read

• subject: GOOGL quarterly EPS execution versus consensus
• chart: catalyst_earnings_googl
• horizon: Reported quarter
• data through: 2026-09-06
• why no read: No qualifying data yet.
• reasons: provider value unverified — extreme surprise withheld
• data quality: company-specific event; extreme value — needs review; free-tier source

Meta earnings surprise — ▼ Bearish

• subject: META quarterly EPS execution versus consensus
• chart: catalyst_earnings_meta
• domain: Catalysts
• horizon: Reported quarter
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-07-29 / 2026-09-01 01:19:14+00:00
• interpretation: META missed consensus EPS by 13.0%.
• evidence: Reported EPS 6.18 versus estimate 7.1.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: Next quarter's EPS surprise landing on the other side of ±1%.
• data quality: company-specific event; free-tier source
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'actual_eps': 6.18, 'band_pct': 1.0, 'estimate_eps': 7.1, 'event_date': '2026-07-29', 'fiscal_date_ending': '2026-06-30', 'surprise_pct': -12.9577, 'symbol': 'META'}

Microsoft earnings surprise — ▲ Bullish

• subject: MSFT quarterly EPS execution versus consensus
• chart: catalyst_earnings_msft
• domain: Catalysts
• horizon: Reported quarter
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-07-29 / 2026-09-06 13:28:11+00:00
• interpretation: MSFT beat consensus EPS by 12.6%.
• evidence: Reported EPS 4.74 versus estimate 4.21.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: Next quarter's EPS surprise landing on the other side of ±1%.
• data quality: company-specific event; free-tier source
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'actual_eps': 4.74, 'band_pct': 1.0, 'estimate_eps': 4.21, 'event_date': '2026-07-29', 'fiscal_date_ending': '2026-06-30', 'surprise_pct': 12.5891, 'symbol': 'MSFT'}

NVIDIA earnings surprise — ▲ Bullish

• subject: NVDA quarterly EPS execution versus consensus
• chart: catalyst_earnings_nvda
• domain: Catalysts
• horizon: Reported quarter
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-08-26 / 2026-09-05 11:11:50+00:00
• interpretation: NVDA beat consensus EPS by 6.2%.
• evidence: Reported EPS 2.22 versus estimate 2.09.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: Next quarter's EPS surprise landing on the other side of ±1%.
• data quality: company-specific event; free-tier source
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'actual_eps': 2.22, 'band_pct': 1.0, 'estimate_eps': 2.09, 'event_date': '2026-08-26', 'fiscal_date_ending': '2026-07-31', 'surprise_pct': 6.2201, 'symbol': 'NVDA'}

Oracle earnings surprise — ▲ Bullish

• subject: ORCL quarterly EPS execution versus consensus
• chart: catalyst_earnings_orcl
• domain: Catalysts
• horizon: Reported quarter
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-06-10 / 2026-09-02 23:41:24+00:00
• interpretation: ORCL beat consensus EPS by 13.3%.
• evidence: Reported EPS 1.79 versus estimate 1.58.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: Next quarter's EPS surprise landing on the other side of ±1%.
• data quality: company-specific event; free-tier source
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'actual_eps': 1.79, 'band_pct': 1.0, 'estimate_eps': 1.58, 'event_date': '2026-06-10', 'fiscal_date_ending': '2026-05-31', 'surprise_pct': 13.2911, 'symbol': 'ORCL'}

Implied OpenAI valuation — ◆ Mixed

• subject: market-implied OpenAI IPO valuation
• chart: catalyst_openai_valuation
• domain: Catalysts
• horizon: Near term
• legacy data date / knowledge date: 2026-09-06 / 2026-09-06 22:55:46+00:00
• interpretation: The probability-weighted implied cap is $1,231B (conditional on an IPO), -2.00% over seven days.
• evidence: Bucket-set 24h volume: $11,410.; Probability-weighted bucket midpoint: $1,231B.; Seven-day implied-cap change: -2.00%.
• conflicting evidence: none recorded
• What would change this call: The 7-day implied-valuation change crosses the opposite 5% band.
• data quality: bucket-midpoint convention; conditional on an IPO occurring; prediction-market probabilities; source records not yet linked; thin market liquidity
• metrics:
• unparsed: {'band_pct': 5.0, 'bucket_prob_sum': 0.077, 'full_set_prob_sum': 0.992, 'implied_cap_change_7d_pct': -1.995231612536108, 'implied_cap_usd_b': 1230.5194805194806, 'ipo_by_2026_prob': 0.07, 'no_ipo_by_2026_prob': 0.915, 'volume_24h_total': 11410.042747000001}

US AI policy events — ⊘ No read

• subject: US policy impact on AI-buildout beneficiaries and constraints
• chart: policy_us_ai_events
• horizon: Near term
• data through: 2026-09-06
• why no read: Tracked, but no qualifying data yet.
• reasons: policy documents not yet classified for impact
• data quality: none

Market Metrics

Power — load (EIA-930, latest complete day)

Power — prices (ISO LMP, latest day)

Compute — GPU rental (latest day)

• H100 1y contract (canonical $/hr): —
• H100 1y contract (offered $/hr): —
• H100 spot (canonical $/hr): —
• H100 spot (offered $/hr): 2.679
• as of: 2026-09-08
• frontier SKU: b300
• frontier spot (offered $/hr): 7.415
• offered-only day: 1
• sources: 2
• spot trend 30d %: —
• spot/contract spread %: —
• note: advertised listings only — canonical (transacted/indexed) columns are empty by construction until an index source is wired (docs/04 — Current limitations).

CEF NAV premium (latest per fund)

Supply chain (latest per series)

Appendix — Filed Capital-Structure Review

Confirmed facts below are analyst-reviewed against primary filings. Pending matches are not confirmed transactions. Direction appears only when an analyst separately records a subject, horizon, rationale, and falsifier.

Confirmed facts

• MICROSOFT · capex_commitment: The matched excerpt is narrative (AI infrastructure investment risk factor), but the same 10-K quantifies the forward commitment: "As of June 30, 2026, we had additional leases, primarily for datacenters, that had not yet commenced of $329.1 billion", commencing fiscal 2027-2033 with terms of 1-20 years (leases note). Context from the same filing: fiscal-2026 additions to property and equipment were $115,948M (vs $64,551M in fiscal 2025); operating lease liabilities $21,925M and finance lease liabilities $66,594M at Jun 30 2026. Amount recorded is the $329.1B uncommenced datacenter lease commitment, the filing's only quantified forward buildout commitment; commitment_type=other because the enum lacks a lease category. announcement_date is the 10-K filing date; effective_date the balance-sheet date. primary filing
• NVIDIA · capex_commitment: Verified against the 10-Q commitments schedule (R55 detail, accession 0001045810-26-000075): total future purchase commitments as of Jul 26 2026 are $366B, composed of supply and capacity $279B, cloud service agreements $29B, data center leases not commenced $25B, equity investments $25B, and capital expenditures $8B, spread remainder-FY2027 $120B / 2028 $100B / 2029 $98B / 2030 $16B / 2031 $10B / 2032+ $22B. Amount recorded is the $366B total contractual commitment; commitment_type=other because the total spans supply, cloud, lease, equity and capex categories (only $8B is the literal capital-expenditures line; breakdown given here). announcement_date is the 10-Q filing date; effective_date is the as-of balance date. primary filing
• NVIDIA · debt_issuance: Verified against two independent primary sources. NVIDIA 10-Q (accession 0001045810-26-000075, period ended Jul 26 2026) states: "In June 2026, we issued an aggregate of $25.0 billion of senior unsecured notes across seven tranches for general corporate purposes." The seven new tranches in the long-term debt schedule (4.250% due 2028 $3.5B; 4.350% due 2029 $3.5B; 4.500% due 2031 $4.0B; 4.750% due 2033 $3.5B; 4.950% due 2036 $4.0B; 5.550% due 2046 $3.0B; 5.625% due 2056 $3.5B) sum to exactly $25.0B and match the prospectus supplement (424B5 dated Jun 15 2026, settlement on or about Jun 18 2026, net proceeds ~$24.9B, consistent with the 10-Q cash-flow debt proceeds of $24.9B). maturity_date left null: seven tranche maturities (2028-2056) cannot be represented by the single-date field; extend the typed fact model for multi-tranche before building the maturity wall from this row. primary filing

Confirmed debt issuance by quarter

Exact maturity wall

Unavailable: no analyst-confirmed amount with an exact maturity date is available.

These are raw confirmed fundamentals, not directional signals. Currencies are not converted or combined, and narrative maturity ranges are not assigned fabricated dates.

Pending review

No candidate is awaiting review.

Rejected matches (not evidence)

Appendix — Data Coverage

Operational snapshot at report generation time. Run timestamps can post-date the evidence period; a source watermark can also be a scheduled future event date and does not extend the report's evidence window.

• Skipped (key-gated / source unavailable — honest degradation, not silence): korea_exports
• Errored last run: catalyst_markets, cef_nav, earnings_calendar, earnings_events, edgar_disclosures, eia930, eia930_subba, equity_ohlcv, gpu_spot, hf_model_stats, iso_lmp, model_catalog, model_usage, natgas, openrouter_activity, policy_events, tsmc_revenue

Methodology: the runtime is deterministic end to end. Each chart is labelled bullish, bearish, mixed, or no read for an explicitly named subject and horizon. No domain total, composite, or numeric confidence is calculated. Missing evidence remains unavailable; hits and misses publish at equal prominence. The sha256 of this issue's final markdown is stored append-only in aib_gold.report_issues for future external anchoring.